Kenya’s political landscape is witnessing a shift that blurs the lines between the opposition and government, as the Raila Odinga-led Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) takes on a dual identity: challenging President William Ruto’s administration from within while at the same time expressing support.
In the past week, the party has intensified its criticism of President Ruto's administration, with both Mr Odinga and acting party leader Prof Anyang' Nyong'o warning the Kenya Kwanza government against “oppressive politics,” in the wake of widespread abductions.
The tough stance against the government has left ODM supporters guessing about the top leadership’s next move, even as its five members sit in the Executive, while others recently benefited from plum advisory roles in the presidency.
ODM party members in the Executive, occupying ministerial positions include; former ODM deputy party leaders Hassan Joho (CS Blue Economy) and Wycliffe Oparanya (CS Co-operatives and MSMEs), former ODM National Chairman John Mbadi (CS Treasury), ex-Secretary of Political Affairs Opiyo Wandayi (CS Energy and Petroleum), and former member of the party's elections board Ms Beatrice Askul (CS East African Community).
Additionally, President Ruto recently named more allies of Mr Odinga to lucrative plum government positions.
Prof Adams Oloo, Mr Joe Ager and Dr Sylvester Kasuku – all allies of Mr Odinga – are now part of President Ruto’s Council of Economic Advisers.
Prof Oloo is the Strategy and Communication Adviser while Dr Kasuku will handle Governance. Mr Ager will be Secretary, Governance.
Mr Ager and Prof Oloo were in the team that brokered a truce between President Ruto and the ODM leader, leading to opposition politicians joining the Cabinet.
Prof Oloo has been Mr Odinga’s adviser for many years and played important roles in his presidential campaigns and also served in the National Dialogue Committee technical team.
Dr Kasuku served as the Secretary for Infrastructure and Lapsset Corridor Project at the then-Office of the Prime Minister.
On Tuesday, Prof Nyong’o condemned the arrest of anti-abduction protesters on Monday, calling the move "barbaric."
Prof Nyong'o who is also the Kisumu Governor said the arrest of Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah alongside hundreds of protesters cannot be tolerated.
"This is absolutely barbaric. What I have seen happening to Senator Omtatah and those who were demonstrating in Nairobi cannot, I repeat cannot be tolerated in Kenya today," Prof Nyong'o told the Nation.
He was speaking barely a day after he threatened that the party would spearhead popular resistance against President Ruto’s regime if it continues to advance "oppressive politics."
In his address to the Nation following Monday protests, Prof Nyong'o said: "I am asking President Ruto to put a stop to this kind of police brutality on peaceful demonstrators and abduction of Kenyans whose only fault is that they oppose the subversion of democracy by the Ruto Government."
Mr Omtatah among other protesters were on Monday, December 30, arrested along with several human rights activists during protests in Nairobi against alleged state abductions.
“We are ready to lead a popular resistance to dictatorial and oppressive politics that tries to impose an oppressive and undemocratic regime on people through such things as abductions and precambrian political threats,” Prof Nyong’o charged.
He continued: “We therefore strongly caution the government to stop this cowardly abduction of those who criticise undemocratic policies.”
Mr Odinga had earlier warned that Kenyans cannot tolerate a gangster state, urging for an end to the abductions which precipitated nationwide protests on Monday.
“These are very dangerous developments. It’s like a mafia State where individuals who resemble police officers abduct Kenyans in broad daylight
“They resemble the gang of general Papa Doc Duvalier and his Tonton Macoute paramilitary force who used to abduct people and torture them. So this is like a state of gangsters and is not something we can tolerate in our country,” he said.
In his interview with the Nation, Prof Nyong’o noted that ODM party’s participation in the broad based government should not be misconstrued to mean embracing “oppressive” policies.
“We know our future as a party. But we are not necessarily in a position to predict the future of politics. What we are sure of in this future is our mission as a national democratic and revolutionary party.
“By revolutionary we do not mean taking up arms and fighting for change. La hasha (No way). We mean being ready to lead a popular resistance to dictatorial and oppressive politics,” he said.
Prof Nyong’o’s statement came as Mr Odinga distanced himself from claims of reaching a ‘handshake’ deal with president Ruto.
A ‘handshake,’ refers to a political truce akin to Mr Odinga’s pact with former president Uhuru Kenyatta which ended months of anti-government protests following the disputed 2017 presidential elections.
“What happened was the need to involve the larger society in the governance and if we could give president Ruto some people from our party.
“I consulted with my other colleagues in the Azimio coalition and some were ready while others were not. I then seconded some of our people to the government to work. But it was not like forming a pact or a coalition because we did not negotiate on the basis of a coalition,” Mr Odinga explained during an interview on Citizen TV.
He went on: “So, these people were basically just hired on their merits and they had to relinquish their positions in the party but not the membership. They remain members of the ODM party.”
“What you don’t realize is that there was a very high likelihood of the country degenerating into anarchy which could have been very dangerous.
“You can see what happened in Egypt and Libya during the Arab spring. If we were not careful that arrangement could have easily happened here,” Mr Odinga said.
Mr Odinga is eyeing the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC), a quest that has fully been endorsed by President Ruto.
On Sunday, the Head of State hosted Ghana’s President-elect, John Dramani Mahama, at his Kilgoris home in Narok County as he stepped up his campaigns for Mr Odinga.
President Ruto was joined by Mr Odinga at the meeting which came barely a week after the Head of State hosted the outgoing AUC chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat where they also discussed the upcoming regional polls.
Mr Odinga has however, denied that his AUC bid had anything to do in exchange for backing president Ruto’s administration, further adding to the confusion regarding the Ruto-Raila truce.
Mr Odinga is facing Djibouti’s foreign minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf and former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard James Randriamandrato with whom they participated in the Mjadala Afrika debate on December 13.
“It is a three horse race between Kenya, Djibouti and Madagascar. May be best horse win,” he said during the interview on Friday.
Mr Odinga noted that he will accept the outcome of the February 20225 election, adding that he is however, in the race to win and not to lose.
“If we win, very good for us. If we lose, so what! We are here in Kenya, there will be basically other things for us to do. So we are not worried about losing. Asiyekubali kushindwa siye mshindani. But we are not competing to lose but to win,” he said.
There have been concerns about the ODM party’s position, with a senior official confiding in Nation that they are in a “total state of confusion.”
“What we have is a seriously divided party; we have ODM in Government (ODM-IG) and “ODM-IO) and at times we don’t even know what to tell our supporters who are looking up to us for direction,” the official disclosed.
ODM Deputy Organizing Secretary Caleb Amisi has warned President Ruto to release the abducted youth or risk bearing the bad legacy alone, adding that Mr Odinga and former president Uhuru Kenyatta with whom he has a good relationship with will not save him from harsh judgement of history.
“You will carry the bad legacy alone. This is not a request. Please get these youths from the hands of abductors and apologise to the nation. I'm the only one from ODM party with the guts to tell you the truth. The rest must observe table manners. They don't care whether the same table breaks down or not, they will continue eating from the ground. Kenya needs a renaissance,” said Mr Amisi who is also the Saboti MP.
Just like Mr Odinga, Prof Nyong’o has also denied claims that the ODM party has a pact with president Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
“We shall enter into coalitions from time to time to achieve specific purposes in politics, including winning elections and forming governments without losing our identity as ODM. This will come as we approach 2027 and not now,” said Prof Nyong’o.
But Narc Kenya party leader Martha Karua , Mr Odinga’s running mate in the 2022 presidential elections has challenged the former Prime Minister to do the honorable thing and have a post-election coalition agreement with president Ruto instead of sitting in the government through “the backdoor.”
Ms Karua says it’s not right for ODM to continue clinging on opposition roles while its clear they were riding in the same boat with president Ruto ruling UDA.
“As we begin a new year, I call upon my friend and brother Raila Odinga to formalize his deal with Ruto not through a come-we-stay marriage, but through a proper political marriage, solemnised by the registrar of political parties.
“Right now, what they are doing is being less than candid, by occupying crucial seats that belong to the opposition in parliament, such as the Public Accounts Committee and the Public Investment Committee,” Ms Karua said.
She accused Mr Odinga of betraying her and the opposition cause by joining hands with the “oppressive Ruto regime.”
