Azimio’s secret card to clinch parliament Speaker jobs

A provision mandating President Uhuru Kenyatta to decide the date of the first sitting of the new Parliament – within 30 days after polls – has handed him a final sway on the election of the two Speakers.

Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Coalition strategists are said to be lobbying to have the first sitting held after the Supreme Court verdict on the presidential petition filed by its candidate Raila Odinga and running mate Martha Karua.

The thinking by Azimio is that a nullification of President-elect William Ruto’s win will alter the current political alignments and have a bearing on how the newly elected MPs will vote on the floor of the two Houses of Parliament.

The grand plan by the coalition is for the President to convene Azimio parliamentary group meeting – in the event of a nullification – at the State House ahead of the vote to whip members into backing a particular candidate.

Standing Orders

According to the House Standing Orders, a Speaker shall be elected when the House first meets after a General Election and before proceeding with any other business other than oath of office by the new members

“Whenever a new House is elected, the President, by notice in the Gazette, shall appoint the place and date for the first sitting of the new House, which shall be not more than 30 days after the election,” states Article 126 (2).

This means the President has until September 8 to convene Parliament, three days after the Supreme Court pronounces itself on the petition.

But Kenya Kwanza has dismissed the scheme as of no consequence on the elections of the two Speakers.

Confidence in numbers

The alliance expressed confidence in their numbers to guarantee a win for the two position.

Nandi senator-elect Samson Cherargei said the numbers will not change even if Mr Kenyatta convenes the House after the court verdict.

He said it would be unfortunate for the President to use his powers to achieve selfish political interests at the expense of denying Kenyans their right to be served by their elected leaders.

“They don’t know the outcome of the Supreme Court. So why would they want to put the country in limbo for selfish political gain?” wondered Mr Cherargei.

“His mandate in this is a legal issue. He has to convene the House within the stipulated time. They should also be reminded that the numbers will not change whether Parliament convenes before or after the court decision,” he added.

Slim majority

Kenya Kwanza has a slim 24-23 majority in the Senate and 161-160 advantage in the National Assembly.

Dr Ruto continues to capitalise on his declaration as the winner of the August 9 polls by winning over a majority of the 12 independent lawmakers. He has also reached out to United Democratic Movement (UDM) of Mandera senator-elect Ali Roba – an Azimio affiliate – that has six members in the National Assembly and two in the Senate.

The recent political overtures by Dr Ruto places his Kenya Kwanza ahead in the battle for the two coveted positions.

But to counter this, Azimio leaders have asked Mr Kenyatta to only convene the two Houses after the Supreme Court judges make a determination, which in the event of a favourable ruling they exploit to win over independents and other small parties.

Sway numbers

Jubilee Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni said Dr Ruto had managed to create optics around his disputed win to sway numbers on his side.

Mr Kioni said that a lot will change after the verdict, which he said Azimio will win based on the evidence filed.

“Some optics have been created but we want to set the record straight in the Supreme Court. My preference would be to have the sitting done after the verdict so that we can have people make decision knowing which side is set to form the next government,” said Mr Kioni.

Nyando MP-elect Jared Okello implored on President Kenyatta to call the first sitting after the verdict as it would influence the voting pattern in the two Houses.

Supreme Court verdict

“What will happen in the National Assembly and the Senate will entirely depend on what will happen at the Supreme Court,” said Mr Okello.

“I ask President Kenyatta not to convene Parliament until after the Supreme Court pronounces itself. A nullification will change the country’s political tangent greatly. Right now people think Ruto is the man and they are gravitating to him. This scenario will change with a nullification,” he said.

Ugunja MP-elect Opiyo Wandayi said the verdict was likely to flip perception of many leaders.

“A week in politics is very long time. What is critical on our part is staying the course. I would for now avoid speculation on what would happen. Those who are rejoicing today may cry tomorrow,” said Mr Wandayi.

Kenneth Marende

Azimio is said to be keen on former Speaker Kenneth Marende’s win in the Senate to spoil chances of Bungoma Senator-elect Moses Wetang’ula in the National Assembly over regional balance. The two come from Western Kenya.

Senators are likely to dispense with their secret ballot elections within a shorter period owing to their small number, thereby their decision could inform the vote by their counterparts in the National Assembly.

There are 67 members in the senate while National Assembly has 349. Azimio is fronting Mr Marende to face off with Kenya Kwanza’s Amason Kingi in the Senate while in the National Assembly, Mr Wetang’ula is likely to face off with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

“In the Senate, we are already wooing people to cast their votes with us. I can tell you that we are talking and the senators know the kind of a Speaker they want. Ruto will be shocked by the outcome of that election,” said Nairobi senator-elect Edwin Sifuna.

Already, Mr Wetang’ula has expressed confidence that they have the numbers to guarantee a win in the Speaker’s election.

"I am going to be the third in command of the country. I pray to God that he gives me the wisdom to lead the National Assembly and coordinate well with the Senate,” said Mr Wetang’ula.

"We have the numbers, so people should not be worried. Leaders from the Northern part of Kenya and some independents have joined us and we will see to it that this country goes in the right direction," he said.

Vihiga Senator-elect Godfrey Osotsi said the vote should be delayed until after the verdict.

“I think the composition of leadership of the two Houses should be delayed until after September 5 but within the constitutional timeline that expires on September 8. Kenya Kwanza should hold their horses and wait for the Supreme Court verdict,” said the lawmaker.