The electoral programme in Somalia may be spinning like a tossed coin.
Just months to the end of the parliamentary term and that of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo (right), no one knows the date of the polls or who will take part.
National Independent Electoral Commission chairperson Halima Ismail last week said her organisation is not ready to preside over the votes. She cited wrangles among stakeholders, insecurity and incomplete laws as reasons Somalia cannot have polls on time.
The admission – three months to initial date of the parliamentary polls – saw opposition groups like the Forum for National Parties, Wadajir Party and some federal states threaten to withdraw their confidence in the agency.
Yet everyone is to blame, according to a report by Mogadishu think-tank Heritage Institute for Policy Studies.
“There has been collective failure,” it said in a report titled Finding a way out of Somalia’s Man-made electoral crisis released on Wednesday.’
“The federal government of Somalia aside, member states and opposition groups have also failed to demonstrate leadership. Some have instead engaged in harmful practices that have undermined national institutions and impeded state-building efforts.”
Most Somalia citizens may be excited at the prospect of having to elect their leaders directly for the first time in half a century.
Ahead of the elections, two issues have become prominent – whether the elections should be delayed or how voters should cast ballots.
“There is so much we can do in the year ahead. It is possible if political stakeholders work together. In the spirit of compromise, progress will be made for timely fair and quality elections. This is what everyone is looking for,” said Somali Welfare Party chairman Mohamud Mohamed Mohamud.
An academic in Somalia from the 80s, Mohamud intends to contest the presidency.
But he faces a challenge: he comes from a minority clan, colloquially labelled “Five” or Besha Shenaad, the “fifth clan”.
Mohamud will be the first person to run for presidency from the minority clans and hopes for a fair vote if the vote is by universal suffrage.
The past four elections have been indirect, through elders from the four major clans – Hawiye, Dir, Rahanweyn and Darood – have often taken seats in a system called 4.5.
“Minorities must get their rights in an agreed, consistent way, not just through a voting quota, which no one can challenge or violate,” Mohamud told the Sunday Nation.
“If the voting system does not assure minority their rights, it will not be fair. The constitution needs to be amended to secure the rights of minorities.”
Some experts argue that a direct election could help improve the legitimacy of the government and representatives.
Abdimalik Abdullahi, a researcher and political commentator said the 4.5 system has created a detached political class.
“Somalia is captive of a small political elite, including elders,” he said.
“Most of the key political decisions made are influenced by elders who are there to safeguard their interests and the interests of their clan constituencies.”
Yet pursuing perfection of a direct vote has its challenges. The argument last week was whether to have timely elections or delay and fine-tune the system.
Abdullahi said both ideas have merits, “but the bottom line should be an inclusive vote in which stakeholders are content and have confidence in the process”.
Director of the East Africa Centre for Research and Strategic Studies Abdalla Ahmed Ibrahim said the stakeholders have taken “extreme scenarios”.
There are arguments for a proper one-person-one-vote election in 2020 or next year, which will mean an extension of term for lawmakers and Farmaajo.
“Both are deemed unrealistic,” Ibrahim said, referring to lack of census data, threats from al-Shabaab, legal loopholes and a bad economic situation.
“These factors make one-person-one-vote impossible. Yet not holding elections will erode the little trust people have in parliament,” he told the Sunday Nation.
“It is up to federal states to raise their voice as this election is a historic milestone that could break or make Somalia.”
Part of the controversy is on the local electoral laws, which could determine selection or election model.
Since Somalia began to re-establish itself more than a decade ago, clan elders have held sway in selecting representatives.
The model is getting tired, with critics saying it detaches leaders from ordinary people.
Hamza Abdikadir Sadik, a legal analyst in Mogadishu, said the country’s election requires political solutions, meaning dialogue between stakeholders.
“An election of a parliament with the current laws is a threat to the nation and could affect our nascent democracy,” he said.
