Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s bid for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC) was widely seen as a game-changer in Kenyan politics. However, the loss that inevitably draws him back to the local scene presents the first major test for the opposition leader's truce with President Ruto.
With the loss, however, Dr Ruto’s political chessboard has just been disrupted.
His strategic push to send Mr Odinga to the continental role hit a dead end, meaning the veteran opposition chief remains a key player in the 2027 presidential contest.
Mr Odinga’s loss in the AUC race paves the way for his grand return to the helm of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party, a move that could breathe new life into the party after a period of uncertainty.
Having temporarily handed over leadership to Kisumu Governor Pro. Anyang’ Nyong’o last year to focus on his continental bid, Mr Odinga is now poised to reclaim full control of the party.
His comeback is expected to restore order within ODM, making it more cohesive and strategically positioned ahead of 2027.
His renewed leadership could swing in two directions - either aligning with President Ruto’s broad-based government or reigniting fierce opposition against it.
Either way, his return to active politics sets the stage for high-stakes political manoeuvring in the coming months.
Mr Odinga’s highly anticipated anti-Ruto crusade, especially among allies of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua , Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, and other opposition figures could, however, fall short of their expectations.
Speaking during a dinner with the Kenyan delegation in Addis Ababa on Saturday night after his defeat, Mr Odinga defended President Ruto’s role in his AUC campaign.
“I know some people will now start blame games. Ooh! Baba did not do as much as we expected, he lost because he is now tired – because he is too old and such sort of things. That Ruto was not genuine in supporting Baba and so on.
“I want to say that I made the decision to contest for this position myself and announced that I wanted to run for this position myself, Ruto only came and said that he was going to support me,” Mr Odinga said.
He showered President Ruto with praises, acknowledging his efforts to ensure his campaigns ran smoothly.
“I want to say that President Ruto did everything possible to ensure I won. He gave me all the logistical support that I needed in the campaigns.
“I was able to travel across the continent and he made appointments for me to meet all the leaders and I met all of them and that would have ensured I won but as I have said, other factors came into play and we are where we are, but let us not regret,” Mr Odinga said.
Even though Mr Gachagua has maintained that Mr Odinga was “Kenya’s finest,” and “undoubtedly the best bet for the African Union Commission chairmanship,” his allies appeared to welcome the ODM leader’s loss.
Mr Musyoka asked Mr Odinga to rejoin him in the struggle to free the country from the “mismanagement” of the Kenya Kwanza administration.
“Raila is going to seek the African Union seat and I am telling him to go but if things don’t go well, he should come back so that we liberate Kenya,” Mr Musyoka said in Mombasa on Tuesday last week ahead of the AUC vote.
Should Mr Odinga choose this path and team up with the Gachagua-Kalonzo camp, they are likely to pose a major threat to President Ruto’s re-election bid.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadu who played a key role in Mr Odinga’s AUC campaigns by virtue of holding the Foreign Affairs docket had earlier warned against some leaders he accused of wishing Mr Odinga a loss so that he could join their anti-government political camps.
He noted that either way, the AUC outcome does not affect Kenya’s politics.
“You know, there are some people who have a knack for negative energy. They always want to see the negative in a process like this. And I want to say that on a matter that is so important like this, it is really unfortunate to try and bring your local politics to Addis or any other forum internationally because the elections in Kenya will be held in 2027,” Mr Mudavadi said.
He went on: “So, all this negative energy, to me, is of no value and is of no consequence. The outcome, either way, does not affect the politics of the country because we still have our calendar, and our calendar is 2027 is when the elections are there.”
This means ODM would field a candidate against President Ruto, or have one to negotiate on its behalf with the president’s side for a possible coalition building.
While Dr Oginga has not dismissed the possibility of working with President Ruto in a future coalition, Mr Sifuna has however, ruled out any alliance between ODM and President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance ahead of the 2027 elections.
Mr Sifuna explained that ODM would only enter into an alliance with “like-minded” parties whose ideology bears similarity with ODM’s “pro-people policies.”
“The nature of our politics sometimes requires that we enter into strategic arrangements with like-minded political parties. The key phrase is like-minded. The political parties whose ideology bears similarity with ODM’s pro-people policies are known. Those should be the ones we seek to work with, not those that oppress the people,” Mr Sifuna charged.
Dr Oginga on his part said: “We will have our own presidential candidate as ODM and if there is a need for an alliance with other like-minded parties, we will agree on the best candidate. But we will cross that bridge when we come to it.”
He added: "If Ruto wants to be in a coalition with us, we will have to discuss but with our candidate in place. Dissolving ODM is also out of the question. We did that during the NDP era when we decided to work with former President Daniel Moi and it worked against us.”
Mr Sifuna says that regardless of the AUC results, nothing has changed, adding that Mr Odinga will be back at the helm.
“My boss. My mentor. My friend. My leader. You still have a home. Come back. We still love you. We are proud of you. Nothing has changed,” Mr Sifuna said.
Homa Bay Town MP Opondo Kaluma, even though he does not hold any ODM party position, has been vocal in defense of President Ruto’s deal with Mr Odinga.
Following Mr Odinga’s loss on Saturday, he said; “Prime Minister Raila Odinga of ODM should formalise a coalition with President Ruto asap!”
He lauded the President, saying he did his best to ensure Mr Odinga triumphed in the AUC elections.
“The silver lining is clear - we now know our enemies,” the legislator said without giving details.
Kiambu Senator Karungo Thang’wa and Githunguri MP Gathoni Wa Muchomba, all allies of former DP Gachagua however, welcomed Mr Odinga back to the opposition trenches.
“Rao, you fought your fight and gave it your best. But know this-you are not the problem. Sasa kuja nyumbani, tusononeke pamoja (Now come home we grieve together). NB: Remember you have the Majority in parliament,” Mr Thang’wa said in reference to Mr Odinga’s ability to mobilise his troops to provide checks and balances in parliament.
Ms Wa Muchomba said: “Kimeumana huko Addis! Now they are preparing for another lie…a Prime Minister through NADCO report implementation just to keep Baba busy. It’s a long con.”
Contrary to expectations, analysts say that Mr Odinga’s loss could still be a blessing in disguise to Dr Ruto as it would give him enough time to mobilise his “shaky” bases to back his 2027 bid.
They say that the race will now depend on whether Mr Odinga runs, who he partners with, and how President Ruto navigates internal party dynamics and the country’s economic challenges leading up to the election.
Prior to the AUC contest, Mr Odinga had insisted that he would still be available for other roles even if he lost the elections.
“If we win, very good for us. If we lose, so what! We are here in Kenya, there will be other things for us to do.
“So, we are not worried about losing. But we are not competing to lose, but to win,” Mr Odinga said in December.
He said that he was transitioning from Kenyan to continental politics in his bid to chair the AUC, signalling his possible exit from active local politics, but his loss now clears the path for his return.
But for President Ruto, a victory for Mr Odinga would have been a major boost in his bid to inherit some of the opposition bastions, including the Nyanza, Coast and Western blocs.
It would also cement the political rapprochement between the ruling UDA and ODM, ensuring political stability and a possible alliance in 2027.
Dr Ruto is struggling to hold on to the Mt Kenya voting bloc that brought him to power following the impeachment of Mr Gachagua as deputy president.
He has significantly reduced his visits to the Mountain while more than doubling his trips to the western part of the country.
Prof Macharia Munene, a university lecturer and political analyst, notes that Mr Odinga is likely to be on the ballot in 2027 following his AUC loss.
He says the loss presents Dr Ruto with a new headache in dealing with Mr Odinga, who is seen by those in government as a nuisance.
Uriri MP Mark Nyamita, who is an ODM legislator, describes Mr Odinga as a central figure in the country’s elections, saying his presence would definitely affect the 2027 polls.
Mr Nyamita notes that the political realignments will largely be determined by the political direction Mr Odinga takes.
Mr Nyamita adds that the impact of Mr Odinga’s AUC loss will depend on the political direction the veteran politician takes.
He says if Mr Odinga sticks with Dr Ruto, political stability would continue until 2027 without any new major realignments.
“If he decides to run, then everybody would go back to the drawing board,” he says.
A possible fallout between Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga would also directly affect the five ODM members appointed to the Cabinet.
But UDA organising secretary and Mwala MP Vincent Kawaya says that the outcome will not cut the political ties between Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga.
“I don’t see any reason why Raila would not support Ruto. I foresee the formation of an alliance between UDA and ODM with Raila playing a key role in Ruto’s re-election,” he says.
Political analyst Javas Bigambo argues that Mr Odinga now faces an uphill task of damage control as he tries to reinvent himself politically, even though he will be under pressure to hang his boots.
Mr Musyoka and other opposition politicians would likely pressure him to back one of them, having supported the former Prime Minister in the last election.
