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Did KNBS make a Sh18.5bn blunder in 2019 census?

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Kenya population census.

For the past five years, Kenya has been making financial and policy decisions for three counties— Garissa, Mandera and Wajir— based on false data.

On Tuesday, the High Court cancelled the 2019 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) census results for the three North Eastern counties, citing significant irregularities.

Justice John Onyiego, sitting in Garissa, ruled that KNBS failed to uphold fundamental data integrity standards, leading to inaccurate population figures.

“The published results in Volume 1 of the 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census (KPHC) with respect to the mentioned areas are hereby cancelled,” he stated.

The affected sub-counties include Mandera North, Mandera West, Banisa, Lafey, Mandera East, Mandera South, Eldas, Tarbaj, Wajir West, Wajir East, Wajir North, Balambala, Lagdera, Dadaab, and Garissa Township.

Huge impact

The cancellation is a big win to North Eastern leaders— led by then Garissa Senator Yusuf Haji (who died in 2021) and former Mandera Governor Ali Roba (now senator) — who sued KNBS, the National Treasury, Commission on Revenue Allocation, and the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, arguing that the 2019 census results did not reflect actual population figures.

Justice Onyiego ordered a fresh mini-population census in these areas within a year, meaning KNBS must complete the exercise by January 28, 2026, with taxpayers, once again, footing the bill.

In the 2019 exercise that cost the taxpayers Sh18.5 billion, KNBS hired approximately 165,000 enumerators and put in place elaborate infrastructure but the court found that the heavy investment did not amount to anything tangible in the three counties.

“That a structural interdict order be and is hereby issued directing the KNBS to conduct a fresh mini-population census in respect to the affected areas within a period of one year from the date of the delivery of this judgment,” Justice Onyiego said in a judgment dated January 28.

This means that KNBS has up to January 28, 2026, to repeat the exercise in the affected areas.

The impact of the cancellation is huge, as both the national and county governments use census data to outline budget, boundary, policy and development decisions.

The National Treasury, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), Commission for Revenue Allocation (CRA), donors, and Parliament rely on the figures in their decisions.

Currently, population is one of the main factors that the CRA uses to determine how much money each county gets in a particular financial year. Alongside the fixed amount each county is entitled to, population accounts for 18 per cent of the parameters used in that decision.

Consequently, Justice Onyiego issued orders prohibiting constitutional bodies such as the IEBC, CRA, and the National Treasury from relying on or utilising in any other way Volume 1 of the published disputed 2019 KPHC results in sharing resources or determining boundary delimitation.

“Before a fresh mini-census exercise as directed above is conducted, the CRA, IEBC and the National Treasury shall continue to apply the published census results of 2009 in executing their respective mandates in respect of the affected areas or sub-counties,” said the judge, who noted that the deployment of technology did not in any way jeopardise the outcome of the census.

The judge explained that because the results were not verified through scrutiny, the only viable option was to quash them.

He emphasised that the affected communities had a legitimate expectation to have their population properly recorded, as population data directly impacts resource allocation and political representation.

“Population is everything in modern Kenya, where social, economic, and political rights are pegged on numbers,” Justice Onyiego said.

He criticised KNBS for failing to disclose that the devices used for data collection were unavailable when scrutiny was ordered.

He questioned inconsistencies in KNBS’s statements regarding the disposal of the devices, which were meant to store census data.

The judge noted that failure to disclose that the devices used in the exercise were not available during the time of scrutiny application was a clear indication that those gadgets were disposed of after the order was issued to defeat the purpose of the scrutiny exercise.

“In further contradicting himself, a KNBS witness, during his cross-examination, stated that they were served with the petition on March 22, 2020. He further stated that by the time they were served, enumeration devices had been reconfigured. This contradicts his testimony that disposal of those devices started June 3, 2020 and concluded on December 21, 2020. Which version does he want us to believe?” The judge asked.

“In any event, those devices had been requested for much earlier before the petitions were filed. Due diligence required that those devices ought to have been preserved. Besides, there was no disposal certificate filed to show how they were disposed, by whom and when. To make a blanket statement indicating the alleged pre-disposal processes does not help,” added the judge.

Senator Haji and Mr Roba had, in their case, claimed that the region’s population had grown steadily since independence until 2009 when disputes arose over alleged data manipulation.

Mandera’s census results were the most curious of the three. The county had a population of 1,025,756 people in the 2009 census. In 2019, the number had dropped to 841,353 — a 15.4 per cent drop.

In Wajir and Garissa, the KNBS recorded marginal population growth in 2019, but some specific sub-counties had lower numbers compared to 2009.

Wajir’s population in the quashed 2019 census result was 781,263 from 661,941 in 2009 while Garissa’s population grew from 661,941 in 2009 to 841,353 in 2019.

The petitioners pointed to drastic population drops between 2009 and 2019 in several sub-counties.

For example, Balambala’s population fell from 94,029 to 32,257 (a drop of 60,772), Lagdera from 92,636 to 50,315 (a drop of 42,321), Lafey from 109,856 to 83,347 (a drop of 26,393), and Tarbaj from 111,846 to 57,232 (a drop of 54,614).

The petitioners argued such drastic declines were implausible, as no significant calamities, wars, or natural disasters had occurred during the period.

“Our population was suppressed for ulterior motives, disenfranchising us in terms of national resource allocation, boundary review, and creation of new constituencies,” they said in court documents.

They further claimed KNBS denied them access to the devices used for enumeration, raising suspicions about data integrity. They also criticised the rushed release of census results within three months, arguing that KNBS failed to conduct a post-enumeration survey, a standard practice in previous censuses.

The petitioners contended that the 2019 census figures did not align with UN recommendations on census-taking or with past population trends.

Through their law firm Sagana Biriq and Muganda Advocates, they argued that census results for North Eastern counties were “grossly suppressed,” with some areas losing more than 50 per cent of their populations compared to 2009.

They also pointed out that KNBS had denied them access to its servers for scrutiny, reinforcing suspicions of data manipulation.

The CRA acknowledged that from 2013 to 2019, it used 2009 census data to determine revenue sharing.

Similarly, the IEBC admitted that the 2009 figures guided the 2013 boundary review, leading to the creation of new constituencies in the region. If the disputed 2019 results were applied, some of these constituencies could be abolished.

The 2014–2015 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey indicated that North Eastern counties had the highest fertility rates, were the most polygamous, and had the lowest family planning awareness. These findings were presented in court to dispute claims of population decline.

KNBS Director-General MacDonald George told the court that a post-census evaluation survey was not conducted due to financial constraints. Instead, alternative methodologies, approved under UN guidelines, were used. KNBS said the timely release of results was due to technological advancements, which enabled faster data transmission.

The dispute centred on what the petitioners called the “actual enumerated population”—figures reportedly gathered unofficially by elders and census officials. The petitioners argued that KNBS relied on these figures to justify the reduced population data for the affected areas.

With the court now mandating a fresh mini-census, the government has until January 2026 to rectify the figures for the North Eastern region.

bocharo@ke.nationmedia.com wasuna@ke.nationmedia.com