Record Heat: What 2024's historic temperature breach means for Kenya
What you need to know:
- In 2024, the world's average temperature reached 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (the period between 1850-1900), according to data confirmed by six major international organisations and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
- For Kenya, this global temperature rise has over the years brought devastating consequences
- According to climate studies, the rate of warming in East Africa has been about 0.2°C to 0.5°C per decade, which is faster than the global average of approximately 0.18°C per decade observed over recent decades
BY HELLEN SHIKANDA
The world has just experienced its hottest year on record, breaking a crucial climate threshold that scientists have long warned about. This global temperature spike signals even greater challenges ahead for Kenya, a country already grappling with severe droughts and floods.
Global Temperature Milestone
In 2024, the world's average temperature reached 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (the period between 1850-1900), according to data confirmed by six major international organisations and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Climate change data from WMO from June 2023 shows that there was a 15-month heat streak shattering new records every month until August last year. This breach was accelerated by both human-caused climate change and a strong El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean.
The Kenyan Impact
For Kenya, this global temperature rise has over the years brought devastating consequences:
- The prolonged drought in northern Kenya (2020-2023) affected over 4.5 million people.
- Unprecedented floods in late 2023 displaced thousands and caused significant loss of life.
- Changing rainfall patterns have disrupted traditional farming seasons, threatening food security.
- The country's crucial tea and coffee sectors face mounting challenges from erratic weather.
Understanding the 1.5°C Limit
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015 during the 21st session of the United Nations Conference of Parties on climate change (COP21), came up with a legally binding instrument called the Paris Agreement which set a limit of temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This wasn't a target to aim for, but rather a dangerous limit to stay well below. Kenya, as a signatory to the agreement, committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions while adapting to climate impacts.
"It's crucial to understand that exceeding 1.5°C for one year doesn't mean we've permanently failed the Paris Agreement goals, which are measured over decades," explains WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo. "However, every fraction of a degree matters, especially for vulnerable countries like Kenya."
What this means
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explains that when countries limit global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius, there will be less adverse effects related to losses and damages from climate change. Should the opposite happen as the data now shows, there is likely to be an increase in recurrent and dangerous extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and heavy precipitation and flooding.
What it means for Kenya's future if global temperatures continue rising:
- The country's arid and semi-arid regions could expand, affecting approximately 80 per cent of Kenya's land mass.
- Mount Kenya's glaciers, which have already lost 92per cent of their mass, could disappear entirely.
- Coastal cities like Mombasa face increased risks from rising sea levels.
- More frequent extreme weather events could strain Kenya's infrastructure and economy.
Kenya's Response
Kenya has positioned itself as a regional leader in climate action:
- The country aims to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 32 per cent by 2030.
- Investment in renewable energy has made Kenya Africa's leading geothermal power producer.
- The government has banned single-use plastics and aims to achieve 30 per cent forest cover by 2050.
The way forward
With 2024's temperature breach, countries must update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) - national climate action plans - this year. Kenya's updated plan will be crucial, especially given that East Africa is warming faster than the global average. According to climate studies, the rate of warming in East Africa has been about 0.2°C to 0.5°C per decade, which is faster than the global average of approximately 0.18°C per decade observed over recent decades.
"Blazing temperatures in 2024 require trail-blazing climate action in 2025," warns UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, calling for an immediate global response.
For Kenya, this means:
- Accelerating renewable energy adoption
- Strengthening early warning systems for extreme weather
- Investing in climate-resilient agriculture
- Protecting and restoring critical ecosystems like water towers and mangroves
The temperature record's significance
While a single year above 1.5°C doesn't mean permanent failure, it's a stark warning. For Kenya, where millions depend on rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive sectors, the message is clear: adapt to the changes already locked in while fighting to prevent worse ones.
The country's Climate Change Act and National Climate Change Action Plan provide frameworks for response, but implementation and international support will be crucial. As Kenya faces this global challenge, its actions in 2025 could help determine how well its people weather the storms ahead - both literal and figurative.