Azimio polls a frozen powder keg

The party primaries staged by Deputy President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) were far from perfect. There were plenty of logistical cock-ups, manipulation, ballot stuffing and sheer incompetence. And, of course, many of those fellows who scream ‘Hatupangwingwi!’ the shrillest and loudest were properly ‘pangwad’ by machinations from Dr Ruto’s Karen Road nerve centre. 

The nominations left a lot of sore and disgruntled losers loudly crying foul and, in time-honoured Kenyan fashion, threatening to abandon a party and presidential candidate they hitherto so rabidly supported. Yet with all their faults, the nominations were a qualified success — at least by the very low standards expected of Kenyan political parties. 

Other than the free passes issued to Ruto’s favourites under that opaque process euphemistically referred to as “negotiated democracy”, UDA deserves plaudits for even attempting the herculean task of countrywide party primaries for all five available positions — the presidential ticket was given to Ruto as a birthright — in a single day.

There were many hiccups that will clearly have ramifications on UDA and the wider Kenya Kwanza alliance, comprising Amani National Congress of former Vice-President Musalia Mudavadi, Ford-Kenya of Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula and a smattering of fringe one-man outfits. 

However, the fallout in the Ruto electoral vehicle could be minuscule compared to what awaits the rival Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalition. Azimio’s principal partners — President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), as well as the Wiper party of another former Vice-President, Kalonzo Musyoka — are not holding anything resembling open party primaries on a national scale.

Mockery of democracy

They have preferred piecemeal polls in just a few regions; for the most part, they have just been dishing out uncontested nomination certificates to the privileged few who catch the favour of the party bosses. Though they call it negotiation, consensus or decisions informed by ‘scientific’ opinion polls, the process is riddled with favouritism that makes it a mockery of democracy.

The big problem, as to be seen in ODM’s Nyanza strongholds and Jubilee’s central Kenya zones, is that it favours incumbents or prominent personalities, many of whom may be well past their sell-by date or otherwise will hardly excite the electorate.

The perfect illustration is that Azimio will not produce an inspirational story like that of Linet ‘Toto’ Chepkorir, the 24-year-old who became an overnight sensation after beating seasoned contenders to the UDA ticket for Bomet County Woman Representative to the National Assembly.

Indeed, across Ruto’s Rift Valley strongholds and parts of central Kenya, the big story from the UDA polls was the felling of veritable giants who might have taken nomination for granted given their closeness to the DP and vocal support for his campaign. That contrasts starkly with the recycling of same tired politicos in Mr Odinga’s bastions.

Failure to even make a pretence of free and fair party primaries will leave room for much more intense rebellion by unsatisfied aspirants. Foisting unpopular candidates for Governor, Parliament and County Assemblies might also lead to voter apathy that will directly impact on Mr Odinga’s vote basket at the presidential polls.

Disaster waiting to happen

Then there is the issue of the stability of the two main contending formations. Ruto had to beat a retreat from his earlier insistence on UDA as his sole electoral vehicle once he struck alliance deals with the Mudavadi and Wetang’ula parties, which then opened the door for the minor outfits ‘owned’ by a motley bunch of individuals.

It remains clear in Kenya Kwanza, however, that UDA is in the driving seat and will not be ceding territory in downstream races except in very limited circumstances. Competition between the Mt Kenya bloc and the western Kenya Mudavadi axis for the presidential running mate slot has been evident but has also been managed to mute public spats.

Azimio, by contrast, is a Tower of Babel. President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga bent over backwards to accommodate Mr Musyoka, but his constant tantrums and ultimatums indicate an implosion to come. There is also the fact that the main constituent parties are far from agreed on how to choose coalition candidates for the downstream races.

It appears that, in some significant vote baskets in the battlegrounds of Nairobi, the coastal region, central Kenya and southern Rift Valley, western Kenya and Ukambani, candidates from ODM, Jubilee, Wiper and a few other parties will be busy fighting each other and dividing Azimio votes — to Ruto’s benefit.

Mr Odinga’s latest political vehicle could be a disaster waiting to happen — unless a firm hand take charge.

[email protected]. www.gaitho.co.ke @MachariaGaitho