Embattled Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and his strategists are weighing different options in the face of a planned ouster motion that threatens to end his political career.
The ouster bid presents Mr Gachagua with at least five scenarios of being impeached, resigning to avoid going through impeachment trials, being impeached by the National Assembly but saved by the Senate, being impeached by both Houses but rescued by courts or reaching out to his boss President William Ruto to have the motion dropped.
Of all the scenarios, an impeachment would present a major political blow to Mr Gachagua as it would imply a permanent ban from holding a public office. He would join former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko, who remains popular but cannot run for an office.
Mr Gachagua has a political ambition to hold the highest office on the land, with people close to him indicating that he could be planning to challenge President Ruto in 2027. Already, the man has endeared himself to his Mt Kenya people, by creating an image of being the region’s number one defender.
It is on this basis that some analysts argue that it would be in his interest to resign when it becomes apparent that he cannot survive the impeachment. By resigning, he would be out of office for three years, but can begin to mobilise for his 2027 plans.
Mr Gachagua has indicated that he is not ready to resign. But some of his allies say resignation could be his last option, lending credence to the reports that he could be toying with the very idea.
“No, never. Why? I have been given a job by the people of Kenya. This job has its own hindrances and challenges. It's part of the job process. And when I took this job, I knew it was not easy. Only I didn't know it would be that soon,” Mr Gachagua said last Friday.
Embakasi North MP James Gakuya, a close ally of Mr Gachagua, said they are mobilising for a fight.
“We are aware people would be bought to vote in a certain way but we will fight it to the end. Resignation is our last option,” said Mr Gakuya.
Constitutional lawyer Bobby Mkangi said it is possible for Mr Gachagua to resign even when the impeachment trials are on, so long as he does so before the final determination.
He explined that if impeached, he would suffer the consequences of Chapter Six of the constitution that bars him from holding any other office. Article 75 (3) of the Kenyan constitution states that a person who has been dismissed or otherwise removed from office through impeachment is disqualified from holding any other State office.
“The fact is that you resign before the completion of such a process,” said Mr Mkangi.
He gave the example of former Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) commissioners Juliana Cherera, Justus Nyangaya and Francis Wanderi, who opted to resign rather than face the Tribunal that was formed by the President to probe their conduct during the last election. Commissioner Irene Masit, who went through the process was hounded out of office on recommendation of the tribunal.
Mr Mkangi also cited the example of former US President Richard Nixon, who opted to resign in 1974 when the Congress recommended that he be impeached over the Watergate scandal.
Nation Africa has also established that Mr Gachagua team is also toying with the idea of him going through the impeachment trial and only move to court if he loses the battle on the floor of Parliament.
This strategy is informed by previous wins by governors, whose impeachments were reversed by the courts.
Former Embu Governor Martin Wambora and ex-Wajir boss Mohamed Abdi were both kicked out of office by the MCAs and their removal upheld by the Senators. They, however, made a comeback to their offices after their removals were nullified by the courts.
While this route may save him from being kicked out of office and the attendant consequences of not holding a public office, he would for three years be in an administration where he is openly unwanted.
It would mean an open isolation by the President and other top government officials. He would be literally having a big office with no job.
“Let them table the motion so that we can deal with it on the floor of Parliament. Let them table the motion if they have the numbers as they claim. I want to tell them that we are also mobilizing,” said Mr Gakuya.
“They should also know that justice can also be found elsewhere, not just in Parliament. When the motion comes, we will fight it both in Parliament and outside. As we fight in Parliament, other people will go to court,” he said.
Prof David Monda, a US-based Kenyan lecturer and a political analyst, notes that resignation would save Mr Gachagua from public humiliation that comes with impeachment.
“I don't think the Deputy President can survive an impeachment motion. Ruto has the numbers from Kenya Kwanza and the ODM faction of Azimio. This formidable basket of votes against the DP will also include minor parties that want to bandwagon around Kenya Kwanza and ODM to share the spoils in bringing down the DP,” says Prof Monda.
He notes: “If the DP is impeached, the fallout on the Mountain will be massive, especially with the sense of betrayal the DP is painting to his followers of Ruto. More importantly, is the presence of Raila Odinga in the Kenya Kwanza tent and the enduring Railaphobia that has been pervasive in the region for many generations.
The other option is for Mr Gachagua to reach out to the President to resolve internal disagreements and forestall the impeachment.
Already Mr Gachagua has proposed to president Ruto to call his house to order, a move that would avert a fall out, and cool down the rising political temperatures.
A motion for impeachment of the Deputy President originates from the National Assembly pursuant to Article 150 of the constitution.
The motion must be supported by one-third, which is 117 members, and then supported by 233 members of the National Assembly for it to pass.
Former Law Society of Kenya (LSK) President Eric Theuri, however, says that President Ruto’s political ratings are on free fall and therefore losing the impeachment motion will “puncture his already diminishing political chances.”
“On the other hand if successfully impeached the Deputy President will not be able to hold public office in light of the constitutional dictates to that effect, hence neither of them can afford to lose,” said Mr Theuri.
The impeachment process, he adds, “is obviously going to be challenged in court if it succeeds in parliament.”
“Chances are that it may affect the political career of those who vote in favour of the motion especially if it is stopped by the Courts. I also expect the Judiciary to come under immense pressure while dealing with the issue,” added the former LSK boss.
Lawyer Willis Otieno also reaffirms that an impeached public officer like the DP is ineligible to hold any public office hence an early resignation would save his skin if at all the opposing camp marshals enough numbers.
“You cannot hold any other public office if impeached. You become ineligible to run for any office or even appointment to public office. The Supreme court reaffirmed this in the Mike Sonko case,” Mr Otieno said.
He was referring to the case of former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko who was impeached and later put a spirited fight in court, before the Supreme court slammed brakes on his political career.
“As in the case of former Kiambu Senator Karungo Thang’wa who had been ousted while serving as CEC, he managed to get clearance on court and became eligible to run in the last election where he secured the Kiambu senate seat,” added Mr Otieno.
He went on: “So if Gachagua were to be removed from office by way of impeachment he will never be liable to run for president if he aspires to. But if he opts to resign before the process is concluded; then he’d still qualify.”
