Mr Raila Odinga’s defeat in the race for chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) has added to a string of losses that Kenya has suffered on the continental and global stage in the last decade.
But whether Kenya has learnt lessons from past bungled bids is debatable with analysts arguing the latest defeat was enabled by familiar missteps.
Nanjira Sambuli, a Kenyan scholar on Tech Policy and International Affairs, blamed the defeat on various missteps by actors in government.
“Charity begins at home. Kenya’s foreign policy comes across as separate from domestic policy, yet it is an extension of the latter,” she said.
Raila: President Ruto did all he could to support me in AUC Chairmanship race
“This is especially evident in how Kenyans themselves have, in recent times, especially (arguably amplified through social media interactions with each other and beyond our borders) shown their interest in shaping the foreign policy positions taken and articulated — from Pan-Africanism to Palestine. The exclusionary tactics in shaping both domestic and foreign policy — a tragic “sirikal” mentality — is proving inconsistent, inauthentic, seemingly arrogant and therefore ineffective, at home and abroad. Related to this, is that the steering apparatus is seemingly blind to how our loud domestic politics do influence how our foreign policy is perceived and executed.”
While Kenya has had some wins on the global stage, for instance, when Dr Mukhisa Kituyi became Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in September 2013, since 2017 when Kenya lost to Chad at the AUC, more defeats have followed.
Each of those losses was punctuated with concessions, blame games and supposed lessons for the future.
1. Amina Mohamed’s AUC and WTO bids (2017, 2020)
Amina Mohamed.
Photo credit: Fabrice Coffrini | Afp
In 2017, despite months of an extensive campaign that cost Kenya $3.5 million, then Cabinet Secretary Amina Mohamed lost AUC chair race to Chad’s Moussa Faki Mahamat.
At the time, Ms Mohamed cited “betrayal” by unnamed neighbours.
Three years later, she contested for the World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General’s post. Just like in the AUC bid, she was endorsed by President Uhuru Kenyatta-led government. She eventually lost to Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, although she had actually been eliminated in an earlier round.
In Geneva, sources then said her candidature, despite being backed by the East African Community, fell victim to Kenya’s own trade policies, including seeking bilateral arrangements when the continent was pursuing a common market. That and the fact that three other East Africans were already heading Swiss-headquartered international organisations blunted her ambition.
“There is nothing like a sure bet in international election contests,” said one diplomat who has been involved in campaigns for Kenyan candidates since 2017. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorised to speak publicly.
“When Kenya won the non-permanent seat at the UN Security Council (2020), it was because of deftness and tact,” he added, referring to Kenya’s defeat of Djibouti for the 2021-22 term. In that race, Djibouti defied the endorsement of Kenya by the African Union but lost to Kenya during the vote at the UN General Assembly.
2. Kenya’s bid to host AfCFTA secretariat (2019)
John Kyama Wambua accused of brutally killing his 19 year old wife Joy Fridah Munani at the Milimani law courts on February 17 2025..Photo/ Richard Munguti
The AfCTA was established to open up African nations’ borders and relax immigration rules and other non-tariff barriers to boost the continental business from a paltry 14 per cent.
The bid was eventually won by Ghana, with the review committee saying it based its decision on a regional balance criterion.
3. Raychelle Omamo’s bid for President of Ifad (2022)
Former Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Raychelle Omamo.
Photo credit: Diana Ngila I Nation Media Group
Ms Omamo was hoping to become Ifad’s first female candidate as since its inception in 1977, the global body had only five presidents – all men.
4. Amb Monica Juma’s Commonwealth race (2022)
Amb Monica Juma.
Photo credit: PSC
While serving as Energy Cabinet Secretary, Dr Monica Juma was backed by Kenya and the African Union in her bid to become secretary-general of the 53-nation Commonwealth. However, in February 2022, she pulled out of the race citing lack of adequate backing from Commonwealth countries for Kenya’s bid.
By the time she withdrew from the race, a campaign schedule had been arranged to tour the Caribbean region.
“Her decision came as a surprise to the Ministry, and the Commonwealth,” explained the Kenyan official at the time.
“Kenyan High Commissioners complained that they were not consulted or fully briefed. They have had to scramble to clean the egg on their faces.”
5. Nancy Karigithu’s bid for Secretary-General, IMO (2023)
Ms Nancy Karigithu.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
In 2023, Ambassador Nancy Karigithu hoped to become the first woman to lead the International Maritime Organization (IMO) as its secretary-general. She was the only African candidate vying for the most powerful diplomatic post in shipping. Despite endorsements by the AU and President Ruto’s government, she lost to Arsenio Dominguez of Panama.
At the time, shippers accused Kenya of being lukewarm and not giving her adequate support despite being proactive in developing the maritime sector. They reckoned that after the initial backing, the government didn't issue any further statements lobbying on her behalf.
6. Kenya's bid to host the Loss and Damage Hub, 2024
In 2024, Kenya lost its bid to host the Loss and Damage Hub : an organisation established to facilitate the provision of financial assistance and support to developing countries facing negative impacts of climate change. This was despite the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) identifying Nairobi as the optimal location for head office.
Kenya disagreed with the decision, terming it “very wrong and unfortunate”.
"This is a big loss for Kenya; it is about climate vulnerability in loss and damage, and the institution that is supposed to carry out the assessment should be sensitive to where it is located and who its clients are," Ali Mohammed, the special envoy on Climate Change at the Office of the President of the Republic of Kenya, said at the time.
Raila Odinga at the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa on February12, 2025.
Photo credit: Pool
Last week, Mr Odinga lost to Djibouti’s Mahmoud Youssouf, leading Kenyan President William Ruto to claim Africa had “lost an opportunity” to be led by an experienced statesman. For Mr Odinga’s loss, sources say the signs were on the wall from as early as January, something that forced him to step up his campaign. He was working against a long-built perception against Kenya.
Within Odinga’s campaign team, various actors spoke publicly on issues deemed too sensitive. And Mr Odinga himself has in the past given speeches deemed supportive of secessionist groups in Africa.
“Arrogance and the lack of political poise and humility and diplomatic acumen is all I can say. Diplomacy is complex and multi-layered and faceted,” concluded another diplomat who has been involved in campaigns before.
“During the UN Security Council campaigns, our work was night and day. It was treated as it was published, transparent and at face value,” the official added.
AUC elections: Raila Odinga concedes defeat
“Our intentions were known by all, including our detractors. We offended no one and mobilised everyone. We were in sync with the principles of continental and international diplomacy. We kept it clean and clinical. We won because we had the best game in town.”
At the time, Kenya went as far as inviting the entire diplomatic corps of countries in the UN Security Council on a tour of Kenya.
It hasn’t been an accident that Kenya has endured many losses, argued Dr Hassan Khannenje, Director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank in Nairobi. That is largely due to inconsistencies, as well as fears that Kenya is overbearing.
“There is an absence of long-term strategic planning and perception of diplomatic inconsistency in our external engagements by other countries, coupled with fear of Kenya’s dominance as a preferred place by some key states regionally and internationally.”
At the African Union, on the eve of elections, Kenya lost the battle to convert last-minute undecided voters. It is a lesson Nairobi should learn.
“Real lobbying at the African Union on the eve of the elections is as important or even more strategic than a whole year of getting endorsements. For instance, the final speech or pitching of the candidate to the African Union Assembly of Heads of State and Government, carries bigger sway, mostly to the undecided voters especially in case of 2nd or subsequent rounds whereas candidates with the least votes are eliminated, the voters become more undecided,” said Nasong’o Muliro, a Foreign Policy and Security Specialist in Nairobi.
Some of the losses may be beyond Kenya though. Mr Muliro argued the tradition of voting along colonial language identities should be subject of reforms too. The AU decided from 2021 to run leadership in a regional rotational format. But it didn’t see language blocs as a challenge. It means the French-speaking countries have led the AU for 19 of the last 23 years of its existence.
“The rules of elections need to be recalibrated to avoid the tyranny of regional blocs, religion of colonial languages identity-divide (Francophone, Anglophone etc).”
