The Raila Odinga-led Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is seeking to turn around its diminishing grip of the voter-rich Rift Valley region ahead of the August 9 General Election.
In the 2007 elections, the party had significant support in the region, but that has waned in the last 15 years, with residents shifting allegiance to other political outfits.
Laikipia Governor Ndiritu Muriithi is leading his colleagues Mr Alex Tolgos (Elgeyo Marakwet), Mr Lee Kinyanjui (Nakuru) and Mr Joseph Ole Lenku (Kajiado) in campaigning for Mr Odinga to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta.
ODM’s leading lights in the region including Turkana Governor Josphat Nanok and the party’s nominated MP Wilson Sossion have shifted their support to the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), led by Deputy President William Ruto.
Mr Nanok, who is serving his second and last term, is chairperson of the economic caucus in Dr Ruto’s campaign secretariat, while Mr Sossion has declared his candidacy for the Bomet senatorial seat held by Dr Christopher Langat, in a race that also has Nairobi-based lawyer Mr Hillary Sigei.
ODM is mainly focusing its campaigns in Narok, Turkana, Kajiado and Nakuru counties but its hold in these areas is threatened by the UDA wave.
Governor Nanok was removed in 2019 as ODM vice-chairman and replaced by Koima MP Jeremiah Lomorukai.
“The wind of change is sweeping through the Rift Valley region and the entire country ahead of the next General Election. UDA is the party of the moment and Dr Ruto is poised to be the fifth President” said Governor Nanok.
“I regularised my engagement with UDA in December, and resigned from ODM…I am in a region where 90 per cent of the voters are in UDA and there is no way I can walk against the tide,” Mr Sossion said.
Mr Sossion, a former Kenya National Union of Teachers (Knut) secretary-general, has faced questions in the campaigns over his association with ODM when the region is backing Dr Ruto.
Political pundits say ODM faces a gigantic task in its efforts to revitalise itself in the region, especially as a result of the falling-out between Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga.
"It will be a tall order for ODM to redeem its image in the Rift Valley with UDA being the people's choice of political vehicle in the General Election," said Mr Richard Kilel, a Bomet Central parliamentary candidate.
Mr Kilel said it will be difficult for anyone to convince the majority of residents of the region to abandon Dr Ruto in favour of Mr Odinga.
“I can assure you that ODM will pull surprises in the August 9 elections in the Rift Valley by capturing many parliamentary and civic seats. The party has not kicked off its campaigns ahead of the polls,” said Mr Kipkorir Menjo, the ODM National Executive Council member.
Mr Menjo, who has stood by Mr Odinga for decades, said several candidates had expressed interest in the party’s ticket.
Narok Senator Ledama Ole Kina recently said the Maa community especially in Narok and Kajiado were fully behind ODM and Mr Odinga and that the party will vanquish other outfits in the region.
It is a position shared by Narok North MP Moitalel Ole Kenta, who is vying for the Narok governor’s seat held by Mr Samwel Tunai of Jubilee, who will contest the Senate position.
“The Maasai community is fully behind Mr Odinga and the Azimio La Umoja initiative. The ODM leader has the ability and resolve to steer this country to greater heights in development,” said Mr Kenta.
Pastoralist communities have gravitated in the past towards ODM while some back Kanu, led by Baringo Senator Gideon Moi.
Political realignments are shaping up in the region, with Dr Ruto recently joining hands with Amani National Congress (ANC) party leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula to form Kenya Kwanza.
It remains to be seen what influence President Kenyatta will have in the succession game, having thrown his weight behind Mr Odinga, rejecting Dr Ruto, who has been his deputy for the past nine years in the Jubilee administration.
