Emergence of the first batch of political casualties of the deal between President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga has triggered anxiety and disquiet as its implications begin to sink in.
The political rapprochement christened “broad-based’ government has since sunk a host of major political heavy weights while hoisting several others in a development that threatens to crash careers ahead of 2027 General Election.
There are already murmurs within President William Ruto’s camp as some of his loyalists could become the biggest casualties as he seeks to get more plum government positions for Mr Odinga’s allies in his Kenya Kwanza administration as a way out of the current political unrest.
Founding members of the ruling coalition are sulking with reports that many senior State officials will have to go to pave more room for those seconded by Mr Odinga.
Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula – both from Western Kenya – signed a pre-election pact that provided for 30 per cent share for their two political outfits Amani National Congress (ANC) and Ford Kenya.
But with the entry of Mr Odinga and subsequent appointment of former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya to the Cabinet, the pact is likely to be trashed. Mr Odinga still enjoys a major following in the region, a scenario that could see him disturb the existing power balance, displacing Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula.
Former Cabinet Secretaries Prof Njuguna Ndung’u (National Treasury and Planning), Ezekiel Machogu (Education), Aisha Jumwa (Gender, Culture, the Arts & Heritage), Moses Kuria (Public Service, Performance & Delivery Management), Zachariah Mwangi Njeru (Water, Sanitation & Irrigation) and Mithika Linturi (Agriculture and Livestock Development) became the first political casualties as Dr Ruto sought to bring on board some of Mr Odinga’s allies to respond to calls of resignation by youths who’ve staged protests since June.
Others are Ababu Namwamba (Youth Affairs and Sports), Simon Chelugui (Co-operatives and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) Development), Florence Bore (Labour and Social Protection), Eliud Owalo (Information, Communications and the Digital Economy), Susan Nakhumicha Wafula (Health) and Ms Peninah Malonza (East African Community, The ASALs & Regional Development).
President Ruto appointed John Mbadi to take charge of the crucial National Treasury and Economic Planning docket, Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy CS), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives and MSMEs) and Opiyo Wandayi as Energy Cabinet Secretary. Beatrice Askul, another close ally of Mr Odinga, has also been nominated by the President as East Africa Community and Regional Affairs Cabinet Secretary. She is awaiting approval by Parliament.
The fall of Mr Owalo, Mr Namwamba and Ms Aisha have been linked to the entry of Mr Odinga and brought their apparent replacements from their regions. The deal is also a blow to political rebels, especially in Nyanza who were hoping for appointments as the President attempted to bring in leaders from Mr Odinga’s areas without his involvement. With Mr Odinga, appointees from the region would largely be based on his recommendation.
Mr Kuria has since blamed his sacking on the entry of Mr Odinga in government. Mr Kuria claimed that internal conflicts and political miscalculations, particularly by Mr Gachagua resulted in Mt Kenya region being shortchanged by allowing “other people” to land plum Cabinet posts.
"Raila Odinga's people ended up in Ruto's new Cabinet as a result of political miscalculations and unnecessary infighting amongst us from the Mount Kenya region. We shot ourselves in the foot," stated Mr Kuria on Wednesday.
“Before President William Ruto reshuffled the Cabinet, Deputy President Gachagua openly criticised and attacked Cabinet secretaries from the Mount Kenya region and that is how we ended up out of government," explained Kuria. According to the former CS, Mt Kenya got a raw deal after the reshuffle.
"I am now a jobless person... When the reshuffle happened recently, we saw others bringing in their superstars like Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya, and John Mbadi. But those from our region were replaced with individuals whose credentials are unclear. Even when you visit the encyclopedia you cannot find them there," he lamented.
Laikipia East MP and Kenya Kwanza Principal, Mwangi Kiunjuri, has also blamed Mr Gachagua for the changes in government. He suggested that the region could end up being sidelined as a result of the entry of Mr Odinga. "We sent someone to the dining table who commenced crying for more even when his mouth was full of food, hence portraying us as a greedy lot hard to please," Mr Kiunjuri said.
Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa said people should not be bothered with who becomes a casualty so long as such a deal is of benefit for the country.
Mr Barasa said bringing on board individuals who did not support Dr Ruto in the last election will help the ruling party to broaden its support base.
“It is in the interest of any government to widen its support base. When we bring on board those who did not support us in the election, we will be reaching out to more people to support our agenda for the country,” said the MP.
“It is a good thing that no one should think they are indispensable. In any decision, some people have to be casualties. People should not be concerned about those who would be crushed in the process but the general good,” he said. Mr Barasa said those sacked should not start whipping emotions of their supporters as they failed to deliver.
Although Mr Gachagua has maintained that Mt Kenya did not lose in the newly reconstituted Cabinet, his government of shareholders does not hold any more. He will have to contend with having opposition figures running some of the ministries in the Kenya Kwanza administration.
“A government of national unity is his worst nightmare come true. The thought of welcoming Raila into the government is repulsive to the DP as the opposition in his words "are not shareholders_ " in the government as their regions did not vote for the president,” said Prof David Monda, a political analyst and a university lecturer.
“Gachagua will also have to lose much of his agenda-setting influence over government policy as he will not be the only voice the President listens to. Ruto will have to compromise with the opposition.
“Politically, the broad-based government will threaten the delicate Kenya Kwanza alliance as Ruto and the opposition can plan alternative political formations for 2027 that will sideline Gachagua. Remember Gachagua is already struggling to become the kingpin of the notoriously independent Mt Kenya region,” Prof Monda said.
Just like the famous 2008 handshake between former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr Odinga that left a trail of casualties and also gave rise to new power brokers, the deal between Mr Odinga and President Ruto could have the similar outcome as well as shape 2027 polls.
In the 2018 deal, Dr Ruto, who was then serving as deputy president, turned out to be the main casualty. His decision to oppose the truce made him lose favour with his then boss, Mr Kenyatta, before he was tossed out from the core of running of government.
A majority of Jubilee politicians who were allied to him also lost their plum parliamentary leadership positions in a purge staged by Mr Kenyatta on the floor of both the National Assembly and the Senate.
Some of his allies who lost their leadership positions in Parliament include then National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale, Kipchumba Murkomen (Senate Majority Leader) and a host of others. The two are currently in the Cabinet.
Already former Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala has been kicked out as UDA Secretary General . Although his troubles at the ruling party started way before the deal between Mr Odinga and the President, his public pronouncement that was seen as being against formation of the broad-based government is said to have accelerated his sacking from the plum office.
