The adoption of the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) constitutional reforms is turning out to be a contest between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, an opinion poll shows.
The poll further indicates that there is a general apathy towards constitutional amendments being pushed by President Kenyatta and his Handshake partner, ODM leader Raila Odinga.
The poll, conducted in December by Trends and Insights For Africa (Tifa), also reveals DP Ruto has an edge over the President in control of the ruling Jubilee Party.
It shows 21 per cent of Jubilee supporters prefer him as President in 2022 and that 12 per cent identify with the President and do not support the DP.
The poll further shows excitement is high in Mr Odinga’s base, where BBI reforms are concerned, with 66 per cent of ODM supporters saying they will vote in the referendum.
In Jubilee’s case, supporters allied to DP Ruto do not support the vote.
Even though the President has touted the time preceding the 2022 General Election as a “constitutional moment” and warned against rigidity in amending the 2010 Constitution, support is lukewarm in his base, according to the poll.
The poll shows Kenyans are nearly evenly divided over whether there should be any changes to the Constitution before the next election.
Only about four out of 10 people in President Kenyatta’s camp of the Jubilee Party support the amendments and say they will vote in the referendum. Only two say they will reject the amendments while another two (22 per cent) say they will not vote.
On the other hand, only one out of 10 people in DP Ruto's Jubilee camp say they will vote for the BBI reforms at the referendum, with five declaring their intention to reject the proposals and vote ‘’NO’. Three people in that camp say they will not vote.
While addressing the nation in August, to mark 10 years since promulgation of the 2010 Constitution, the President highlighted gains under the new order but declared that the country should not suffer due to rigidity in amending the document.
“The crafters of this social contract told us [it] was a work in progress. And, as such, we were made to adopt it with the promise that in the future, we will make it better,” he said.
However, DP Ruto has rejected this assessment, saying the clamour to amend the Constitution is only meant to create positions for a few people while locking him out of the 2022 succession race.
The poll reveals a strong correlation with self-assessed familiarity with the BBI report’s content for those who expressed the intention to vote ‘yes’ in the referendum
Specifically, those who say they know “a great deal’ about the BBI report are far more inclined to vote ‘yes’ than those who say that they know ‘”nothing” about the report.
The highest percentage of those who want the referendum conducted before 2022 are found in Mr Odinga’s ODM, where 69 per cent want the changes implemented before the next election.
Those in the President's party who want amendments done before 2022 stand at 50 per cent while the percentage -- 27- - is lowest in DP Ruto’s camp.
The biggest opposition to holding a referendum before the election is found in Ruto’s camp where 65 per cent of his supporters say they are not in support of this plan.
In Mr Kenyatta’s camp, the number of those opposed to the changes before 2022 represent a 38 per cent share while in Mr Odinga’s camp, the figure stands at 26 per cent.
On the ideal date to hold the referendum, 41 per cent of DR Ruto’s supporters want the vote to take place after the 2022 election.
Thirty-one per cent want it before the election while 19 per cent want the referendum held on the same day as the 2022 vote.
In the President’s camp, 48 per cent want the referendum conducted before next year’s election, 17 per cent on the same day and 22 per cent after August 2022.
The demand for a referendum before the General Election is high in the ODM camp, with 76 per cent of the party’s supporters saying they want the vote to take place before the General Election.
Only four per cent want the referendum held alongside the national election while 15 per cent want it to take place after.
At least 54 per cent of DP Ruto’s supporters prefer a voting format that will give them multiple choice options in all the proposals, as opposed to the ‘Yes’ and “No” answers. Thirty-five per cent prefer ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ answers to all proposals.
Five out of 10 of ODM supporters prefer ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ choices, four prefer multiple choice questions while the remaining are not sure.
In the President’s camp, those who prefer multiple choice questions are more at 43 per cent, against the 36 per cent who prefer ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ answers.
