How different might Kenya be in year 2223?

Use USA as an example. In 1861, America went to civil war primarily for two reasons — southern states wanted to split from the union and maintain slavery. Their nemesis headed by President Abraham Lincoln opposed this. If confederates arose now from the dead and saw how USA has prospered after the Union was preserved and slavery abolished, they would be surprised by the folly of their cause. It is therefore wise to do the correct prediction of the future and move one’s society there ahead of everyone else.

Predict the future

Kenyan leaders should therefore predict the future, and move there faster. Attempting to predict the future is a complex discipline. Many assumptions have to be made. However, some have attempted to do so by observing trends and making an educated guess.

An American Engineer called John Watkins in 1900 in a piece published in Ladies Home Journal made a number of predictions about how the world will be in year 2000. He was surprisingly correct. He predicted rising height of Americans, mobile phones, slowing population growth, television, amongst other.

Mugo Wa Kibiru in Kikuyuland foretold a snake emitting smoke will meander the territory, ostensibly meaning a train. He was correct. But Thomas Robert Malthus 1798 treatise An Essay on the Principles of Population remains one of the most iconic academic misses. He predicted population growth will exterminate human race. History proved him wrong — improvements on various technologies did mitigate population explosions dramatically. In fact, humans prospered.

So, the following predictions on how Kenya might be in year 2223 might be wrong or right.

First, in 2223 there will be no country called Kenya. Ethnic identities like Kikuyus or Luos, Kambas or Luhyas will have disappeared. Chances are, one world government will have been established or at least a regional government in Africa (United States of Africa?) will have displaced Kenya.

Forces that are pulling distinct countries towards dissolution are already moving fast.

Global community

With the Internet creating a global community; countries integrating more upon finding regional blocs as better bargaining platforms; emergence of a global single currency; economic rise of highly populated places like China, India, USA and the European Union as opposed to smaller countries, it is only a matter of time before these factors torpedo national boundaries.

Multilateral institutions have only enhanced their power and reach. For example, the establishment of an International Criminal Court and development of legal doctrines that respect no boundaries like the doctrine of universal jurisdiction. All these are a pointer towards a worldwide convergence of social and legal norms – prerequisite of a one world government.

Therefore, in 2223, the world will be looking back and seeing how retrogressive we were in 2023 when Kenya’s Parliament grilled harshly those behind technology company World Coin for digitally recording Kenyans’ eyes in exchange for an amount in cryptocurrency. In future, a single cryptocurrency will be the norm.

Signs of the coming death of our beloved ethnic identities are easier to detect. Look no further than your child, who is most likely hooked to phone games and TV. All are in English. In school, they no longer speak vernacular. We are basically bringing up English men and women. The loss of our local languages might be faster than the establishment of a single world government.

The languages of the future are English and Mandarin. A language has to underpin technology for it to survive. Can students code programmes in Somali or Maa? If not, our languages will not compete favourably. United Nations has already officially declared that at least 50 per cent of today’s spoken languages will be extinct or seriously endangered by 2100. More pessimistic, but also realistic estimates claim that 90-95 per cent will become extinct or seriously endangered by the end of this century. Most of these languages are indigenous. Humanity may well have only 300 to 600 oral languages left that are unthreatened by the end of this century.”

Modern evils

Incidentally, these two possible outcomes are not necessarily bad. They might help cure one of our most enduring modern evils – poverty.

Currently, the world produces enough food for everyone on earth. Various studies have affirmed the world produces enough food to feed 1.5 times of the global population (10 billion) — there are currently 7.5 billion people in the world. Waste and inefficient food distribution system explain the food deficit. One world government would cure this. The key enabler of this inefficiency is simple: law. The net effect of laws (constitutions, statutes and regulations) is to create barriers to free flow of goods and services.

You see the immigrants currently drowning in Mediterranean Sea and upon arrival in Europe they get deported back to Africa? In 2223 they will be worshipped as heroes who heralded the breakage of artificial country barriers erected by irrational human laws. Because what powers immigration is a rational economic consideration: Europe has a labour deficit and Africa has excess idle labour. It is only a matter of time before this self-evident truth becomes apparent and laws get aligned to this economic logic.

So, what should the current generation of Kenyans do? Simple, accept this coming reality sooner than everyone else. We create a Kenya that is more open and internationalist in its outlook. We integrate more with the world. We fight poverty faster. We reach 2223 faster than Uganda, Tanzania and the rest of Africa. We shall be the ones to decide who sits where as the rest join in.

Dr Kang’ata is the Governor of Murang’a County. Email: [email protected]