Immediately after the Christmas hangover wore off, Uganda took Kenya to the East African Court of Justice in Arusha, Tanzania, after Nairobi denied its state-owned oil marketer a licence to operate locally and handle Kampala’s imports.
The Ugandan government had complained about predatory Kenyan middlemen who were jacking up the cost of fuel products, handing its landlocked economy needless high prices at the pump. Kenya spurned the Uganda National Oil Corporation (UNOC) in November, so Uganda went to the regional court on December 28 to force its hand in granting the permissions.
There are two things here that East African regional watchers wouldn’t have bet on when President William Ruto was sworn in last September. Dr Ruto swept to the presidency with the image of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni’s bosom buddy.
Long uneasy with Azimio la Umoja flagbearer Raila Odinga , even though its political leader was then-President Uhuru Kenyatta , who had friends in high places in Kampala, the Uganda Establishment rooted energetically for Ruto.
As the vote was counted, state politicians, security officials and Uganda’s ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) loyalists were losing more sleep than the Kenya Kwanza camp in Kenya. They were talking about “our side”, “our candidate”.
Conspiracy theories spun about how Kampala was funnelling money into the Kenya Kwanza campaign and how Museveni had personally put his finger to tilt the scales for Ruto. Upon his victory, there was talk of how a youthful President Ruto would be a grateful apprentice at the feet of President Museveni.
At his swearing-in, Ruto lathered Museveni with praise as an East African elder statesman, the “mzee with the hat” rose to the occasion to soak in the accolades. But the Ruto government didn’t end the many previous blockages of Ugandan goods to Kenya and seemed to double down on the Uhuru-era hurdles. The licence denial to UNOC was, as Ugandans would say, the last throw of mud at Museveni’s stomach. This was not to have happened.
The second surprise here is that Uganda has taken Kenya to court. Museveni has disdain for narrow legalism, and viewing himself as a pan-Africanist with the persuasive power of a revolutionary, considers trade feuds as small things that he can sort out with charm over the phone, or a sit-down with tea and scones at State House.
A story is told that, when he pushed to amend the constitution in 2005 to remove presidential term limits, a Military High Command meeting was called to discuss the issue. Several members were opposed to amending a constitution that had only been passed 10 years earlier and spoke about the need to be faithful to its spirit.
Usually, he would have made his case for amendment forcibly, but on that occasion he was amused. After a long chuckle, he asked those opposing the move when they became constitutionalists because, he said, if they were, they would not all have gone to the bush to fight the guerrilla war that brought them to power in 1986. Nothing was more unconstitutional than taking up arms against a supposedly popularly elected government. He won the day.
Nairobi’s action on the Ugandan fuel affair reveals how surprisingly dry-eyed Ruto can be in his view of Kenyan business interests relative to other nations.
Uganda moving to court is, perhaps, a sign that the old lion of Kampala is mellowing and less assured of his pan-Africanist magic in a continent, and region, that is changing fast and has finally become unmoored from the Mwai Kibaki-era clubby ways of doing East African business.
Other quiet dynamics are at play. Last year, cocky about its status as the leading African coffee exporter, Uganda announced a two-year suspension of its membership from the International Coffee Organisation (ICO), feeling it had some clout to do deals outside the body.
It didn’t quite go to plan but was saved by improved coffee prices, which have seen its coffee near $1 billion for 2023. But it got egg on its face. Australia is one of the leading buyers of Ugandan coffee. But with Uganda out of the ICO, Australian buyers require Ugandan exporters to have their coffee certified by Kenyan organisations. Since coffee is a big deal for Uganda, it became hostage to Kenya, weakening Kampala’s hand considerably against Nairobi.
The Ugandan economy, especially the agricultural sector, is doing fairly well from the Museveni government’s “stay-out-of-the-way” policy. Remember, even the Uganda central bank has gone for two years now without a substantive governor and its currency is doing very well.
Museveni, therefore, has a lot of produce at home that he can’t offload. In his New Year message, he bemoaned protectionism by EAC countries against Ugandan goods. In recent months, Tanzania has also done Uganda in, and the South Sudanese take and don’t pay. General Museveni has too many fronts to fight on. Any help from Arusha will be welcome.
Mr Onyango-Obbo is a journalist, writer, and curator of the “Wall of Great Africans”. @cobbo3
