Ethnic calculations behind quest to succeed Wambora

Mr Wambora is serving his second and final term as chief executive of the cosmopolitan county whose dominant community is Embu. Other large ethnic groups are Mbeere, Kamba, and Kikuyu.

Mr Kivuti may have an edge over his challengers as he hails from the expansive Mbeere area that comprises Mbeere North and Mbeere South constituencies. The Mbeere are likely to vote as a bloc to ensure one of their own is elected governor.

The Kikuyu and Kamba in Mbeere may vote together with them. Given that Mr Wambora is Embu, the Mbeere, who have often argued for a rotational governorship, feel it’s their turn to lead.

In 2017, Mr Kivuti came second to Mr Wambora, who won with a narrow margin. Mr Wambora garnered 97,760 votes against Mr Kivuti’s 96,775. Mr Kivuti challenged Mr Wambora’s win in court on rigging claims. He lost the legal battle at the Supreme Court, where Mr Wambora won.

Mr Kivuti has picked former MP Emilio Kathuri, who hails from upper Embu, as his running mate. Ms Mbarire, Mr Muchiri and Dr Kumantha hail from upper Embu and are likely to split the Runyenjes and Manyatta votes, leaving Mr Kivuti to scoop the entire Mbeere vote bloc.

Mbeere residents complain that they have been marginalised for the past nine years.

Common interests

“We want one of our own to take over the mantle so that we can also [enjoy the benefits of] development [projects],” said Mr Kithu Nyaga. The Kamba are likely to vote together with their kinsmen in Mbeere South and Mbeere North where water and roads are common interests.

Party politics could also favour Mr Kivuti. He has never vied on a party dominant in the county or in the Mt Kenya region. He was elected in 2007 as MP for Siakago on a Safina party ticket, beating National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi, who vied under the Party of National Unity (PNU), which was then popular in Mt Kenya. In 2013, he vied for the Embu Senate seat on an Alliance Party of Kenya (APK) ticket, fighting off a wave mounted by President Kenyatta’s The National Alliance (TNA) party in Mt Kenya. 

In 2017, he almost trounced Governor Wambora, who rode on the euphoria of the Jubilee Party, after he contested the seat on the Maendeleo Chap Chap ticket.

He is currently the national chairman of the Devolution Empowerment Party, which he will use to make a second stab at the governor seat.

The former senator is a close confidant of Speaker Muturi, who has declared his presidential bid. On the other hand, Ms Mbarire and former police officer Muchiri are close confidants of Deputy President William Ruto and are scrambling for the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket.

Male-dominated race

During a meeting the DP presided over at his residence last August, bringing together several religious and political leaders from Embu, Mr Muchiri declared that he had agreed with Ms Mbarire to support whoever clinches the UDA ticket in the nominations.

“I would like to state that there will be no war between me and Mbarire. I want to assure Embu people that I shall support Mbarire if she trounces me in UDA nominations,” he said then.

Ms Mbarire pledged to do likewise. She has expressed confidence of winning, but will have a daunting task in a male-dominated race. Mr Muchiri is banking on his vote-rich Manyatta backyard for support. 

Dr Kumantha, who failed to win the same seat in 2017, hopes to be second time lucky, come August. He will run on Kenya Kwanza Alliance co-principal Musalia Mudavadi’s Amani National Congress (ANC) ticket, he said. 

The medical doctor pledged to reform the health sector and “be actively engaged in the fight against corruption in the region.”

Embu has 309,468 registered voters. Manyatta constituency leads with 99,339, followed by Runyenjes (86,977), Mbeere South (72,143) and Mbeere North (51,009). 

Judging by previous elections, whoever crosses the 100,000 mark first will be sure to win.