Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua (left) and ODM leader Raila Odinga.
With the 2027 General Election drawing closer, ODM leader Raila Odinga and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua are emerging as unlikely kingmakers in the presidential race.
The two politicians have strong support bases, but may not run for the top office due to circumstances beyond their control.
For Mr Odinga, age may rule him out from making a sixth attempt at the presidency, while Mr Gachagua — who was removed from office by way of impeachment — is currently barred from contesting.
However, he could be on the ballot if he clears his name through the courts.
These obstacles could leave them with no option but to back other hopefuls in the 2027 presidential race.
President William Ruto, who has declared he will seek a second term, is among a small group of politicians who have never lost an election in his nearly three-decade career.
President William Ruto.
Having made his debut in elective politics in 1997 as Eldoret North Member of Parliament, Dr Ruto now faces yet his most difficult test. His fate may well lie in the hands of Mr Odinga and Mr Gachagua, as Kenya’s presidential race has traditionally been a two-horse contest.
Political analyst Professor Macharia Munene said the two are most likely to play kingmaker roles in the 2027 elections, albeit for different reasons.
He said that Mr Gachagua is unlikely to run for president and will instead focus on settling political scores with President Ruto by ensuring he does not secure a second term.
Describing the former DP as an astute mobiliser, Prof Munene said he may be more influential between him and Mr Odinga.
“Mr Gachagua will not run in 2027, but his main objective will be to ensure President Ruto is defeated. He has already indicated he will support someone else, most likely Kalonzo Musyoka,” said Prof Munene.
On the other hand, he said Mr Odinga appears uncertain about his next move. With the President’s popularity waning, Mr Odinga finds himself in a situation similar to the 2002 election.
“He (Odinga) might try to replicate what he did in 2002 with the 'Kibaki Tosha' moment by supporting Ruto on condition that he wields considerable influence in the next government. But he might also choose to run in order to have a stronger bargaining position,” the don said.
Political reinvention
Forced by circumstances, Mr Odinga is unlikely to be on the ballot in 2027. His political clout has weakened after aligning himself with Dr Ruto’s unpopular administration.
Though long hailed as a master of political reinvention, Mr Odinga, who will be 83 in 2027, now faces mounting challenges. His association with the broad-based government and the rise of Gen Z voters — who are demanding generational change in leadership — have further narrowed his options.
And Mr Gachagua carries the baggage of impeachment, which may disqualify him from running for president unless this is overturned by the courts.
Fully aware of this, the former Mathira MP, now seen as the de facto leader of the opposition, has openly expressed his willingness to support Wiper leader Mr Musyoka in the next elections.
Having vowed to crush Dr Ruto’s re-election dreams following their acrimonious fallout, Mr Gachagua is aggressively campaigning to pull the vote-rich Mt Kenya region away from the President.
Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
Former vice president Mr Musyoka has emerged as the frontrunner for the opposition’s presidential ticket, with former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i being mentioned as a possible challenger.
Last week, Mr Gachagua vowed to do everything in his power to remove President Ruto from office, even if it means playing the kingmaker role.
He said Mt Kenya voters had shown that they were not tribal by supporting Dr Ruto, a Kalenjin, in 2022 and could easily back another candidate.
“These same people from Mt Kenya who voted for you (Ruto) have the capacity to support somebody else. It must not be you,” said Mr Gachagua. “They can vote for an Akamba, a Kisii, a Luhya or a Maasai. That sense of entitlement you are displaying over the Mt Kenya vote is misplaced,” he said.
Mr Gachagua said he would mobilise Mt Kenya voting bloc combined with others to deny Dr Ruto a second term.
4.5 million votes
In 2022, President Ruto won largely thanks to support from 17 counties particularly the 10 Mt Kenya counties and seven from the North Rift which together contributed nearly 4.5 million votes, about 63oercent of his total. Laikipia, Tharaka-Nithi, Murang’a, Kiambu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Embu, Meru and Nakuru collectively gave Dr Ruto nearly three million votes.
Ultimately, he polled 7,176,141 votes (50.49 percent) to narrowly beat Azimio la Umoja’s Raila Odinga who garnered 48.85 percent.
It is these votes and more that Mr Gachagua now pledges to direct to the opposition in 2027.
He is said to be quietly building support for Mr Musyoka with last year’s inclusion of the Kamba community into the Gema Cultural Association seen as part of a broader political strategy.
The emerging alliance between the two leaders has even produced a new rallying cry: “Hi Cousins.” This, observers say, signals Mt Kenya’s openness to backing Mr Musyoka as their preferred opposition candidate.
Mr Musyoka is seen as a safe bet boasting national appeal and extensive experience in coalition-building.
“I am happy Mr Musyoka and his people have become part of us. Let me go to my region and deliver eight million votes while he brings in four million. Together with our allies, we will beat Ruto by more than six million votes,” said Mr Gachagua earlier this year.
Despite his fallout with Mr Gachagua, President Ruto is banking on Mr Odinga’s traditional strongholds of Nyanza, Western, Coast, Nairobi, parts of Northeastern and Rift Valley to replace the Mt Kenya vote and boost his re-election prospects.
In 2022, these areas delivered over five million votes to Mr Odinga supplemented by support from Mr Musyoka’s base.
Mr Odinga, despite being a perennial candidate, has also played the role of kingmaker as seen in his 2002 endorsement of Mwai Kibaki which ended Kanu’s 24-year rule.
Last year, ODM Deputy Party Leader Godfrey Osotsi said Mr Odinga may choose to play a similar kingmaker role in 2027.
“You know when Raila is a coach, he’s more lethal than when he’s a player. Look at 2002. You saw that 2002 Kibaki Tosha moment when he took the role of a coach and you saw how we won the election overwhelmingly,” said the Vihiga Senator.
Energy and Petroleum CS Opiyo Wandayi one of four ODM leaders co-opted into the broad-based government says Mr Odinga remains the undisputed political leader of the Luo community and will guide them on political direction.
