When he was first sworn in as Uganda’s president in 1986, Yoweri Museveni declared that his victory represented a “fundamental change”. He promised that Ugandans would no longer die at the hands of fellow citizens. He also criticised African leaders who sought international prestige while their people lacked food, healthcare and dignity.
Now nearly four decades into his rule, Uganda’s promised democratic renewal has been replaced by increasingly autocratic governance . Once the liberator, Museveni has become the strongman , overseeing a deeply repressive system. Political opposition, civil society and ordinary citizens have faced growing human rights violations, violence and intimidation. This is particularly targeted at young people and political dissidents.
Ugandan Presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, of the National Unity Platform (NUP) party, stands with his wife Barbara Kyagulanyi, as he addresses a press conference as they prepare to leave their Magere home to vote in the general election, in Kasangati town near Kampala, Uganda January 15, 2026.
Photo credit: Reuters
In the run-up to Uganda’s 2026 elections, political repression has intensified . Young people, under the leadership of opposition figure Robert Kyagulanyi (popularly known as Bobi Wine ), are at the centre of a growing struggle for freedom and democracy. And they are increasingly the targets of state violence.
The international community can also play a role by ending its supply of weapons and ensuring the implementation of international laws. This includes a commitment to arrest and prosecute those who commit crimes against humanity .
It is also urgent that Bobi Wine be granted special protection during and after the elections. The opposition leader has warned that the regime has plans to assassinate him.
A Ugandan Electoral Commission tape is placed to guide voters at a polling station before the opening of polls in the general election in Wampeewo, Wakiso District, Uganda, January 15, 2026.
Photo credit: Reuters
Firstly, authoritarianism and institutional control. To entrench his power, Museveni has rigged votes in every political election.
Authoritarianism is reinforced by personal and family control of institutions, particularly the military, police, the judiciary, the legislature and the electoral commission. The president’s son Muhoozi Kainerugaba is Uganda’s chief of defence forces. Museveni’s wife Janet is the minister of education and a member of parliament. All institutions are headed and monopolised by people from the president’s ethnic group.
Secondly, corruption. Uganda is estimated to lose more than Sh10 trillion (US$2.8 billion) to corruption annually. Senior officials have amassed wealth through corruption.
For their part, the UK and US governments have sanctioned Ugandan officials for corruption.
Third, poverty. As of June 2025, Uganda ranked 157th out of 193 countries on a UN global development index. This index measures standards of living. Children still study under trees and hospitals are dilapidated . According to the World Bank, nearly 60% of the population lives on less than US$3 a day.
Lastly, digital repression. The government has suspended internet access, and blocked platforms to prevent citizens from sharing evidence of state violence. This digital clampdown is a central tool of political control .
Opposition remains defiant
Despite repression, Bobi Wine, aged 43, has vowed to proceed with his campaign to unseat Museveni, 81. The opposition leader presents his movement as a fight to restore democracy, constitutionalism and civilian rule.
His political programme focuses on ending corruption and youth employment, healing national divisions, and improving access to public services. His manifesto talks about creating jobs, strengthening education, and restoring respect for human rights and the rule of law.
The youth-led struggle for democracy in Uganda reflects a broader continental reality: young Africans are demanding accountable leadership that reflects national potential rather than elite survival.
Why Uganda’s future matters
Reversing authoritarianism is essential if Uganda’s going to deal with its myriad social and political ills.
The biggest immediate threat is a real risk of mass violence. The president’s son, who is also the military chief, has publicly threatened Bobi Wine . The opposition leader has warned of reports suggesting preparations for mass killings.
A reversal of the current state of affairs would contribute to peace and stability in Uganda, and across the Great Lakes region , one of Africa’s most conflict-affected zones. All six of Uganda’s neighbours (Burundi, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania and Kenya) face instability of one form or another.
In addition, some neighbouring countries are experiencing increased internal political tension. For example Tanzania, long seen as relatively peaceful, has experienced lethal crackdowns against political opponents and protesters .
A Ugandan police baton is placed on a box containing electoral materials at a polling station before the opening of the general election in Wampeewo, Wakiso District, Uganda, January 15, 2026.
Photo credit: Reuters
In Uganda itself, ethnic and regional tensions are rising . Museveni has said every soldier will have 120 bullets to silence protesters in the January 2026 election. Civilians have previously been kidnapped, tortured, disappeared and killed.
The youth-led struggle for democracy in Uganda reflects a broader continental reality: young Africans are demanding accountable leadership that reflects national potential rather than elite survival.
For the wider international community, supporting democratic transitions is not only a moral responsibility. It is also central to long-term peace, security, development and reducing forced migration.
History shows that early international action can prevent atrocities – and its absence can enable catastrophe.
Evelyn Namakula Mayanja is an Assistant Professor of Interdisciplinary Studies at Carleton University.
