Clan politics will play a major role in electing the next governor of Siaya County in the August polls.
Former Rarieda legislator Nicholas Gumbo, who is running on a UDM ticket against ODM Senator James Orengo, will have to go back to the drawing board to craft a winning formula after the latest developments in the Siaya political landscape.
In his second attempt to clinch the county's top seat, he faces heavy political opposition from ODM, the dominant party in the region led by Raila Odinga; he is swimming against the wave.
Mr Gumbo is banking on his record in Rarieda constituency, where he served two terms as MP.
"Mr Odinga, who has sacrificed a lot for this country, brought devolution. However, Siaya is still far behind compared with other counties and that is the reason I am contesting. We must save our county from wanton corruption and wastage of resources," said Mr Gumbo at a press briefing in Ugenya.
Mr Orengo, on the other hand, will rely on ODM’s popularity, his long political career that spans over 40 years and Mr Odinga's support. He also banks on support from the two largest clans in Siaya County – Alego and Ugenya.
ODM officials and elected leaders have intensified campaigns in the region, championing a six-piece voting pattern (electing their own from MCA to President).
Outgoing Siaya Governor Cornel Rasanga, who hails from Alego, is fully behind Mr Orengo to succeed him. IEBC data shows that as of February, Alego Usonga, the most populated constituency in Siaya, had 103,334 registered voters.
"The person who has the capacity to succeed me as the next governor is Mr Orengo. He is a mature leader with a lot of experience and he understands what the public wants," said Mr Rasanga at a recent function.
Before Mr Gumbo decided to contest on the UDM ticket, Ugenya MP David Ochieng supported his quest and he had gained significant ground in the constituency. But Mr Ochieng’s recent decision to start supporting Mr Orengo is viewed as a blow to the former's bid for the top county seat.
The larger Ugenya that comprises Ugunja and Ugenya constituencies may vote for Mr Orengo, who served as MP for the area for many years before it was split. The two constituencies have over 108,000 votes as of February.
"I told you to rally behind Mr Gumbo for the top seat but we have to retract our earlier decision and support our son Mr Orengo,” said Mr Ochieng while drumming support for Mr Orengo.
“We thought we would work with Mr Gumbo but from the look of things, he has decided to break our hearts. Therefore, I request you to support our son."
Mr Orengo, who had earlier faced opposition from his backyard, now has the support of Ugunja and Ugenya, giving him a head-start.
"Ugenya supported us (Alego) for a record of two terms. Our culture demands that when someone does something good to you, in return you should reciprocate and that is exactly what we shall do by supporting Mr Orengo fully to be the next Siaya governor," Mr Rasanga said.
Mr Gumbo, who hails from the Asembo clan, will bank on the Rarieda constituency votes to give ODM's candidate a run for his money.
This will be his second stab at the governor’s seat after an unsuccessful bid in 2017 that pitted him against Mr Rasanga.
Mr Gumbo is also looking for a slice of the Alego clan votes after settling on former police spokesman Charles Owino, who hails from there, as the running mate.
East African Legislative Assembly member Oburu Oginga, who is likely to fly the Orange party’s ticket in his quest for Siaya senator, will also add significant support for Mr Orengo owing to the ODM factor.
Dr Oginga is from the Sakwa clan and because Mr Odinga commands support in Bondo constituency, which has 90,278 votes, Mr Orengo would harvest from the region.
Support from the Ugenya, Alego Usonga, Sakwa and Yimbo clans would put Mr Orengo ahead of his competitors. Right now, the Gumbo-Owino ticket enjoys massive support in Bondo and Rarieda. Gem and Alego will likely determine the winner.
