President William Ruto faces a delicate task as chairperson of the East African Community (EAC) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) peace talks, with experts warning his decisions could affect former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s bid to chair the African Union Commission (AUC).
With the February 15 AUC elections fast approaching, the current crisis is an acid test for President Ruto, who is racing against time to ensure harmony in the region.
The Congo crisis complicates Mr Odinga’s AUC bid by creating geopolitical tensions that may influence key voting blocs, especially within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and EAC.
Mr Odinga’s success, experts say, will largely depend on how well President Ruto as chair of the EAC navigates these diplomatic hurdles before the election.
Already the Ruto-led talks started on a wrong footing on Wednesday, January 29 after Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi snubbed a meeting to discuss the security crisis in his Eastern DRC but confirmed attendance of a separate meeting convened by southern African countries.
This has put into doubt President Tshisekedi’s commitment to the EAC bloc, and portrays his lack of confidence in the talks led by President Ruto.
The snubbing of Dr Ruto's meeting lends credence to the belief among some Congolese that Kenya is quietly supporting President Paul Kagame of Rwanda, who is accused of supporting the M23 rebels. Kigali has constantly denied supporting the group.
SADC states were due to hold an Extraordinary Summit of Heads of State and Government on Thursday, January 30 in Harare, Zimbabwe, to discuss the security situation in DRC
President Tshisekedi confirmed he would attend the SADC meeting, somewhat indicating his lack of confidence in the Ruto-led EAC talks.
Tanzania president Samia Suluhu Hassan on Tuesday, January 28 chaired an Extraordinary Summit of the southern African States that included troop contributing countries to the SADC Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC).
She is the chairperson of the SADC Organ on Politics Defence and Security Cooperation, and Tanzania is also a member of the EAC.
SADC has a membership of 16 countries, with the potential to flip the AUC elections should they view Kenya as a stumbling block in the resolution of the DRC conflict.
The regional blocs are making frantic efforts to find measures to de-escalate fighting in the eastern city of DRC Goma City and tension in the capital Kinshasa.
“The seizure of Goma, which could have been stopped by EAC, gives neighbours an excuse to point fingers at Kenya. The Nairobi process is under us (Kenya), the EAC Chairmanship is under us,” says former Kenyan ambassador to the Republic of Korea, Ngovi Kitau.
The former envoy adds: “Kenya has not been maintaining good relations with neighbours for a long time. This is why we lost the last AUC Chairperson bid to Chad (whose candidate was current AUC Chairman Moussa Faki.”
He says even some neighbouring countries did not support Kenyan candidate Amina Mohammed in the last AUC chairperson election and “this animosity needs to be addressed urgently,”
Prof Peter Kagwanja — a strategist on governance, security and African affairs — argues that the seizure of Goma, the capital of the North Kivu province in eastern DRC, by Rwanda-backed M23 has thrust the EAC into its worst crisis.
“Kenya’s failure to get the warring factions to quickly silence the guns and avert a humanitarian crisis is likely to sway Kenya’s odds in the AUC elections due in about three weeks,” said Prof Kagwanja, the Chief Executive Officer at the Africa Policy Institute.
Prof Kagwanja adds that failure to find an amicable solution to the crisis is putting a serious dent in Kenya’s diplomacy and undermining the credibility of EAC’s conflict resolution mechanism.
Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi, who is also an international relations expert, says that Kenya's handling of the Congo crisis could either benefit Mr Odinga’s AUC candidacy or hurt his ambitions.
“In the event AU member states think Kenya is not being a good arbitrator and a fair intervener, it will affect Raila’s AUC candidacy. But if they see Kenya as playing a major role and taking charge and trying to solve the matter fairly, then it is going to affect him positively,” Mr Mwangangi says.
“Some of these parties could be influential to an extent that in the event they feel this matter is not being solved the way they want it to, then expect a clash as far as Kenya’s AUC candidacy is concerned,” said Mr Mwangangi.
He added: “The issue has immediate players, secondary players and those in the periphery who are also interested in that conflict, especially if they are beneficiaries of the minerals in DRC Congo. Kenya must handle it in a way that advances key national, regional and continental interests.”
Professor of International Relations and Diplomacy Gilbert Khadiagala however, argues that the Congo crisis and its aftermath have no effect on the AUC elections slated for February.
“Not really. The canvassing for votes by the leading candidates (Kenya’s Raila Odinga and Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf) has almost ended. The unknown factor is whether the DRC now clearly votes against Odinga, in retaliation for Kenya’s role in the conflict. President Ruto is now the current head of EAC and how he exercises leadership in this role is going to matter,” Prof Khadiagala says.
This, of course, he adds, assumes that the DRC was already going to vote for Mr Odinga.
“There is some doubt about this because as a Francophone country, I expect it to vote with its fellow Francophone countries. The exception here is Burundi which you could argue is now firmly an East African country, with probably more allegiance (or deference) to Kenya. I do not think the DRC has forgiven Kenya for allowing the meeting of the Congo River Alliance (AFC by its French acronym) dissidents under Cornellie Nangaa (who is now the “political spokesman” of the M23 in Goma,” he says.
Prof Khadiagala argues that the larger effect on the AUC of the ongoing conflict is that if the conflict escalates, then the AU will take an increasingly big role in mediation and other forms of intervention. He says that it would require that there is strong and steady leadership at the AUC in Addis Ababa
On Wednesday, January 29, EAC heads of state urged DRC’s President Tshisekedi, who snubbed the meeting, to “directly engage” with all stakeholders, including M23 rebels, to de-escalate the bloody conflict.
Presidents of the member states convened virtually for the 24th extraordinary summit of the EAC Heads of State to discuss the deteriorating security situation in eastern DRC, which has resulted in significant loss of life, a humanitarian crisis, and immense suffering, particularly among women and children.
“The summit called for peaceful settlement of the conflict, and strongly urged the government of the DRC to directly engage with all stakeholders, including the M23 and other armed groups that have grievances,” read a joint communiqué from the meeting.
The heads of state from Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia, Burundi, South Sudan, and Rwanda attended the summit.
South Africa Minister of Defence Angie Motshekga on Wednesday revealed that President Cyril Ramaphosa had to issue a warning to Rwandan forces, stating that continued hostilities against the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) in the DRC would be considered a declaration of war, a statement that did not go down well with President Kagame.
She noted that South African soldiers were caught in the crossfire, but were not participating in the ongoing conflict.
“Following the recent intensification of fighting in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Africa has lost 13 brave soldiers who were dedicated to their mission and committed to peace. The fighting is the result of an escalation by the rebel group M23 and Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) militia engaging the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC) and attacking peacekeepers from the SADC Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC),” he said.
But President Kagame was quick to criticise Mr Ramaphosa, reminding him that Rwandan soldiers were not militia.
“The Rwanda Defence Force is an army, not a militia. SAMIDRC is not a peacekeeping force, and it has no place in this situation. It was authorized by SADC as a belligerent force engaging in offensive combat operations to help the DRC Government fight against its own people, working alongside genocidal armed groups like FDLR (DRC-based Hutu rebels opposed to Mr Kagame) which targeted Rwanda, while also threatening to take the war to Rwanda itself,” said president Kagame.
Prof Kagwanja points out that the Congo crisis was unfolding at a critical time when Kenya fronted Mr Odinga as a candidate for the Chairmanship of the AUC and should be handled with care.
President Ruto’s phone conversations with French President Emmanuel Macron and the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the eastern DRC, Prof Kagwanja warned, is likely to raise questions among some influential voices on the continent who prefer “African solutions to African problems and silent diplomacy rather than megaphone diplomacy.”
“A new wave of anti-French sentiment across the continent makes President Macron’s pledge that France will support Kenya’s mediation of the conflict more of a liability than an asset. Not surprisingly, angry protesters in the DRC’s capital of Kinshasa have attacked the Kenyan embassy together with those of Belgium, France, South Africa, the United States and Uganda suspected of being hostile to Congo’s interests,” says Prof Kagwanja.
