President William Ruto and Orange Democratic Movement leader Raila Odinga are stepping up their bid for Mr Odinga's chairmanship of the African Union Commission, a position with continental influence and domestic implications ahead of the 2027 elections.
In a diplomatic move on the eve of Christmas, President Ruto engaged in talks with outgoing AU Commission chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat in Narok.
“We are reforming the AU structure to make it more effective and efficient in pursuing the interests of the continent,” Dr Ruto posted on X.
“I met the AU Commission Chairperson...discussed, among other things, AU reforms and the upcoming election of the AUC Chairperson, a post that former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is running for.”
Mr Odinga’s campaign team told the Daily Nat ion that the meeting showed Dr Ruto is keen on the results of the AU Commission elections in February.
For Dr Ruto, securing the seat would cement his stature as a regional leader and grant Kenya a direct influence over decisions affecting the continent.
For Mr Odinga, it is an opportunity to solidify his legacy and bolster his significance on the global stage. The outcome could redefine the political dynamics in Kenya and across Africa.
The head of Mr Odinga’s campaign secretariat, Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei says the former PM has what it takes to win the AU Commission election.
“The AU Commission needs a leader who can mobilise Africa’s unity of purpose necessary to unlock the potential of the continent’s vast natural endowments and human capital,” Dr Sing’oei said recently.
Observers say that it will be in President Ruto’s interest if Mr Odinga secures the post, as it could have the potential of the ODM leader backing his re-election in 2027.
They say Mr Odinga may not back an opposition candidate against President Ruto if he holds the AU Commission post, as Kenya could withdraw its support for him and ultimately trigger his abrupt fall.
ODM Deputy Party Leader Godfrey Osotsi has ruled out the possibility of Mr Odinga resigning mid-way from the chairmanship of the AU seat to contest the presidency in Kenya should he win the election in February.
Should Mr Odinga be elected AU Commission chairman, he would have served two years by the time Kenyans go for the next General Election.
The AU Commission chairperson is elected by the Assembly for a four-year term, renewable once.
“Our leader is a pan-Africanist. He has an agenda for African people and his vision on matters of infrastructure, rights of African people, exploitation of resources for Africa, economic empowerment and freedom are strong,” Mr Osotsi said.
“The anti-government demonstrations Raila led last year made him lose the job he had at the African Union,” Mr Gachagua told the Daily Nation in an earlier interview.
Politician and businessman Jimi Wanjigi says it is possible for Mr Odinga and Dr Ruto to continue if he wins the AU Commission election.
“If Raila loses the election, it will affect his relationship with Ruto. It may be the end of the ties. It must be a hard task for Ruto since Raila is holding him up more than (former president Uhuru) Kenyatta can hold him,” Mr Wanjigi said.
For Ms Karua, Mr Odinga betrayed Kenyans by working with President Ruto’s “oppressive” Kenya Kwanza administration for the sake of securing the AUC post.
“I wish him well. I don’t have a vote there so let him continue with his campaigns but Kenyans are still disappointed. But we wish him well,” Ms Karua told Nation.
Mr Odinga has, however, insisted that his quest for the AUC post was his personal initiative after “consultation with friends,” adding that “I was surprised when the government backed my bid.”
Prof Makau Mutua, a key strategist for Mr Odinga’s AUC campaign says it’s impossible to overstate the importance of the AUC seat for Mr Odinga and Kenya.
“Mr Odinga’s fortunes at the AUC are intertwined with those of Kenya. No Kenyan has held such a lofty position internationally. Mr Odinga’s success in February will be a great victory for Kenya as it will raise Kenya’s profile in Africa and internationally,” says Prof Mutua.
He argues that Kenya is already admired by Africans across the continent because of its open society, hard-working people, and enviable investment and tourist destinations.
Therefore: “Mr Odinga’s triumph can only increase by multiple factors. Kenya’s bigger fortunes are Africa’s win. He will be able to speak with stature and authority at global forums such as G7 and G20. His call for two UN Security Council veto-power seats for Africa is timely.”
“Mr Odinga’s election will cement the country’s reputation in peace operations and as an example of how Africa can foster local solutions to the continent’s problems without always looking outside.
“Safeguarding Africa’s sovereignty is a task that will require a leader who can forge unity for inter-Africa trade and connectivity and to confront climate injustice, terrorism, political instability, and divisionism. Mr Odinga is that leader,” adds Prof Mutua.
President Ruto is keen to ensure Kenya bags the AUC seat and has leveraged government machinery and resources through the National Intelligence Service (NIS) to ensure the success of Mr Odinga's campaign on the continental stage.
Even though the major campaign role is conducted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Nation understands the government has tapped into the NIS expertise to boost the country’s winning prospects.
The government has incorporated the Directorate of External Affairs at NIS in Mr Odinga’s campaigns led by Mr John Sambu to tap into the agency’s wide networks in Kenya’s embassies across the continent. The NIS is to help provide necessary intelligence reports relevant to safeguarding the campaigns and sprucing up Mr Odinga’s image.
The agency's involvement reflects the high stakes of securing the AUC chairpersonship, a position that could redefine Kenya’s influence on the continent.
Mr Odinga is facing Djibouti’s foreign minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf and former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard James Randriamandrato with whom they participated in the Mjadala Afrika debate on December 13.
Mr Odinga has set out 10 priority areas as his program of action for the continent should he be elected in February next year’s election.
Among the 10- priority areas include; peace and security, infrastructure, economic transformation, harnessing Africa’s youth potential, gender equity and equality, and agricultural transformation.
“We must return unity to the top of our priorities. Without unity in a fast-consolidating and changing world, Africa will continue to be marginalised, exploited and irrelevant,” he warned.
Africa is huge, and the infrastructure down on the roads and highways and railways are not yet fully developed, he said.
However, for the skies, which are free, each country has its own traffic control, which is a hindrance to development as it makes air transport expensive in Africa compared to Europe.
The youth, Mr Odinga said, is the biggest asset that Africa has because 70 per cent of them were below the age of 35.
“This can be an asset, or it can also be a challenge. If the youth are not empowered, they become a drag on the economy. They become drug addicts, they become criminals,” the former Premier said, empowering them they become the biggest resource.
“But we first need to give the youth the requisite tools that they require to be able to create wealth for our continent,” he said.
He said he envisions a continent whose progress is driven by its own people and that pushes to be a dynamic, influential and respected force in the international arena.
“Africa’s Agenda 2063 cannot be achieved unless the multilateral normative frameworks that speak to marginalisation, exclusion, and discrimination against women and girls are fully implemented. Throughout my life, I have been an indefatigable champion of the rights of women and girls. As Chairperson of AUC, I will prioritize gender equity and equality, including opportunity, dignity, and security for women and girls across the continent.”
Africa, Mr Odinga argues, has the world’s largest arable land, yet it remains food insecure.
“The continent needs to catalyse a transformative shift in its agri-food systems to cultivate more efficient, inclusive, and resilient agricultural practices.
“I will promote agricultural transformation through championing sustainable food production, agribusiness, and the modernisation of agriculture to reinforce food security, foster job creation, and enhance rural livelihoods. Partnerships have a critical role to play in promoting global market access that will reinforce this transformation, he says.
Mr Odinga has also promised to address the “catastrophic climate change and its detrimental impact on Africa's development”.
He argues that despite Africa's minimal contribution to global emissions, it suffers disproportionately from the impacts of greenhouse gases.
African people, he adds, must not pay for a problem that they had no part in creating.
“Together let us advocate for Africa’s central role in global initiatives for climate action, including adaptation, mitigation, and building resilience informed by climate science.”
“I also commit to mobilising support for enhanced early warning systems and rapid responses to climate-induced shocks. Further, I will promote climate-positive investments and financing, leverage renewable energy resources, and integrate climate-smart strategies into our economic plans to secure a sustainable future for Africa and beyond.”
