Gema headache for DP, own goal for Handshake

What a time to be a fan of Kenya’s action-filled political game! The off-field High Court decision 10 days ago slamming the brakes on the BBI constitutional referendum made it quite hard to call the 2022 curtain-raisers for anyone.

The results of last week’s by-elections and the tectonic movements in Mt Kenya in recent days have thrown up even more intrigues.

But some key moments of the matches and the side games were worth highlighting. 

Deputy President William Ruto publicly savoured the wins by two surrogate parties PEP and UDA in Juja Constituency and Rurii Ward respectively.

The victories came with the bonus of psychologically embarrassing his boss on the former’s home turf. But away from the glare of cameras, Dr Ruto will be feeling very nervous.

Political fault line 

The showdowns between Jubilee factions and voter apathy in the by-elections signal an imminent implosion in a voting bloc he’ll need to the last man for any realistic chance of winning the 2022 presidential race.

The Tangatanga group, buoyed by its victory, will be driving a hard bargain. Speculation about competing ambitions for the running mate position suggests yet more trouble ahead for Dr Ruto.

Then there is the defiant march by National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi to Mukurwe wa Nyagathanga (the Kikuyu shrine) to stake a claim on the Gema throne yesterday. It opens another political fault line on the east and further complicates pre-election negotiations with the region.

While Dr Ruto appeared to have the game wrapped up in Gema, it’s all to play for all over again. The Handshake coalition of President Uhuru Kenyatta’s faction and Raila Odinga’s ODM will no doubt be hoping the bumpy playing fields slow down Dr Ruto’s campaign.

Terse statement

But last week’s by-elections once again exposed its strange ability to undermine its cause by scoring own goals. ODM’s Pavel Oimeke may have won in Bonchari, but his victory was marred by claims of intimidation of voters by police and other administration officials.

Mr Odinga issued an uncharacteristically terse statement criticising the involvement of the state machinery in the by-election and blamed some unnamed officials of trying to sabotage the Handshake – his cooperation agreement with President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Other party officials were blunt, blaming Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i for the alleged state terror. For players who have toyed with the idea of lining up on the same side in 2022, this was yet another moment of madness – one of them scoring a dramatic own goal.

In March, ODM also accused its Handshake partners of unleashing violence on its supporters during the Matungu by-election. The party’s grievance-mongering over Bonchari, coupled with the suspicions within its ranks that some people in the President’s inner circle are preparing a succession line-up without Mr Odinga on it, spells doom for the Handshake.

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