Today marks the fifth anniversary of the handshake between former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Azimio la Umoja One Kenya boss Raila Odinga and it coincides with when the latter is expected to launch his call for mass action against the current regime.
Mr Odinga had issued an ultimatum to President William Ruto to expedite the opening of the 2022 presidential election servers and address the high cost of living.
March 9, 2018, when Mr Kenyatta and the opposition leader agreed to a truce on March 9, 2018, a watershed moment that redrawn the country’s political architecture. Opponents of the former premier accused him of neglecting Kenyans who had stood with him throughout even as his supporters insisted he never changed.
It is on this basis Dr Ruto won the heart of many Kenyans when he hit the campaign trail with the hustler narrative, packaging himself as the defender of the oppressed.
Throughout the campaign and even after being sworn in as the fifth Head of State, Dr Ruto has emphasized that the handshake between his predecessor and Mr Odinga is the cause of the country’s economic meltdown.
With Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga on one side of the political realm, Kenyans are anxious about what the ODM leader will do next after launching the anti-Ruto rallies and his 14-day ultimatum having lapsed.
At least three regimes - Daniel Moi, Mwai Kibaki and Mr Kenyatta - had to work with Mr Odinga in one way or the other to have a conducive environment for them to deliver on their promises, something political pundits argue might be difficult for Dr Ruto to avoid.
Although allies of Mr Kenyatta and those of Mr Odinga have praised the handshake for the tranquillity enjoyed in the second term of the Jubilee administration, Dr Ruto and his allies insist that such an arrangement kills the oversight role of the opposition team.
“It has been my stance ever since; it is something I've come up with just the other day. People should know that I’m not creating any job for anyone. I've heard the Opposition leader say that he does not want that job, who was creating it for him?" Dr Ruto said in January.
“I’m looking for an office which will ensure that there is the accountability of the government. If I was selfish, why would I care for someone who opposes me? I understand that in a democratic country, people controlled by power are very easy, therefore, there is a need for a vibrant opposition.”
During the handshake epoch between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga, the two leaders changed their conduct in public.
Mr Odinga, a man defined by his abrasive brand of politics, was no longer criticising the government. On the contrary, he had turned out to be the government’s foremost defender on a number of issues, especially the war on corruption and the Big Four agenda.
The truce spearheaded joint projects including the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) and the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition which Mr Odinga used to battle it out with Dr Ruto who vied on United Democratic Alliance (UDA), for the Presidency in 2022.
The Azimio honcho who had packaged himself as defender of the oppressed since the days of Kanu regime has been giving a picture of Mr Odinga of the past years with his recent activities more so the protest meetings against the Kenya Kwanza administration.
Having lost to his political student in the 2022 August General Election, his political foes were of the viewed that the ODM boss was headed for a political oblivion but instead he has made a comeback as a vibrant opposition leader.
Mr Odinga evokes mixed emotions in Kenya - he is loved and loathed in equal measure. No politician in the country divides opinion like him.
To his supporters, he is a democrat who has sacrificed a lot in his fight against dictatorship but others see him as a scheming and selfish person, who will do anything to gain power.
His struggle against one-party dictatorship saw him detained twice (1982-1988 and 1989-1991) and he holds the record for being the country’s longest-serving detainee.
Mr Odinga of yesteryears was one who was speaking for the oppressed, he used to put up a spirited effort in keeping the government on toes more so when it came to issues which suffocated Kenyans like corruption.
Having made five unsuccessful attempts of getting to State House, he is back on the path of keeping the government in check.
Political pundits are of the view that Mr Odinga is engaging in such activities to remain afloat politically while warning President Ruto that if he continues to respond to Azimio everytime, he is likely to worsen what they describe as ‘fluid’ situation and waste time for him in terms of delivering on his promises.
“Raila Odinga is very unpredictable because when you think that he is out like what he did immediately after the Supreme Court ruling, he resurfaces and in most cases, he gets his closest friends by surprise. After the legal process which was concluded by the highest court in the land, what is happening now is a political problem of our election which should be dealt with politically,” said Prof Masibo Lumala of Moi University.
“President Ruto took long time to unite the country, in fact, they took too long celebrating the win giving Raila time to reflect on what to do next and now, if what is going on is not handled well, it will have far-reaching negative impact on our economy because when Raila decides to push a particular agenda, things get worse and that is why when Kibaki had a problem in 2007, he had to go for Kalonzo Musyoka to be a pacifier,” Prof Lumala adds.
According to Prof Lumala, taking both his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr Odinga at the same time would be injurious to Dr Ruto’s administration.
“We are still in the campaign mode following what happened last Sunday where Azimio was throwing stones at Kenya Kwanza from Jacaranda and Ruto and his team were doing the same from Narok. It is very dangerous for Ruto to attack Uhuru and Raila at the same time,” he said.
