For the fourth time, Mr Shakeel Ahmed Shabbir will be presenting himself before Kisumu East constituency voters seeking to be re-elected as the area Member of Parliament.
Three times, the candidates contesting against him have not matched his popularity and influence in the constituency.
But Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party, which is keen on having numbers at the Senate and the National Assembly, is battling to reclaim the seat.
Apart from Mr Shabbir, who is vying as an independent, other candidates in the race are 37-year-old Salim Ojwang Didi (Movement for Democracy and Growth) and Orange Democratic Movement’s Nicholas Odongo Oricho, a former Kenya Sugar Board director.
In 2017, Mr Shabbir, 58, won the election after garnering 33,923 votes, Mr Oricho came second with 21, 309 while Mr Nelson Kabaka got 623 votes. Mr Joram Odhiambo Abayo had 483 votes, former nominated senator Joy Gwendo garnered 481 votes while Ms Mary Onyango managed a paltry 166.
Kisumu East has five wards: Kolwa East, Kolwa Central, Nyalenda A, Kajulu and Manyatta B.
In 2017, the voters elected all ODM ward representatives but voted for Mr Shabbir, who was vying as an independent.
The contest will be decided mostly on party affiliation, clan politics, track record and experience.
Those challenging Mr Shabbir have a hard task convincing voters that they are better than the incumbent, who, despite being of Asian descent, is quite popular and has been crowned a Kolwa elder, a clan that forms the biggest voting bloc in the constituency.
The political journey of Mr Shabbir—popularly known as ‘Onyango wuon Mogo’ (Dholuo for Onyango, he who has flour— has been a cocktail of betrayal, insults, racial slurs, undying love and victory, all wrapped in a series of episodes that keep unfolding year in, year out.
His moniker, ‘Onyango Wuon Mogo’ , derives from his dishing out maize flour to homes in his constituency, even as critics accuse him of engaging in tokenism.
The highest number of funerals he has attended in a week since he was elected MP is 40, but for him, 20 is ‘very normal’.
Mr Shabbir’s strong relationship with his constituents is due to the fact that he is responsive to their needs.
By Thursday every week, he is usually in Kisumu where he takes time to listen to his constituents’ problems from Friday to Monday before he heads back to Nairobi on Tuesday.
He believes he has done well in giving bursaries to needy students and in infrastructures such as building schools and roads.
Mr Shabbir says: “My constituents are my priority. I’m in touch with them because I’m not interested in national politics and don’t chair any committee in the National Assembly; this gives me ample time with them.”
His foray into politics started in the late 1990s when he was nominated to the then Kisumu Municipal Council. He quickly rose through the ranks to become mayor (2000-2002) and again between 2004 and 2006.
He has served as MP since 2007 after taking over from Gor Sunguh, the former chairman of a Parliamentary Select Committee on the murder of Foreign Affairs Minister Robert Ouko.
Should he win in the August polls, Mr Shabbir will be one of the longest serving MPs in the National Assembly.
There are two major clans in Kisumu East: Kolwa (mostly from the larger Kano clan) and Kajulu (mostly JoKisumo).
Jodak, a term that refers to non-locals that mostly occupy Nyalenda A and Manyatta B are also a voters’ bloc in the constituency.
The ODM candidate, Mr Oricho, who hails from Kajulu, is hoping that residents will vote for him as a bloc, noting, it’s time for change.
But some residents, mostly from the Kolwa clan, believe the seat should be rotational and that one of their own should be given a chance to lead.
Mr Shabbir’s predecessor, Sunguh, hailed from Kajulu.
The Kolwa now want the seat to go to one of their own, Mr Salim Didi.
“As Kolwa people, we stuck with Shakeel despite being an independent candidate because we believe the Kajulu people have had their chance through Sunguh. It’s only fair that with our numbers, we vote for one of us,” said Mr Didi, a management and tax consultant of 15-year standing.
Mr Didi, a grandson of former colonial assistant chief Dalmas Hongo, said that, in return, the Kolwa clan will be supporting Ms Valentine Otieno, who hails from Kajulu and is vying for the Kisumu woman rep position.
He believes he has what it takes to make Kisumu East the entire county’s bread basket by utilising the permanent rivers traversing the constituency for irrigation.
Mr Robert Otuge, Kisumu East ODM chairperson, told the Nation that the party primaries usually leave them divided and this spills over into the main elections.
“To deal with this challenge, after the ODM nominations, I convened a branch executive committee meeting with all the winners and losers where the rallying call was to have them campaign as a team, with a promise that all will be accommodated either at the county or national levels,” Mr Otuge said.
He added that they are doing a lot of grassroots mobilisation for their candidate, Mr Oricho.
“We have around 80 officials at the polling station level who have been tasked with mobilising at least five people to vote for our candidate,” he added.
The ODM has also roped in opinion leaders from the sub-county, such as former MP Sunguh and others who unsuccessfully contested for the seat, to convince their support bases to back Mr Oricho.
The party is further planning to embark on a series of rallies across the constituency to urge residents to support ODM candidates.
TOMORROW: Nakuru Senate race, where the battle to succeed Susan Kihika is on
