As the debate on the influence of the so-called “deep state” on succession and presidential elections rages following Deputy President William Ruto’s claims that it is out to stop him, two former State House officials have opened up about the perceived influence of the shadowy powerful group.
Mr Matere Keriri, who served in the Mwai Kibaki administration, and Mr Franklin Bett, one of the last comptrollers in the dying days of the Daniel Moi regime, say there is nothing more influential than the “system” in statecraft.
“When you fall out with the Head of State, the ramifications are so enormous. The ‘system’ makes it its business to deal with you. Friends and business associates drift away from you in droves as if you have leprosy,” Mr Bett said.
It is a similar situation that some in the DP’s camp say capture his current predicament as he has not only been losing political allies but even government officials avoid him.
“I served the colonial government when I was a young men, I later served Jomo Kenyatta’s regime, Moi’s regime and Kibaki’s so I know a few things about how governments function. If the ‘system’ trains its guns on you, it will destroy you. The ‘system’ has the power, has the machinery at its disposal. It can make and also destroy you— ask people like Raila Odinga for instance. They know what the ‘system’ is and what it can do,” Mr Keriri told the Sunday Nation.
He said that in some occasions, the system is a puzzle, even for insiders.
“You may think you are part of it but sometimes you don’t know who or what really it is. You deal with the unknown,” the man, now in his mid-80s said.
Mr Bett says that the consequences are more dire when the individual in question has skeletons in his closet.
“You end up even losing properties. And if you were pursuing some business deals here and there, they will never materialise,” he said.
In his view, it is reckless for the DP to publicly blast the powerful bureaucrats and other influential figures.
“When I see my good friend Ruto talk like he’s doing, I wonder what he’s trying to do. These are not people you want to fight, you need their support to succeed,” Mr Bett said.
He argues that since this is a do or die as the operatives know that losing out would mean that the DP will go for them in the event of presidential win, they will pull out all the stops to tame his ambition.
But Dr Ruto holds that “like they went against the wishes of the ‘system’ in 2013 to win the presidency”, he will do it again in 2022.
DP Ruto has in at least three occasions now blamed his political woes on a group linked to his boss Uhuru Kenyatta that he accuses of erecting roadblocks on his road to State House., bringing to the fore operations of ‘the system or deep state’.
His pronouncements have reportedly irked a section of the president’s men who feel the second in command is running away from his own shadow.
But there are also reports that some insiders are advising caution and the need for a safe exit in case the man from Sugoi outmanoeuvres them in the next presidential election.
Some believe that in many governments across the world, including Kenya, there is a network of individuals with strong connections to power who pull the strings when and how they want it, mostly from behind the scenes.
While some have official positions in government or politics, others do not hold any post but are hugely influential. Their actions are seen but in most cases, they remain faceless. Some, however, dismiss the existence of such a shadowy group and even doubt its influence.
In Dr Ruto’s case, insiders who spoke in confidence said that while certain individuals want a complete political decimation of the DP, there is a clique that has no time for him but hold that the war can be waged while still being mindful of any unforeseen outcome.
Mr Keriri admits that there are occasions that the President’s men, mostly those who belong to the deep state (not all allies of a president are members of this group, he says) act without consulting him.
He is however quick to point out that for decisions with far-reaching consequences, the Head of State must be briefed as soon as possible.
“Those exercising delegated function have full responsibility. Even on occasions that the President is around, they do not have to consult.
The general rule, however, is to make the best decision in one’s opinion and ensure the President is kept informed,” he said.
A number of insiders agree that the “deep state” can sometimes involve a powerful family, especially if one or more of them is in power.
A coterie of advisors who are relied upon to carry out specific tasks from time to time have with time become an extension of the behemoth that informs major decisions taken by the government away from the official channels.
Typically, such a team would meet regularly to review previous decisions and assignments as well as commission fresh ones.
In Kenya, such decisions are relayed to a “fixer” for implementation. Depending on the nature of the task at hand, other strategic advisors are engaged from time to time depending on the changing political or economic landscape.
Key individuals whose advice is usually sought include like a former Central Bank of Kenya board member, an ex-official at the State Law Office, and a State House official who once worked in the security sector.
Another key member of the group is a senior parliamentary official who handles the legislative side of issues.
Dr Ruto’s camp has also often accused some senior officials of frustrating him, something those named have often denied. Did Interior Principal Secretary Karanja Kibicho, for example, instruct county commissioners and field commanders never to attend any functions organised by Dr Ruto? Yes, the DP’s camp often says. No, says Dr Kibicho.
Anti-corruption crackdown
Insiders say sometimes, the security apparatus is co-opted especially on decisions with far-reaching consequences on the Nation-State. Senior military and intelligence officials are often called upon.
Their role includes giving periodic situational reports. Concerned that the country was going to the dogs following the disputed presidential poll in 2017, insiders said it is the senior security officials who encouraged the handshake between President Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga.
A related concept in the United States of America is a bit dissimilar from Kenya’s case. President Donald Trump has for instance been lamenting that the “deep state” is working against him in the November elections. Mr Trump does not have kind words for both the FBI and the CIA.
There is a long held belief among many in the US that a military-industrial complex, an extension of the deep state, secretly runs their foreign policy.
Mr Odinga’s elder brother Oburu Oginga recently kicked up a storm in the DP’s corner when he said that his brother has the backing of the system in the next presidential poll, forcing the second in command to fire back.
“All these elections, we have been getting the most votes, but not ending up in State House because we did not have the system. But now in 2022, we have both the system and our votes which are always the majority—what more could we ask for?” Dr Oginga posed demonstrating the premium politicians place on the faceless entity.
While to observers the move by the DP to take on the system head on may boomerang on him, the thinking in his camp was that he urgently needed to reassure his base that he may be down but not out.
Former Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar, now working for the DP confirmed this reasoning when he said, “We are a nation of youth. They (the deep state) are not men of courage, these are cowards. When you use a system to commit crimes or officialise them, you’re a coward.
This a debate we have decided to engage in deliberately because Kenyans are starting to fall into this theory that the deep state will temper or influence the outcome of the elections despite their vote. Come out and vote, come out and defend the vote, come out and defend the transition when it comes” he said on Thursday.
A day earlier, Dr Ruto had also sought to reassure his constituency.
“We must be steadfast and firm; after all, we are the people. They’ll come with the system, but we will be there with the people and God and see who wins. I just want to tell them: ‘We’re waiting for you’. This system, this deep state we are being told about, we are waiting for it,” the DP said.
