As the electoral commission begins a month-long mass voter registration today, an analysis of population data reveals 11 counties have the potential to list the highest number of new voters.
The agency targets six million new voters, but an analysis of the number of eligible voters - those who are not registered and young people expected to attain voting age on time for next year’s elections - shows a figure of about nine million potential new voters.
Collectively, the 11 counties account for nearly half of the estimated total number of new voters by 2022 - 45 per cent or 4.2 million.
These are Nairobi (809,583), Kiambu (489,361), Nakuru (397,133), Bungoma (371,241), Machakos (337,993), Kakamega (337,091), Turkana (316,705), Kilifi (331,889), Meru (302,929), Uasin Gishu (285,456) and Kajiado (272,033).
Instructively, Nakuru, where the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) IEBC chose to officially launch the programme, has the third highest number of potential new voters.
This total figure of nine million potential new voters is arrived at by reviewing official population data by county based on age against registered voters per county by the last elections in 2017, when there were 19.6 million registered voters.
However, the difference could be explained in young people projected to be eligible by August 2022, eligible voters without an identity card and others who could have been listed since October 1, 2018, when IEBC launched continuous voter registration in Makueni.
But the number is within acceptable limits, considering IEBC has estimated the number of polling stations will increase to 53,000 in next year’s elections.
In 2017, there were 19.6 million registered voters spread out in 40,883 polling stations.
The Elections Act caps the number of voters per polling station at 700. In 2022, based on the Nation’s analysis, the total number of registered voters is projected to increase to 28 million.
IEBC’s targeted six million additional voters is equal to the number by which the voters registered grew between 2013 and 2017.
Voter turnout is expected to play a decisive role in the race for President Kenyatta’s successor, with Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga emerging as strong contenders.
It’s perhaps with this realisation that the two leaders are courting small regional parties that have the potential to influence voter turnout in the fierce contest for local seats that ultimately benefit presidential candidates.
Another factor that will influence the outcome of the vote is alliance building. Coalition deal-making is a game of numbers, which explains why politicians and major parties have an interest in voter registration to boost their numbers and increase their bargaining power.
Already, political parties have started posturing about the voter registration.
After a meeting of ODM leaders chaired by its head, Mr Odinga, the party claimed that more than half of the targeted six million new voters are in its traditional strongholds.
“It is our expectation, therefore, that IEBC shall deploy commensurate resources in these regions,” ODM secretary-general Edwin Sifuna said last week after the meeting of the party’s Central Committee.
“We urge all party members, grassroots leaders and all members elected and nominated on the party ticket to now retreat to their respective areas to coordinate and support the mass voter registration drive and mobilise those who have no IDs to acquire them.”
And with leaders ganging up against DP Ruto’s presidential candidacy, he has sought to frame the contest as one between a coalition of tribal leaders and the alliance of the people that he is popularising as the ‘hustler nation’.
