Smart people have no emotions—only objectives, goals. And when they do, they suppress them so that they can think clearly. The Kenya Kwanza administration is on another level of emotion (and I don’t mean this in a bad way).
The leadership is on a dopamine binge, flooding their brains with feel-good hormones by dominating, aggressing, intimidating, threatening, demeaning, abusing, bullying, boasting, talking big.
Yet when you do a calm assessment of the outcomes so far, you realise that party is all about psychology (a deft capacity to convince the poor and suffering that it is not their fault, it is the fault of the rich, also known as “dynasties” and “cartels”), grievance politics, effective myth-making (poor boy made good) and lots and lots of promises. No brilliant policy.
In 10 months, Kenya Kwanza is basically enroute to talking itself out of a job. The only thing keeping the coalition in power is constitutional guardrails, the guys in Subarus apparently executing citizens and the lack of an effective spark to ignite the anger and resentment that the people feel towards their government. How they managed to move from the supposed fanatical following to this is a study in hubris.
So what have they done with their first year in office? There has been a dramatic turn-around in relations between Kenya and the West. This is driven by the choice that the President has make for us; he chose the West, where the previous government had chosen China. I was surprised when Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi showed up last week, early in the morning like Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua heading to the office to fondle old files.
Hustler Fund has been a hit. I don’t know much about it, but 16 million people have borrowed some Sh38 billion, the taxpayer has pumped in Sh11 billion for lending at eight per cent, some press reports say. People are borrowing small amounts to put in their businesses and possibly consumption and this is probably a great thing.
The restoration of calm in the Rift Valley and suppression of cattle rustling and banditry is a bright spot and a big plus for Interior Cabinet Secretary Prof Kithure Kindiki. His compassionate and diligent handling of the Shakahola disaster is at variance with the rest of the Cabinet, which seems to be treating the slaughter of 300 people, so far, as “normal”.
On the other side of the scale, you will probably have read press reports about President Suluhu Hassan speaking in amazement about the sheer number of investors, 2,000 in one month, that have flocked Tanzania, because “kwa jirani kumewaka moto” (Kenya is on fire). To me, this nothing short of the fall of Kenya. Because people have lost, or are losing, confidence in Kenya as a safe place to put their investment. Once you have opened your office in Dodoma or Dar es Salaam, you are not likely to move it back to Nairobi next month. Of all the things that have gone south, this may be the worst.
On agriculture, milk is doing OK in most places, at around Sh50 a litre. Maize has gone nova, between Sh6,500 and Sh5,000 for a 90kg bag in some places. This is not good news for ugali-loving families but it means in those places where farmers got government fertiliser many growers will break even and possibly turn a tidy profit. One hopes that the focus on importation of food—maize, rice, sugar, beans—is a short-term thing to bring down the cost; that the bigger effort is on growing sufficient stocks to feed the country, maintain a reserve and export.
On the economy, probably the worst decision is the targeting of the edible oils segment, apparently because of “cartels” exploiting consumers. I can’t pretend to understand the government intervention by having traders import the oil on behalf of Kenya National Trading Corporation and to do the same thing with bar soap, but in my books anything that leads to the loss of jobs, unless it is costing lives, is unforgivable. I don’t know how much bar soap goes for and I agree that its users should not be exploited by cartels. I also do know that importing such things, in a country where I can’t tell you the rate of unemployment because it will depress you, is plain stupid.
On social welfare, the National Health Insurance Fund is unreliable, restricted and hardly works. Yes, it had been abused by corrupt hospitals but the frustration it causes, especially given that health is such a vulnerability, is immense. The National Social Security Fund is a black hole. I saw a story saying Kenyan retirees are some of the poorest in the world. In fairness, there some pensions and saving reforms afoot, but their effect will be felt in the future.
The return of Al-Shabaab, resurgence of extra-judicial executions and withdrawal from Somalia are big causes of concern.
In short? There is no reason for Kenya Kwanza to feel so hot. They are struggling; they should sit down with the opposition and make a deal to heal the country and get things back on track.
