President William Ruto of Kenya and China's President Xi Jinping shake hands during the high-level meeting on the Belt and Road Initiative in Beijing, China on September 5, 2024.
President William Ruto returns to Beijing for the third time, seeking the ultimate Chinese buy-in for his pet infrastructure projects, and trade options in the face of US tariffs.
Beijing on Thursday confirmed the state visit scheduled for April 22-26, “at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping.”
Kenya seeks to implement a memorandum on public-private partnerships (PPP) it signed with the China-Africa Development Fund to complete development projects without piling more debt.
But it comes as China and the US bicker over trade tariffs, and Beijing looking to alternative trade partners.
President William Ruto meets Chinese Ambassador to Kenya Guo Haiyan, who paid him a courtesy call at State House Nairobi on March 27, 2025.
Shen Shiwei, a non-resident research fellow at the Institute of African Studies of Zhejiang Normal University in China, told The EastAfrican that Ruto’s trip fits with China’s scheme of dealing with the Global South.
But he said it would be Kenya’s chance to market itself.
“Ruto’s upcoming state visit to China underscores South-South cooperation urgency, amid US tariff pressures, which have caused turbulence and damage to the global economy. As the world’s second-largest consumer market, China offers vast opportunities for Kenya and other Global South nations to diversify trade,” said Mr Shen, founder of the China Briefing newsletter.
“Kenyan businesses must deepen on-the-ground market research and direct engagement to navigate China’s competitive landscape, leveraging e-commerce and regional supply chains. Amid global uncertainty, such collaboration fosters shared growth through sustained engagement and strategic market integration.”
Shen was referring to the tariff disruptions caused by the US, in which various developing countries, including Kenya, were subjected to a basic 10 percent charge.
The tariff war has been vicious between the Washington and Beijing, even as China said last week it would not be engaging in the game further. That is because the Chinese no longer see American goods as needed in their country if they remain costly.
China is pursuing stronger ties with the rest of the world, especially Africa and Europe.
China has released a White paper on its trade with the US and the rest of the world, signalling a shift to Africa and the rest of the Global South.
The report titled China’s Position on Some Issues Concerning China-US Economic and Trade Relations by the State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China, April 2025 provides insights into where China wants to head in the aftermath of its trade war with the US.
“China is proactively adopting various measures to expand imports. Actively expanding imports demonstrates China’s proactive commitment as a responsible major country and constitutes a significant contribution to global economic development,” the report reads.
“Trade wars produce no winners, and protectionism leads up a blind alley. The economic success of both China and the US presents shared opportunities rather than mutual threats.”
This week, President Xi visited his immediate neighbourhood, meeting with leaders of Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Cambodia, all of whom have been charged a higher tariff by the US.
The Chinese say Ruto’s first State visit to China conjures up the ideals of the Silk Road, China’s intercontinental trade route with which it used to establish ties beyond its territory.
Lin Jian, Spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said the visit will help cement an “all-weather China-Africa community,” including building on the pledges of the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation held last September.
But the visit has deeper significance. Ruto has been in China twice before -- in October 2023 for the Belt and Road Forum, and last year in September for the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation. He made the visits after coming to office in a campaign that promised to shun the Chinese. The Chinese subtly reminded him of the need for mutual trust and better communication.
“The two sides should enhance communication and coordination on international and regional issues, work together to safeguard the common interests of the Global South, and promote regional peace and stability,” a dispatch from Beijing said in September 2024 after Ruto met with President Xi jinping.
Experts say the Kenyan leader needs to provide assurances that he can be trusted.
“Kenya remains a very strategic partner in Africa. Simply not only because of our location, but it is the only regime that is seen to be standing and which you can negotiate with, compared to its neighbours,” said Dr Kizito Sabala, a lecturer at the University of Nairobi. “This trip is going to benefit us in a way but the hangover of double standards is still with us.”
President William Ruto shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during bilateral talks at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on September 3, 2024.
Dr Sabala said President Ruto is yet to benefit from China in a manner that his predecessors, President Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta, did.
“The reason this administration has not benefited from Chinese loans or grants is because we are always sending double signals. It is not clear whether we are for China or for the West. And the Chinese don’t like that kind of vagueness. You are either with them or not,” Dr Sabala said.
Ruto desires to complete the standard gauge railway stretch from Naivasha to Malaba, for which he has been seeking funding, and the expansion of the Rironi-Mau Summit highway, on to Malaba. The Chinese have shown signs of taking up these projects under a PPP model if Kenya agrees to contract their expertise. These two could be the biggest score yet for Ruto, who needs to reinvigorate the Northern Corridor to compete with Tanzania, which controls the Central Corridor and has been developing it, complete with an electric SGR, as the Lamu Port South Sudan Transport (Lapsset) corridor sinks deeper into the doldrums.
Dr Cavince Adhere, an analyst of China-Africa affairs in Nairobi, says President Ruto goes to China to open new trade frontiers for Kenyan products, seek development partnerships that can help the country build productive systems without adding on to the public debt, and cultivate favourable climate that can facilitate flow of Chinese investors into Kenya.
Last year, Nairobi secured an agreement for a bigger access of agricultural produce to the Chinese market, the construction of 15 rural roads worth $270 million from the China Development Bank. China has also offered to renovate public hospitals in Kenya worth $14 million at Londiani, Baringo, Kilifi, Misikhu, Bildad Kagia and Kaimosi.
Kenya exports to China fetched $206.63 million in 2023, according to the United Nations Comtrade database on international trade.
Dr Adhere said the trip could show that Kenya can build ties with both Western and Eastern hemispheres, and still move forward even when the US backtracks on constructive relationships.
The US last year hosted Ruto for a state visit, becoming the only African leader to be granted such an honour in over than a decade.
Still, even as Trump imposed tariffs, tightened immigration and cut aid, he still reached out to Kenya to play some key role in regional peace and security.
Seven out of 10 potential investors in Kenya may now come from China.
“By attracting Chinese investments, Kenya can buttress its industrial base, provide jobs to the restless youth and create additional revenue stream to the national coffers,” Dr Adhere said. “China is one of the countries with demonstrated track record to galvanise international consensus of multilateralism, economic globalisation and intercultural amity.”
When he toured China on previous occasions, he invited the Chinese to keep investing in ICT, infrastructure and other sectors, seeing them as important for the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda.
“Collaboration is essential for the achievement of our digital transformation,” Ruto said last year.
During the 2024 Focac, Ruto secured $31 million in concessional financing for the completion of 15 stalled infrastructure projects across the country.
Records from the Treasury show that China’s lending to Kenya has dropped during a period when Ruto turned to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund for loans, and firming the Bretton Woods institutions’ grip on the country’s economy.
