The danger to Mr Gachagua, unless he plays his cards carefully, is said to be enormous that he is even risking impeachment.
"The kind of talks we are hearing from sources closer to State House and in Azimio la Umoja One Coalition is that Mr Odinga might combine numbers with President Ruto loyalists and send Mr Gachagua packing," said former Gatanga MP Nduati Ngugi on Saturday, July 27.
Mr Ngugi said: "The happenings around Mr Gachagua have destabilised our mathematics ahead of 2027 because he was part of our equation as second in command, but with the turmoil around him, he becomes a throw of the dice."
Former presidential aspirant Peter Kenneth told Sunday Nation that "despite Mr Gachagua not being our favourite politician, the office he holds is very strategic and a heartbeat away from ultimate power".
"Now it appears there are forces that are ganging up to deny him that strategic perch and should he be impeached, we will have no choice but to recalculate our future with the reality of isolation in mind," he added.
Mr Ngugi said: "The public statements by Raila and his brother Oburu Oginga that they cannot dare anticipate the possibility of a Gachagua ascending to the presidency is a bold and clear threat of impeachment.
He added: “Even if he (Mr Gachagua) survives his full term in office, it is very unlikely that he will be picked as the running mate in the 2027 elections hence leaving us as a region with the task of realigning ourselves for competition."
Similar views were shared by Nairobi-based lawyer Fanya Mambo Kinuthia, who said that the entry of Mr Odinga in the Kenya Kwanza administration has exposed Mr Gachagua’s soft political underbelly.
He said that Mr Gachagua could easily be impeached by the combined numerical strength of Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga in both the National Assembly and the Senate.
“Raila does not believe in the presidency of Mr Gachagua. He would not want to have Mr Gachagua go beyond his current position. It is now very easy to tame him. If he remains DP, he would be a lame duck DP,” said Mr Kinuthia.
Perhaps in anticipation of the unpredictable times surrounding his political career, Mr Gachagua chose to express himself on Friday in Laikipia County through a Gikuyu religious song called Jesu wee unyendete (Jesus who loves me).
Translated, the first stanza that he publicly led as a soloist goes: " You God who loves me, I will seek refuge in you, when the war is major, you are the one to rescue me. Hide me in your limbs, I man of humbleness, rescue me, my God, preserve my soul".
Though he dismissed those fighting him as "idiots trying to settle political scores", Mr Gachagua added, "nowadays I do not want to speak much...but Kenyans are very analytical, they are not fools and are much ahead than we leaders".
So tense is the moment that some of Mr Gachagua’s sympathisers have started analysing parliamentary numbers should an impeachment motion be dropped.
According to Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT) don Charles Mwangi, a combination of President Ruto and Mr Odinga's allies will surely throw Mr Gachagua under the bus.
"As we speak, Mr Gachagua controls not more than 20 MPs. At a time like this, he must remember that being warned against obsession with the village was not outlandish," he said.
Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri told Nation.Africa that "in Mt Kenya region, those defying President Ruto are not more than five out of the total 79".
Nandi Senator Mr Samson Cheraregei sympathises with the DP. "One will be justified to stand with the Deputy President since he was fixed by some he carried on his back into government".
"Some politicians in Mt Kenya drove Mr Gachagua into conflict after they started salivating for his position instead of playing by the established pecking order of the contest ticket.
Maragua MP Mary wa Maua had on June 29, 2024, alleged that some people were plotting against the deputy president.
"There is a plot being hatched against the Deputy President but our detractors must be made aware that we are going to stand with him to the bitter end,” she said.
The lawmaker claimed that Mr Gachagua was being fought for demanding one man one shilling one vote mantra.
Wiper Party boss Kalonzo Musyoka has also thrown his weight behind Mr Gachagua. He said: “Our numbers will not embrace such an impeachment motion should it be tabled in the house".
But senior counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi said Mr Gachagua's political obituary is only without a signature.
"He is the biggest casualty in the reconstituted Cabinet/government. He is a fatally wounded man and I think he will politically die of his wounds before 2027. Even though 37 percent of the Cabinet is from Mt Kenya, none of them remotely owes any allegiance to him. In fact, he doesn't have a single ally in the Cabinet," he said on his X account on Wednesday.
He added: “To say the man from Mathira is on his political death throes is not an exaggeration of his dire political fortunes. Further, President Ruto by bringing ODM into his government has created a stronger rival in government." This coupled with the elevated stature of Prime Cabinet Secretary Mr Musalia Mudavadi, the controversial lawyer added, simply makes Gachagua's position untenable.
Head of Deputy Presidential Communication Service, Ms Njeri Rugene did not respond to our queries regarding Mr Gachagua's feelings over the perceived political turbulence in his camp.
Mr Gachagua had on June 26, 2024, lamented that there was a high-profile plot being hatched to associate him, a few leaders in Mt Kenya and a former president to treasonous acts.
However, former Kiambu governor Mr Ferdinand Waititu said: “We regret voting for Mr Ruto, his actions of late are clear testimony that he has betrayed our trust".
“The only way out is to ensure in 2027 we run against him and try to reclaim power," he added.
