The political deals struck in 2017 among communities in multi-ethnic counties in the North Rift are now the subject of debate, with elders warning leaders to tread carefully in a proposed new negotiated-democracy deal ahead of the 2022 General Election.
A split has emerged among elders in the Kalenjin community, who form the majority, over sharing the competitive positions of governor, senator and woman representative, especially in cosmopolitan Uasin Gishu and Trans Nzoia counties.
A similar situation prevails in Elgeyo Marakwet County between the ethnic Marakwet and Keiyo communities.
A proposal by some Kalenjin elders to share elective positions has faced resistance from voters who have described the plan as undemocratic.
In the proposal, the elders want the northern part of Uasin Gishu that forms Soy and Turbo constituencies to produce the governor while the southern region comprising Kapseret and Kesses would get the woman representative seat.
In the plan, the eastern part that includes Moiben and Ainabkoi would take the senator position as part of a deal to attain ethnic and regional balance.
“We want our leaders to be united and avoid wrangles that might scuttle their political ambitions. Negotiated democracy in sharing elective positions is one of the options,” said elder John Yego.
But the proposal that was applied in most parts of the region in the 2013 and 2017 elections has been rejected by some voters, who want to exercise their democratic right to elect popular leaders.
“We cannot accept such a proposal, which is undemocratic and meant to benefit some preferred candidates,” said Mathew Koech, a resident of Moiben.
But the ethnic factor is already playing out in the race to succeed Governor Jackson Mandago, with the Nandi and Keiyo communities rallying behind candidates for the powerful seat.
Whereas Soy MP Caleb Kositany (Nandi) and Kenya’s ambassador to Pakistan, Julius Bitok (Nandi) — both of whom are allies of Deputy President William Ruto — have declared their interest in the governorship, Keiyo elders now want one of their own to be the next governor.
Led by Yusuf Keitany, they claim the Keiyo community deserves elective positions, arguing that traditionally whenever the Nandi community governed for five years, the next five years went to the Keiyo.
“We refuse the undermining of our Keiyo leaders and more so the recent utterances in public gatherings by those allied to DP Ruto. Senator Margaret Kamar, Bundotich Zedekiah Kiprop (Buzeki), Silas Tiren and William Chepkut must be respected,” Mr Keitany said in a past interview, setting the stage for tough political battles.
But outspoken Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi has cautioned against ethnic politics in the 2022 gubernatorial succession race, though he insisted that the contenders must support DP Ruto.
“The electorate should reject tribal chauvinists and vote for development-oriented leaders,” Mr Sudi said by phone.
The MP has come up with another proposal - that since Eldoret North has been in leadership for 10 years, it is time for a governor to come from Eldoret South.
“We value peaceful coexistence and there is nothing like being a Nandi, Keiyo, Marakwet or any other ethnic community when it comes to electing leaders,” added Mr Sudi, a second-term Jubilee MP.
Declaring his interest in succeeding Governor Mandago, Mr Kositany promised to introduce a bottom-up approach in tackling issues affecting the electorate, promising an ethnic-inclusive leadership.
“Uasin Gishu is cosmopolitan and as we progress, we cannot go back on this status. What we need to do is enhance the synergy and the togetherness in this county. I will be running for governor and the key thing we want is the bottom-up approach,” he said.
Mr Bitok, an ally of DP Ruto who contested in 2013 but lost narrowly to Governor Mandago, will also be making a second stab at the seat.
Some of his top priorities, he said, are wealth creation through agriculture value addition, youth empowerment, implementation of proper governance structures, and partnerships with local and international development associates to create a solid economy.
“I will be in the race to be the next governor. What I know is that the public requires a strong economy that will sustain better livelihoods and this can be attained through competent leadership,” he said by phone.
Others who have declared their interest in the gubernatorial seat include Nairobi City County environment executive Veska Kangogo, Eldoret businessman Jonathan Bii, former Teachers Service Commission member Cleophas Tirop and Uasin Gishu County Assembly Chief Whip David Singoei.
Former Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich and Uasin Gishu assembly Speaker David Kiplagat are also rumoured to be eyeing the seat.
Politician and businessman Buzeki, who mounted a well-oiled campaign machinery in the 2017 elections to give Mr Mandago a run for his money, has also said he will run again.
In Elgeyo-Marakwet, it will be an ethnic balancing act, with the Keiyo community seeking to win the governor’s seat in 2022.
Negotiated democracy failed to apply in the region in the last General Election after Alex Tolgos and Kipchumba Murkomen - both Marakwet - retained their governor and senator positions respectively.
But the Keiyo community now want one of their own elected either governor or senator, setting the stage for a tough succession battle.
