Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga may be carrying the baggage of incumbency and risks being lumped together with President William Ruto by government critics over past and future failures following the duo's political deal, analysts have warned.
While he made it clear that theirs was not a political coalition, the fact that he left the window open and has already benefited from his allies being included in the government, Mr Odinga appears to have let out the secret of his plan to work with Dr Ruto in the 2027 general elections.
Mr Odinga has faced accusations from the opposition, with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Defence Minister Eugene Wamalwa describing his move to join President Ruto as a betrayal of the people and the youth.
Mr Odinga faced the same dilemma after he joined President Uhuru Kenyatta in a handshake on March 9, 2018, in which the latter endorsed him for the top job against Dr Ruto in 2022.
Now Mr Odinga finds himself in an almost similar position: He has to confront the government's abuses, sometimes at great personal cost.
In his tours around the country to 'consult' on the proposed deal with President Ruto, Mr Odinga has already hinted at the problems within the government.
He listed questions on the effectiveness of the Social Health Authority (SHA), the Housing Levy and President Ruto's pet project on affordable housing, inadequate funding to counties, reduced funding to county assemblies, equitable distribution of infrastructure development and the construction of new markets across the country.
Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka is convinced that his party leader has been given a heavy burden to carry and fears it could tarnish his image.
“If you force the government to do things from outside, it is better and very effective and they will be done, but what Mzee (Mr Odinga) is doing is repeating the same mistake he did with Uhuru (Mr Kenyatta) in 2018,” said Mr Onyonka.
However, he explained that the only advantage of being an insider "is to know the enemy and be close to him because it gives you the opportunity to learn how he operates and gives you time to counter him in the future".
He added: "The only way for Raila is to clean up Ruto's mess. That is the only way he will get the support of the people".
Prof Winnie Mitullah of the University of Nairobi believes that for the President, the new arrangement is simply a matter of survival, even if he relies on other factors, while for Mr Odinga it is both a risk and a possible gain, depending on how it turns out.
“The ODM team must steal the show in government by ensuring that they turn round the key dockets they have been allocated. This should also be extended to the committees in parliament where there will be a new crop of leadership from the ODM side,” said Prof Mitullah.
Mr Daniel Orogo, a political analyst, says the ODM brigade will only take credit for its half and leave the failures to the Kenya Kwanza side.
“Raila’s timing has always been wrong and he is repeating the same mistake again in 2025. He gets into a deal after bloodshed, extrajudicial killings, abductions and a time when the people are angry and frustrated with various government policies. He signs a deal when the people need a strong opposition,” said Mr Orogo.
He noted that Mr Odinga’s rivals have mastered the art of bringing him on board every time after the elections.
“It seems that this has always been a long con game. Every time Mr Odinga is about to make a major move, he meets with Mr Kenyatta. And just when everyone is warming up to Baba as the saviour, then boom, you see him joining the government,” said Mr Orogo.
Apart from the deal signed, the fact that some of the experts from ODM are in the Executive, analysts point out, can only mean that he now co-owns plans and problems with President Ruto.
But when asked whether they will suffer the same fate and carry the burden of a failed government come 2027, Mr Odinga’s elder brother and Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga in a recent TV interview downplayed such claims, saying they do not have enough stake in the Kenya Kwanza government, to carry that load come next polls.
“There are no ODM policies being implemented at the moment. We are not in government and therefore cannot take responsibility for it. In fact, a few months to the election, nothing will stop Raila from contesting for the presidency or any other leader from ODM. We can also form coalitions with other people,” said the Siaya Senator.
His sentiments are shared by political analyst Dr Obora Okoth who believes that the about 20 percent share of the government does not
“Currently the ministries of Health, Agriculture, Education and Interior are the ones Kenyans have the most problems with, while the Attorney General works in the background. The ODM CSs will easily tell the people what they have done and absolve themselves from the Kenya Kwanza baggage,” said Dr Okoth.
Mr Joshua Nyamori, a political commentator and advocate of the High Court, feels there is no way Mr Odinga has inherited baggage.
“The new arrangement is helpful to both Mr Odinga and Dr Ruto in that it stabilises the country to enable the President to deliver and re-assure his re-election. For Mr Odinga, it gives him political relevance and an opportunity to bring change from within and push his policies with the support of government systems,” said Mr Nyamori.
This however has been dismissed by the interim Party leader Anyang’ Nyong’o who has previously stressed that the party is intact.
“This happens often even in the Conservative and Labour Party (in the UK). In the United States now, President Donald Trump, who is a Republican, is appointing some people from the Democratic Party.
This does not mean that the Democratic Party has joined the government. When it happens here in Kenya, why does it become so strange?” said Prof Nyong’o in a past interview with the Nation .
