Winston Churchill is quoted to have said democracy is the worst form of government – only that there is no better form.
One of the unintended but obvious consequences of democracy is its propensity to split societies. The split can be along class lines – like in the West where right wing parties appeal to the well-to-do and the left wing appeals to the working classes. The split can be along tribal lines like in Kenya. The split can be along regional lines or even urban-rural divides.
But it can also be between elites and commoners. The elite comprise the educated, the rich and fellow leaders. The commoners comprise the average grassroots voters, like farmers and hawkers.
In a society where there is such a split, the elite and commoners will see political reality differently and each will occupy a different political compartment.
The elite motivation is to put a leader who is cultured in their ways, affords them a hearing, respects institutions they hold and shares the spoils. The commoners aspirations are to put into office a leader who looks and acts like them and who understands their struggles. The sly politician merely wants to win – and he or she knows where the numbers lie.
The current Meru County political saga exemplifies this split. The incumbent has won consistently riding on the commoners revolution.
With a husband who is guitar wizard, the commoners have carried her into victory against so much political current twice – first as Meru Woman Representative against an urbane lawyer and second as a governor, against the experienced lawyer Kiraitu Murunga plus the UDA party wave. But now there is a counter-revolution.
Nairobi's former governor Mike Sonko was a classic example of a successful elite counter-revolution. He had won a by-election in Makadara constituency against an elite wave. He went on to repeat the same in senatorial and gubernatorial contests for Nairobi. But the elite counter revolution succeeded when he was ousted, first from governorship via impeachment engineered by political elites, and second permanently from politics via a court judgement.
But there are many historical examples where elite counter revolutions have failed, with dramatic consequences. At times elite counter revolutions can instigate a swing to autocracy and dictatorships. The best example is the story of Julius Caesar.
Julius Caesar was a career Roman military general who lived a few years before Jesus was born. Rome was the sole super power then and was ruled by a senate that shared some powers with the executive branch, the consul.
Julius Caesar had at the time become famous due to his success in conquering foreign lands on behalf of Rome. That created jealousy with many senators. He was recalled back to Rome by Senate.
He agonised returning back peacefully – that was the legal thing to do; but he feared he would be going straight into his enemies hands and probably be arrested on fake charges. But if he returned home otherwise, he would trigger a civil war, which was undesirable.
With his loyal troops behind him, he reached River Rubicon, which defined the northern boundary of Italy.
He crossed it while armed – a clear signal to the senate that Julius was confrontational. A civil war broke out and Julius Caesar won. On assuming consulship, he exercised power in ways that made him popular with the commoners but drew rage amongst the elites, in particular the senators.
They conspired and ultimately assassinated him. But this proved unpopular with the people and it triggered a series of events that swung the Roman state towards concentration of power away from the senate.
The elites intention was to protect the Republican status of Rome. But the assassination led to emergence of an empire with political powers concentrated upon an emperor; contrary to the original aspirations.
A modern example is El Salvador. The South American country has experienced gang violence and for the longest time, it had the highest rate of homicide.
A young politician aged 38 called Nayib Bukele was elected as President in 2019, gaining 53 per cent of total votes. Now his approval ratings range 90 percent after he jailed gangs without due legal course and upended oversight institutions. Homicide rates have plunged to almost zero but elites are up in arms, complaining democracy is on the decline.
Rodrigo Duterte of Philippines did the same – he caused extra judicial killings against gangs, lost the elite and civil society's favour but gained favour of the masses that on leaving power, the people elected his daughter as vice president.
The duty to amend such split does not lie with the commoners. Their aspirations tend to be humble and simple; all they want is security, peace and progress.
It is the elites who need to go out of their way to understand the aspirations of the people and respond to them. By holding coveted positions in society, the elites need to craft solutions that attempt to remedy the peoples problems.
Otherwise the commoners will put into office a demagogue who speaks their language and acts like them. And the elites can do nothing about it except plot a political "assassination" that can terribly go wrong.
And elites often do not see when they are falling into a political trap – like their decision to halt Governor Kawira's 'Okolea' meetings where she gives goodies to the public. That ban will only be exploited to their disadvantage.
