The ‘Project’ tag is back in the political discourse with Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga trying to outdo each other on who is propped up by powerful forces behind the scenes.
While Dr Ruto is keen to brand Mr Odinga as a project of President Uhuru Kenyatta and the so-called “Deep State”, a man riding on the back of State machinery in his bid to become the Head of State next year, the Orange party leader argues that no one can be more of a project than the DP by the virtue of legally being the President’s principal assistant.
They are each keen to shun the jinx associated with being a political project, something that somewhat comes with the curse of incumbency and has failed to take off in the past when former President Daniel Moi rooted for Mr Kenyatta to succeed him in 2002 and attempts in 2013 by influential individuals allied to President Mwai Kibaki, who was serving his final term, to install ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi as a successor.
Sometimes, projects are not meant to be frontrunners. Observers say other than being spoilers, they can split the vote like Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka did in the contentious 2007 elections by running for president despite his slim chances of winning. Mr Musyoka has over the years denied being a project or a spoiler.
Projects could also be in the race for nuisance value. Since the 2007 presidential vote was a dead heat between the two front-runners, analysts argue that Mr Musyoka may have been used to deny Mr Odinga the majority vote and that part of the pact was that he would then join Mr Kibaki in government as his vice-president.
The worry in Mr Odinga’s camp today is that having made a name as an anti-establishment crusader over the years, the project label could see him lose some of his ardent supporters who may now want to view him as a sellout.
Yesterday, ODM secretary-general Edwin Sifuna sought to downplay the project characterisation.
“Baba (Mr Odinga) is the people's project. That is why every region we have gone to with the Azimio message has endorsed him for the presidency. I have not seen a meeting between Baba and the state where it has endorsed him. He is a project of the people of Kenya,” said Mr Sifuna.
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Mr Odinga has been endorsed for presidency in Nyanza, Western, Maa community, Coast, North Eastern, Turkana, Eldoret, Meru and Tharaka Nithi.
While he also denies it, Dr Ekuru Aukot’s State House run in the repeat presidential polls of October 2017, which followed the voiding of Mr Kenyatta’s win by the Supreme Court is seen as having been meant to inject some credibility into the elections after Mr Odinga boycotted the repeat elections claiming the playing field was not level. Mr Odinga’s name was still on the ballot papers even though he didn’t campaign.
Some projects never take off. For instance, Senator Gideon Moi of Kanu was for a long time initially said to be the choice of Mr Kenyatta’s camp for the 2022 elections but he has since been dropped reportedly on advice of strategists that it would be a near impossibility to sell his ticket, especially without a solid regional political base.
“Project politics” is not unique to Kenya. For example, in the 2008 Russian elections, President Vladimir Putin backed first deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to succeed him after exhausting the term limit, only to make a comeback in 2012 with Mr Medvedev not defending his seat.
When supported by the State or incumbents, experts who spoke to the Sunday Nation say, they get financial and logistical support which can be both drawn locally and internationally.
Although allies of Dr Ruto have been on record lamenting how President Kenyatta has betrayed his deputy since there was an agreement that the Head of State was to serve for 10 years and hand over the baton to Dr Ruto, the political dalliance between the President and the former premier has continued to rattle the Tangatanga camp.
Of late, the DP, who has hit the campaign trail and is leaving nothing to chance in ascending to power come 2022, has been relishing a contest where Mr Odinga is backed by the state hoping this would work against the ODM boss and play to his advantage.
“The 2022 race is like day and night. On our side, party is United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the agenda is to elevate Kenyans while on the other side is that government project. Project of Uhuru Kenyatta, Deep State and system,” said Mr Duale in Kakamega County.
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Already, the DP, who has gone bare-knuckle with his boss President Kenyatta over various issues in the Jubilee government, has been on record saying that he has not been part of the current regime after the 2017 elections. The thinking is to stop being associated with any failures on the current regime in his vote-hunting.
On Mr Odinga's side, despite his party crafting an alliance with the ruling party, is cautious about a public endorsement from the Head of State, something which political analysts argue that the two rivals are distancing themselves from being branded 'Uhuru's project'.
But Dr Ruto’s strategists have already assigned Mr Odinga the “establishment” tag and with the former prime minister saying that his administration will issue Sh6,000 monthly stipends to the families without means, the DP has now taken the trajectory of saying that his opponent is on the politics of handouts.
“That kind of programme is an insult to our country. Kenyans are creative and would like to be presented with opportunities to work and conduct business,” Dr Ruto said.
He went ahead: “The contest is very clear. It is between the Hustler Nation candidate and our agenda of bottom-up to give jobs to our young people, give opportunities to businesspeople and our competitors, project of the system who believe in patronage and trickle-down handout mentality.”
For political analyst Javas Bigambo, any person coalescing around the president will only succeed in his quest in case Kenyans feel that the President has performed well.
“The political team oscillating around the President is demonstrating that they are leaning on him and intend to use him as crutches for firm mobility in the 2022 General Election. They risk being caught with time with regard to proper coordination or individual party planning. They risk too getting the "project" tag, which may be a millstone round their necks,” he elucidated.
Prof Ken Oluoch, the Head of Political Science Department at Moi University, says that any contender who wants to succeed President Kenyatta must work hard not to be endorsed by him arguing that in our democracy, it is prudent if the presidential aspirants build their bases without any support from those in power.
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“The tag "Project" is not good for any of the potential presidential candidates. In an emerging democracy such as this, each presidential candidate would rather be seen as depending on his own popularity and manifesto as means of attracting votes,” Prof Oluoch argued.
University of Nairobi don, Prof XN Iraki, argues that the project tag applies to both sides depending on how the outgoing President has performed, noting that in an event that voters feel that the Head of State let them down by not achieving their desires, the candidate he supports will be voted out.
Citing the incident where the former premier declared ‘Kibaki Tosha’, Prof Iraki says that the sponsor in this incident had a positive image in the eyes of the people hence working in favour of Mr Kibaki, adding that in next year’s polls, if people feel that Mr Kenyatta has done little to their expectation, the person who he will campaigned for is likely to lose.
“It can be negative as Uhuru Kenyatta found in 2002. The project might be seen as weak and extension of the sponsor’s influence because voters are now more enlightened,” he said.
“It has a cost implication with regard to the diminutive appreciation that Kenyans associate political candidates as protégés of the person endorsing. Nonetheless, this is based purely on the dismal performance of office bearers, especially the President most of the time,” Mr Bigambo explained.
He, however, said that in the history of the country’s politics, those who have been labelled projects of retiring Head of States have never made it through, a gamble he says no serious candidate will try come next year.
“The primary assumption is that the "Project" will do his or her work nearly exactly and possibly as directed as the person endorsing. In Kenya, so far, no political project is looked at positively,” he said.
However, Mr Odinga has been on record saying that since he has been vying for the country’s top seat from 1997, he does not need endorsement of President Kenyatta, but just his vote.
“Mimi sitaki niwe endorsed na mtu yeyote. Sitaki endorsement ya Uhuru Kenyatta. Sitaki, kile nitataka ni kura yake tu (I do not want anybody’s endorsement. I don’t want Uhuru Kenyatta’s endorsement. I only need his vote),” he said recently.
At the same time, Mr Mudavadi has also dismissed reports that he was a project adding that even if One Kenya Alliance (Oka) fails to work, he is ready to go alone citing his first stab at presidency in 2013.
“For any politician, endorsement which matters is that of voters. Who is this who thinks that Mudavadi is waiting for the endorsement of anybody? This is propaganda. I have been presenting myself to Kenyans and I continue to do so,” said Mr Mudavadi.
He went ahead: “I am very ready to go alone even without a coalition. Even in 2013, I went ahead hence it is not a new thing to me. Going alone in next year’s poll might be difficult but not impossible.”
After being endorsed to run for presidency, Dr Ruto’s allies are also viewing Baringo Senator as a government project arguing that he has no political clout.
“What will Deep State help him with? Deep State has a very small contribution; Deep State can only assist you if you also have support but how can they support you from nothing? Like Gideon Moi has only Kamket as an MP…look at BBI vote, Baringo which he represents as a Senator, was one of the counties that shot it down,” said Mumias East MP Benjamin Washiali.
Mr Washiali says that as Tangatanga, their focus is on reaching out to Kenyans to support their bid instead of waiting for President Kenyatta’s endorsement.
“If Deep State would be of any assistance, they would have assisted Raila and they have not, this is why they keep hopping from one corner to the other…currently, there is One Kenya Alliance and ODM leader eyeing for Deep State’s support but for us, we are depending on Kenyans because this country belongs to them,” he said.
Dr Ruto, who is too keen on succeeding his boss with approximately less than a year to the next polls, is currently taking credit for the positive things the Jubilee government has done and on the other hand, he saying that he should not be blamed for the failures of the government he formed.
