Comparing the government of President Raila Odinga with that of William Ruto

My recent article in the Sunday Nation underlined that the manifesto of a political party declares its policy intentions if the party wins an election and forms government.

The manifesto sets out the policy intentions that the party will implement to drive the country forward.

This article examines the manifestos by both Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition party of presidential candidate Raila Odinga and his running mate Martha Karua and that of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance of Mr William Ruto and his prospective deputy president Rigathi Gachagua.

There are several ways to examine whether the intentions are populist pronouncements to hoodwink voters or not.

One of these is to examine how the party promises to deliver public goods.

Public goods, when delivered, cannot be denied to some people and provided to others.

You cannot exclude some and give others. And you cannot make a profit out of them.

A focus on the delivery of public goods is central to a government that cares for its people rather than a few leaders.

A review of manifestos should also focus on the content of policies that impact the lives of the people and ordinary citizens.

One can also review proposals to support institutions of governance.

Governance institutions function to benefit everyone, irrespective of who supported or voted for the government.

Finally, the ability of any government to deliver its promises is dependent on the character of men and women appointed into government to implement these policies.

Lessons from the 1960s

The men and women appointed to office can destroy or strengthen institutions established to run public affairs.

If the men and women around a president are the types of individuals who are in office to enrich themselves, then the manifestos will not matter.

These are the lessons learnt from the 1960s to date. In Kenya, we had men (no women) around President Jomo Kenyatta.

We have learnt from the works of scholars like Prof Collin Leys and the late Prof Mike Cowen that the elites around Mzee Jomo were proud to move Kenya forward.

But they also took pride in Kikuyu chauvinism, which they prioritised over the Kenyan identity.

They pursued policies that amplified regional inequalities that are the basis of political grievances in Kenya.

However, they moved Kenya to a level that many others in Africa wanted to learn from.

And let there be no misinterpretation about the importance of men and women of good faith and high level of integrity in public office.

You may have very good policies and programmes, but your team will bring these down if the team comprises men and women who lack honour. This is what Chapter Six of the Constitution of Kenya is all about.

The 2022 election has gradually turned into an election about issues.

The conversations shaping decisions are the economy, cost of living, unemployment and what to do about corruption.

This is an important observation because past elections lacked this great focus on issues.

Ethnicity will be a factor, but there are certain demographic categories that couldn’t care less about ethnicity.

They want immediate solutions to the cost of living, unemployment and corruption.

The manifestos by the leading parties/alliances have, therefore, paid attention to public demand for solutions to these challenges.

There is no political leader who is not spelling out solutions to economic performance, cost of living and unemployment.

Not everyone has laid out details on addressing corruption. But how they will deal with it is certainly a concern to everyone.

Because of this, one can say the parties are not blind to popular demand for improving economic performance and addressing challenges that the people face.

The difference lies in their approach. In some areas, there is a big-government approach.

In other areas, they make proposals that ignore the existence of devolution and devolved services. And it will also matter who they appoint in their government.

It bears mention that governments that care for their people establish social welfare programmes to cushion the poor.

The problem we have in our society is that the economic and political elite prefer to exploit poverty by promising the poor a good life that will come one day.

But this day will never come because the political elite is happy to exploit the conditions of the poor to remain in power by promising hope and hope without end.

They view measures that fight poverty as a waste of resources. But they are the same elite who steal public funds meant for these poor programmes that change people’s lives.

The Azimio manifesto – the government of Raila Odinga and Martha Karua

It appears that the government of President Raila Odinga and Deputy President Martha Karua will be strong on issues of governance and specifically the rule of law and reform of governance institutions.

The manifesto discusses what many people forgot since the passing of the 2010 Constitution.

It spells out commitment to realising Article 10 of the Constitution on national values and principles of governance.

These values include the rule of law, democracy and participation of the people.

There is an emphasis on human dignity, equity, social justice and non-discrimination.

Important too are good governance, integrity, transparency and accountability in the conduct of public affairs.

These values and principles of governance have been an anathema to the Jubilee government since 2013.

Yet these are the foundations for a new Kenya that the 2010 Constitution sought to nurture. We lost them.

And after weakening their foundation, corruption increased.

The Azimio manifesto promises to rekindle commitment to Article 10.

The manifesto underlines the need to fight corruption and deepen the rule of law.

It also emphasises the need to enhance public participation in governance and ensure people hold public officials and other leaders accountable.

Based on these proposals, one can say that the Azimio government has got it right in terms of what is ailing Kenya: weak rule of law and deteriorating democratic governance.

Azimio is strong on public good

One important public good that the Azimio government will focus on is the rule of law and promoting equal access to justice.

The government promises to protect and defend human rights. Improving efficiency in the administration of justice is also underlined as an important reform measure in this respect.

This suggests that the Azimio government, going by the manifesto of the party, will be strong on issues of rights and the rule of law. Indeed, these are the key blockages to development in Kenya.

They are the cracks that make it possible for a few to grow rich and for the majority to grow poorer.

On this point of rule of law, the candidacy of Martha Karua sells pretty well.

She is the strongest link that Azimio has in terms of strengthening governance and fighting off a group of individuals that begin to scout for tenders after every election.

She will certainly be opposed to the unethical behaviour of the Jubilee crowd that will be filling the corridors of power to shift the Raila Odinga government to their side or continue benefiting from corruption.

She is the bulwark against the tide of corruption that has built up from 2013 to the present day.

Focus on the economy and social transformation

The August 2022 elections, however, are not about addressing the rule of law or improving governance conditions only.

These are not the top priority that Kenyans want the government to address.

There is concern that the well-being of many people has not improved by any big margin from independence in 1963.

Today, all politicians are talking about how they will address poverty, ignorance and disease.

These are the same issues everyone talked about in the 1960s and 70s.

Azimio’s focus on social transformation in terms of improving the lives of the ordinary poor is spot-on.

There are millions of poor households that go to bed hungry because they do not have income for food. Children drop out of school because they have no food.

The proposal to provide support to these millions is itself an effective approach to improving the conditions of many poor people.

Many governments across the world are using similar approaches to lift many from poverty.

In Brazil in 2003, the government of Lula da Silva introduced Bolsa Familia as a conditional cash transfer for poor households.

This was a conditional cash transfer because it required the families to send their kids to school and to ensure they are food secure.

Namibia and several other governments have done such programmes too.

Back to the economy of the Azimio government. One strong aspect of the manifesto is the emphasis on economic diplomacy and the emphasis that Kenya’s diplomatic missions play a role in promoting trade and investment.

There is also a strong emphasis on manufacturing and improving the ICT infrastructure to bolster economic growth and performance.

Of course, the manufacturing sector is the responsibility of the private sector. With good policies and tax incentives, the manufacturing sector can grow on its own.

This is where the Azimio manifesto becomes ambitious. All that the government needs to do is to strategise on how to strengthen the counties' economies.

This is implied in the approach to small and medium enterprises and the Jua Kali sector.

These are important but the government should just reduce the number of taxes that they pay, review regulations, remove coercive handles and give them the freedom they require. The rest is for them to exploit in freedom and thrive.

The UDA manifesto – the William Ruto government

The manifesto by Kenya Kwanza also responds to the need for economic recovery, cost of living and developmental challenges.

There is a good analysis of the challenges facing the country and how we got here.

One can see footprints of technical experts rather than footprints of political leaders in it and this is what will matter in implementation. It has five core pillars to induce inclusive growth.

These are agriculture, micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing, healthcare, digital superhighway and creative economy.

Again these are tied to the need for economic recovery and addressing the challenges of unemployment.

These five pillars are important but it is the absence of improving governance that weakens their foundation.

In fact, the manifesto has been criticised by some for giving little attention to the fight against corruption.

All the same, the chapter on governance emphasises several aspects of governance including ensuring the independence of governance institutions and building their capacity to do things right.

There is a catalogue of what the government will focus on to reduce abuse of power.

These are all those things that many political leaders and senior government bureaucrats thrive on when in power.

This is an ambitious plan that will be difficult to implement.

Centralising mind

But there is no doubt that President William Ruto would concentrate power around himself.

Power will be concentrated in the executive. This has been his tendency – to approach everything with a centralising mind.

There will be only one centre of power. His determination to appoint Rigathi Gachagua against arguments by close allies reflects the type of centre that will control the government.

The first victim of his approach will be Article 10 of the Constitution.

Accountability, transparency and rule of law will be eroded by this tendency.

The second casualty will be the technical group of advisers that have put together the manifesto.

His manifesto contains everything you require to do when those you appoint are free to think and implement these policies.

But the question to reflect on is: will this happen with a centralising and control tendency?

As mentioned earlier, a manifesto is about intentions.

The men and women appointed to run the government and more so those around the president will determine the course the country will take.

To some, manifestos must be strong in development projects because they provide enough rent. Examples from 2013 are many.

Prof Karuti Kanyinga is based at the Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi, [email protected], @karutikk