Nyamira Governor Amos Nyaribo, Murang’a Senator Irungu Kang’ata and former Rift Valley commissioner George Natembeya (Trans Nzoia) would win their target gubernatorial seats if elections were called today, according to a new poll.
The poll by Trends & Insights for Africa (Tifa) also has it that Dagoretti North MP Simba Arati and former Governor Godana Doyo would be elected as Kisii and Isiolo county bosses, respectively.
In Nyamira, Mr Nyaribo of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is the most preferred gubernatorial candidate with a popularity rating of 36 percent, followed by Walter Nyambati of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 19 per cent.
Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) national treasurer Timothy Bosire comes third at 11 percent, Mr Ben Momanyi of Wiper (nine per cent) and Jubilee’s Mwancha Okioma follows at one percent.
The poll further showed that there were 22 percent undecided voters in Nyamira County at the time the poll was conducted.
In the neighbouring Kisii County, Mr Arati is more than six times popular among voters, compared to his closest challenger, UDA’s Ezekiel Machogu at 11 percent.
Former Transport Chief Administrative Secretary Chris Obure (Jubilee) is at three percent, with Manson Nyamweya of KNC and Prof Sam Ongeri of DAP-K tying at two percent. Those who are still undecided on the county boss’s seat account for 15 percent of registered county voters.
The poll indicated that the Raila Odinga-led ODM party was the most popular party in both Kisii and Nyamira counties at 47 percent and 44 per cent respectively.
The poll also holds that Azimio la Umoja One Kenya alliance is the most popular coalition party in the two counties, with a 57 percent approval rating in Kisii and 56 percent in Nyamira.
In Murang’a, Senator Kang’ata has a 58 percent approval rating, compared to his main competitor, former Kigumo MP Jamleck Kamau, who has an approval rating of 13 percent.
Coming in third would be Mr Wairagu wa Mwai with a popularity rating of five per cent, while Farmers Party leader Irungu Nyakera is at three per cent in a county where, according to the poll, undecided voters account for 20 percent.
Mr Kang’ata’s popularity stems from the massive support his coalition party enjoys in the Mt Kenya region, where UDA has a 57 percent approval rating while Kenya Kwanza Alliance’s approval stands at 60 per cent.
For his part, Mr Kamau is more popular than his sponsoring Jubilee party, which has the backing of only 11 percent of the residents, according to the poll. Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition has only 18 percent support in Murang’a.
In Trans Nzoia, Mr Natembeya enjoys a huge lead over outgoing Kiminini MP Chris Wamalwa in the race for the county’s 398,981 registered voters.
The Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) candidate has the backing of 56 percent of the voters, more than twice that of Mr Wamalwa, who trails at 21 percent, according to the poll.
Mr Wilfred Muraya comes a distant third with two per cent while the undecided voters account for 19 per cent of registered voters.
Azimio, the poll further shows, is the most preferred coalition in Trans Nzoia, with a popularity rating of 44 per cent, thus eclipsing Kenya Kwanza, which has 34 per cent rating.
Interestingly, UDA is the most popular party overall, with an approval rating of 24 per cent, followed by ODM at 23 percent and DAP-K at nine per cent.
In Isiolo, however, a close battle could be in the offing between Mr Doyo, an Independent candidate, and former Nairobi County Assembly Majority Leader Abdi Guyo (Jubilee).
Mr Doyo is leading with a popularity rating of 45 percent, followed by Mr Guyo’s 34 percent. The poll indicates 11 per cent of Isiolo voters are still undecided on who to vote for come next month.
Former Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) boss Halakhe Waqo of ODM is third at four per cent and Hussein Tene of UDA party is at two per cent despite UDA being the most popular party in the county at 32 percent.
However, in the coalitions category, Azimio edges Kenya Kwanza with a rating of 39 percent and 35 percent respectively.
In the Kisii senatorial race, Mr Richard Onyonka (ODM) is leading with a popularity rating of 27 percent, former South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara (Jubilee) nine per cent and outgoing Kisii Deputy Governor Joash Maangi (UDA) coming a distant third at five per cent.
Ms Doris Aburi (Wiper) is leading in popularity in the battle for the woman rep’s seat, with a 32 per cent approval rating, ahead of the incumbent, Ms Janet Ongera (ODM) at 15 percent and Ms Teresa Bitutu (UDA) at three per cent.
In Murang’a, UDA’s Joe Nyutu leads the senatorial race with a 42 percent approval rating against former senator Kembi Gitura of Jubilee (nine per cent), who comes a distant second. Undecided voters account for 37 percent of the voters, the poll indicates.
In a clean sweep by UDA, Betty Maina (37 percent) is twice as popular as her nearest rival, Waithira Kibinda (19 percent) in the woman rep race, with 32 percent of the voters still undecided.
Trans Nzoia Senator Henry Ndiema and Allan Chesang tie at 24 percent support in a county where the pollsters say 37 percent of the voters were undecided.
Ms Lillian Siyoi tops the woman rep race with a 22 percent approval rating, followed by Dr Susan Nakhumicha at 11 percent, with a staggering 40 percent still undecided.
In Isiolo, Fatuma Dullo would become the county’s senator were elections to be called today, according to the TIFA poll.
Ms Dullo enjoys a 47 per cent lead over Nuh Mohamed Ibrahim (26 percent) while Rehema Jaldesa is neck and neck with Mumina Bonaya with ratings of 36 per cent and 29 percent respectively.
“The release focuses on political party coalition preference, popular presidential aspirants and popular aspirants for county elective seats,” said Tifa CEO Maggie Ireri.
Nyamira Senator Okong'o Omogeni (ODM) is leading with a 39 percent popularity rating, followed by first county senator Kennedy Mon’gare (Ford Kenya), Nyambega Mose of UDA (seven per cent) and Adams Mochenwa of Democratic Party of Kenya coming fourth at five per cent.
Ms Jerusha Momanyi (Jubilee) leads in the Nyamira woman rep race with a 28 percent approval rating, followed by Emily Nyagarama of ODM at 21 percent and UDA’s Josephine Omanwa at four per cent.
