During the burial of Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi's mother in Vihiga last January, trade union chief Francis Atwoli challenged President Uhuru Kenyatta to get a handle on his Mt Kenya region, which has been in full-blown rebellion mode. The President reacted angrily.
When Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala repeated the same, Uhuru got angrier. When he rose to speak, it was to warn that people should not mistake a rained-on lion to be a cat. His Gatundu nemesis, MP Moses Kuria, the next day answered with scorn that a rained-on cat was still a cat.
Is Uhuru in control anymore of his Jubilee strongholds? The haemorrhage to Tangatanga continues unabated, the most recent being the defections of Kiambu Woman Representative Gathoni wa Muchomba, Githunguri MP Gabriel Kago, Nakuru Town East MP David Gakiria and Subukia MP Samuel Gakobe. Reportedly more are to follow.
Whether you call that "headwinds" as Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru does, or "challenges" as party Secretary-General Raphael Tuju prefers, hides nothing about the reality. Jubilee is in a mess.
Controversial ‘coronation’
Right now the party is fighting tooth and nail to retain the Kiambaa seat in Kiambu, which ordinarily would have been a walkover.
For the first time ever, the Meru, Embu and Mbeere are breaking away, defining themselves as Mt Kenya East. They are distancing themselves from the Kikuyu of Mt Kenya West.
The quarrel started over the controversial "coronation" of National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi as Gema "spokesman", a venture that was pushed by a cousin of Uhuru, who may or may not have been acting on his behalf.
Embarrassing finger-pointing has followed about who were the fake elders at the coronation and who were genuine. The same Uhuru cousin was later seen parading his "elders" at the Karen residence of the Deputy President.
Then there is the Uhuru succession confusion. Whatever is the succession plan appears predicated on Raila Odinga, Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang'ula playing ball and agreeing to work together. Suppose they don't? What is Uhuru offering as inducements? What is Plan B? In fact, the Okoa Kenya trio of Mudavadi, Kalonzo and Wetang'ula have mostly engaged in shouting matches with Raila, whose ODM party is reportedly crafting an alliance with Jubilee. Meanwhile, the BBI remains stuck in the courts.
Uhuru loyalists are thoroughly dispirited, particularly in his Mt Kenya base. The question they are asking is: after electing him three times with high euphoria, is Uhuru surely leaving them in this kind of unprecedented, confused mess?
I have heard Jubilee MPs and MCAs bitterly complain that staying in Jubilee is ruining their political careers. The President doesn't seem invested in offering a lifeline to his drowning foot soldiers by moving decisively to salvage his party's fortunes.
The timelines are very tight. There's only a year left in his presidency. Which brings up the question: Does Uhuru know what he is doing? Does he have any plan? Assuming he has, why is he leaving it too late?
And who is to blame for the sorry state of affairs in Jubilee? Officials of the party such as vice-chairman David Murathe are a favourite scapegoat. True, they are quite often clueless when it comes to the grassroots mood, but they are just proxies. The real problem is at the top. The party's apex doesn't step down to engage the membership. In turn there's no feedback. Once Jubilee was re-elected in 2017, that link was lost. The Jubilee leadership went back into self-isolation.
It's to expect too much of Jubilee governors, MPs and MCAs to do the rescue job on their own when the party leadership has gone AWOL. The party rank and file are kept in the dark as major policy moves like the Handshake, BBI and the latest project of the coalition with ODM are initiated. There's no buy-in. The assumption that this rank and file will automatically fall in lock-step is wrong. This has cost Jubilee, and the President personally, dearly in terms of support.
Uhuru seems to live under the misconception that overseeing the implementation of development projects and managing the politics of the country and party are mutually exclusive. That you must abandon one to pursue the other. As a matter of fact, they should always go hand in hand. There's no gain in concentrating only on beautiful infrastructure when your political base is imploding.
And stop taking your community for granted. No wonder they are rebelling. The very worst you will do is to leave them exposed to an existential threat which you perfectly know and understand. If you allow this to happen, you will never be forgiven.
Be ruthless with rebels. Your late patron Daniel arap Moi was very good at it. Buy them out, cajole, cut deals, even armtwist when other methods fail. And for heaven's sake don't treat us anymore to a phoney war on corruption. Get real. For starters, what became of the lifestyle audits?
The perception out there is that you are too soft. Sadly, that's why the rebels don't bother about you.
