Scenarios that can make the world end plastic waste crisis

In Busan, South Korea

The city under the sun –Nairobi - has a former beautiful river that is now choked by plastic pollution.

In Mombasa, some beaches are strewn with plastic bottles despite a ban that was enforced in a gazette notice by the National Environment Management Authority (Nema) in 2019 for all protected areas.

 Some rivers in the coastal city like Mtopanga have been plagued by plastic pollution. Everywhere you look, even across the street, you will likely see plastic disposed of inappropriately.

Delegates from about 175 countries are discussing ways to curb this menace. But, is it possible to end plastic pollution?

Scientists from the United States analysed data using Artificial Intelligence to come up with scenarios that can make the world end plastic pollution by 2050.

Also read: Kenya takes the lead as world races to end plastic pollution

Some of their four scenarios are part of what is being discussed by delegates attending the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC-5) in Busan, South Korea.

The proposed policies in the study include: having a directive that new products be made with 40 per cent post-consumer recycled plastic, cap new plastic production at 2020 levels, invest significantly in plastic waste management such as landfills and waste collection services; and implement a small tax on plastic packaging.

“This policy bundle is projected to reduce plastic waste mismanagement in 2050 by 91 per cent and gross plastic-related greenhouse gas emissions by one third,” shows the report published in the journal Science.

 Dr Douglas McCauley, one of the study authors from the University of California Berkeley and Santa Barbara said that one of the most important negotiations in Busan is the world’s one chance to come together as a planet and fix this problem.

 “One of the most exciting discoveries in this research is that it is actually possible to nearly end plastic pollution with this Treaty. I am cautiously optimistic, but we can’t squander this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” said Dr McCauley.

His co-author, Dr Niyedita Biyani, who is an Artificial Intelligence researcher on Global Plastic Modeling at Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory, said she is optimistic about a sustainable future.

 “This policy work shows that we can reach minimal mismanaged plastic waste if we can come together in action. This provides policymakers with a novel tool that isn’t prescriptive — they can combine various policies as they see fit. Going forward, I think a mechanism to gather data on plastic production and trade will be a key factor. We need supply chain transparency here," she said.

Senior Research Data Scientist, Sam Pottinger, of the Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center for Data Science and Environment at University of California, said in a statement that the delegates charged to come up with a plastics treaty have many resources to consider, and all they need is ambition to actualise their discussions by December 1.

 “The impact that we are really hoping to see on the treaty is that it is data-informed. As the treaty comes to its final conclusion before ratification, we want folks to be aware of how much progress they've actually made, at least according to the best science that we have available right now,” he said.

Their forecasts highlight the huge impact of the mismanaged plastic waste problem that is likely to grow if there will be no interventions in place.  

They warn that the burden of this uncontrolled growth of plastic waste will be inequitably placed upon the world’s least wealthy countries which consume the least amount of plastic per capita.

“It is clear from these results that, with sufficient political will, there is enough technical potential to dramatically reduce mismanaged plastic waste and meaningfully address some of the more insidious associated issues,” the scientists say. 

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