World predicted to break 1.5°C warming limit for the first time in 2024

Scientists have warned that 2024 could be the point of no return in terms of global warming.

It is not only predicted to be the hottest year, but is also forecasted to smash the global warming record by surpassing the set limit, according to the Meteorological Office. Global warming limit is believed to be that point where climate change could turn irreversible. It  is set at 1.5 degrees Celsius (27 degrees Fahrenheit) based on the Paris Agreement.

High temperatures as a result of climate change impacts exacerbated by the ongoing El Nino rains could see 2024 emerge as the first year to exceed that limit.

Experts caution that temperatures in 2024 are estimated to surpass the pre-industrial average to reach between 1.34 degrees Celsius (2.41 degree Fahrenheit) and 1.58 degrees Celsius (2.84 degrees Fahrenheit.) Led by Met Office Climate Dynamics team head Nick Dunstone, the scientists explain that the latest “prediction is in line with the current trend of global warming of 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.36 degrees F) each decade.”

“The ongoing “El Nino event is a boost to the forecast. We are forecasting, for the very first time, a fair possibility of a year surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius for a short duration. “We are expecting two successive years of new record breaking temperatures.”

In 2015, world leaders made a pact to prevent global temperatures reaching disastrous unstable levels by exceeding 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F). Scientists opine that the occurrence will ‘certainly be a historic climate milestone.’

That said, one temporary event of temperatures rising beyond the set limit may not be considered to be in breach of the Paris Agreement.

Human driven factors as well as the El Nino are among climate change contributors predicted to fuel temperatures this year.

El Nino occurs when there is a shifting of warm water distribution in the Pacific Ocean, therefore temporarily triggering warmer seas and weaker winds.

This explains why the phenomena is particularly estimated to raise average temperatures.

‘In addition to climate change, we also have unusually high temperatures in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic as well as the El Nino event. These factors are associated with the new extremes of global temperatures,” explains Prof Adam Scaife.

Terming climate change as the most significant factor, the experts note that chances of global temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) in subsequent years are minimal despite natural fluctuations occurring.

Human driven global warming, which has been ongoing since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution phase, is the main cause for record-breaking temperatures.

The forecast comes against the backdrop of a series of outstanding weather events including the hottest November last year, which was listed the fifth record breaking month consecutively.

The Met Office is nearly certain that 2023 was the hottest year ever, saying it surpassed its predictions on temperature. Towards the end of 2022, Met had estimated global temperatures to surge above the average of pre-industrial era to reach between 1.08 degrees C (1.94 degrees F) to (1.32 degrees C (2.38).

However, the last 11 months of last year had an average of 1.4 degrees C (2.52 degrees F) and exceeded the average for the period between 1850 and 1900. 

This year will be the eleventh year in a row where temperatures have surpassed the pre-industrial level with 1 degree C (1.8 degree F), based on predictions by Met.

A recent study carried out by Global Carbon Budget found that burning fossil fuels emissions soared to historic levels in 2023.

In the just concluded COP28 held in December in Dubai, a section of world representatives deliberated on phasing out fossil fuels use. 

Methane, which is one of the greenhouse gases contributing to global warming, was also featured in several climate commitments during the conference.

 While noting it would take longer in developing countries, world powers agreed on the urgency of emissions peaking globally.

Governments also committed to rapidly carry out reductions afterwards in line with the best science available.

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