According to the latest IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) weather forecast, the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region is forecast to experience above-normal rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures during the upcoming June-September season.
The countries that make up GHA are Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda.
The report shows that Kenya's coastal and western regions will experience an increased chance of wetter-than-usual conditions. The same weather events are predicted for Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan.
However, parts of northern Somalia, isolated areas in western Ethiopia, and northwestern South Sudan are expected to receive below-average rainfall.
The meteorologists observed that the weather pattern is similar to what was observed in 1998 and 2010 which brought wetter-than-average conditions to much of the region.
ICPAC also predicts an early to normal rainy season onset in several areas, including central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan. In contrast, a delayed start is likely in Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan.
The temperature outlook for the next four months suggests a high probability of warmer-than-normal conditions throughout the region, with areas like northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania likely to experience the most significant heat.
"The Greater Horn of Africa is highly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change, which pose serious challenges to our communities' resilience," said Dr. Guleid Artan, Director of ICPAC. "The predicted wetter-than-normal conditions for June to September 2024 mirror the patterns of 1998 and 2010, highlighting the potential impact, especially for South Sudan and Sudan, which could face flooding."
Dr Artan emphasised the importance of early warning systems in preparing for these recurring extreme weather events.
