Will the new One Kenya Alliance hack it?

Last Tuesday, the Amani National Congress (ANC), Wiper and Ford Kenya parties formalised their withdrawal from the Nasa coalition and officially launched the One Kenya Alliance (OKA).

The usual speeches and platitudes were made – about the occasion being a new dawn in Kenya; about OKA resolving the enduring political and economic issues facing the country. And they, of course, expressed confidence they would emerge victorious in the general election next year. 

One interesting observation was that the fourth leg of OKA, Kanu, was missing. Kanu chairman Gideon Moi seems to have bolted. The excuse the party gave was that they couldn't contravene the law by joining another coalition when they are already tied to another one with Jubilee. Confusingly, Wiper itself entered a cooperation deal with Jubilee in June last year. 

I was not entirely surprised by Moi's absence from the OKA launch. He shares a lot more with President Uhuru Kenyatta than with the OKA principals. 

I suspect whatever deals Uhuru is working out with those who want to succeed him, Moi is privy to them. Besides, Moi serves as a useful channel of communication between the President himself and OKA, as well as between OKA and the other formation in the succession mix – ODM. 

ODM had already abruptly announced they were abandoning Nasa days before the OKA event. It was not what they would have preferred. 

This was clearly a pre-emptive move. It had been obvious for months the OKA triumvirate were determined to jump out of Nasa and leave ODM holding the can. ODM wasn't keen at all being made the fall guys. 

Money from the Political Parties Fund was supposed to be the source of the trouble in Nasa. 
ODM got the coalition kitty but refused to share it out with the partners. That became an issue of loud grievance. Only recently did ODM agree to share, hoping that it would salvage Nasa. 

Killing the coalition

However it came too late. Yet money was just a smokescreen. The real beef was respect, or rather the feeling by ODM's partners that the party disrespected them and was a bully. 

ANC's Musalia Mudavadi had been the most outspoken about dissolving Nasa, continually complaining about a "trust deficit", a situation for which he directly blamed ODM.

Wiper's Kalonzo Musyoka, for his part, seemed somewhat less enthusiastic about killing the coalition until the way ahead was clearer. 

However, Wiper knew without joining in solidarity with those favouring an immediate dissolution, it would be left vulnerable vis-a-vis ODM, and with a weaker hand to play. 

The OKA leaders bring together different sets of strengths – and liabilities. 

Without doubt, Mudavadi's biggest strength is his clarity in economic policy articulation. On the burden of overloaded national debt for instance, nobody among the presidential aspirants – be it in OKA, ODM, Jubilee or Tangatanga – speaks with better authority and conviction. This is a plus in a coming election campaign where economic policies are certain to feature greatly. 

But it is Kalonzo who brings in a largely under-appreciated value. As an individual, he brings on board a rare quality among politicians: personal integrity.

In his long political life, Kalonzo  has hardly been entangled in any corruption scandals, give or take some relatively minor land purchase shenanigans in the past. 

Cash. Serious cash

Moi is not entirely inconsequential in the line-up if he opts to rejoin OKA. He brings something to the table the others in the team are not as well endowed with as he is. Cash. Serious cash.

OKA may have good men; the problem is whether they can finance an expensive presidential campaign without substantial outside contributions.

In my estimation, Kalonzo's Wiper party has the strongest grip on its ethnic base compared to its OKA partners. 

That is despite the challenge Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua intends to mount as a presidential candidate next year and despite Kalonzo's other problems with Governors Charity Ngilu and Kivutha Kibwana of Kitui and Makueni respectively.

Mudavadi's hold in Luhyaland has tended to be less sure. ODM has always been a large presence in his Western region, which Mudavadi shares with his OKA partner Ford Kenya, whose principal catchment area has been among the Bukusu community. 

When Mudavadi made his debut as a presidential candidate in 2013, he could only manage 483,981 votes. 

In contrast, when Kalonzo ran for president in 2007, he drew in a quite impressive 879,903 votes, despite Ukambani, where many of those votes came from, being much less populous than Luhyaland. 

Would Mudavadi perform better this time round when he looks much more energised? 

Time will tell. 

***

Local FM radio stations need to have interviewers who have adequate political and economic literacy in instances where they interview government VIPs. 

For instance, when the Tangatanga leader says his team has been subjected to bogus and politicised prosecutions where nobody has been convicted of corruption, he must be called out.

Have we forgotten so fast the conviction of Sirisia MP John Waluke, and the screaming headlines that reported the sentencing? (The matter is now at the Appellate court). 

More worryingly, when a very senior State official discloses he used his office to place a phone call to a local bank to ask it to “assist” a mysterious foreign wheeler-dealer with a Sh15 billion loan, that must raise a very red flag. 

It is so improper and unethical. Good Lord, what should we expect if that official were to get the ultimate office, the Presidency? 

God forbid!

@GitauWarigi