The atmosphere should be electric when the Kenya Kwanza presidential candidate running mate Rigathi Gachagua and his Azimio la Umoja counterpart Martha Karua face off at the Catholic University of East Africa stage tonight – presuming none of them develops cold feet.
As the presidential debate establishes itself as a vital component of Kenya’s electoral democracy, it serves as an increasingly important platform for candidates to showcase their manifestos, demonstrate their grasp of issues, and distinguish themselves from their opponents.
It is also a platform from which the electorate can assess the candidates when they go head-to-head, gauge their pitches, sincerity and demeanour, and make their choices.
The presidential debate is an American innovation dating back to 1960, when rising Massachusetts senator John F Kennedy, the Democratic Party nominee, took on vice-president Richard Nixon, a Republican, in the first nationally televised event.
It wasn’t until 1984 that vice-presidential debates were incorporated in the package. They have been largely sideshows and have had little impact on the election, but they have had their memorable moments. They also take on added significance when seen not just as a duel between the lieutenants, but as a measure of the presidential gravitas of potential deputies aiming to stand a heartbeat away from the presidency.
While the face-off to come between Deputy President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga at the head of the Kenya Kwanza and Azimio tickets, respectively, will no doubt be the main event, the duel between their respective deputies could be just as captivating for a number of factors.
More than any other election under the 2010 Constitution when the concept of running mate was introduced, the post has assumed much greater significance in terms of what it brings to the ticket from regional numbers, the appeal of the nominee across ethnic boundaries, the gender factor, record and background, charisma and electability.
Mr Gachagua and Ms Karua were both selected from the Mt Kenya region for obvious reasons. This was so because there was a need to secure the largest ethnic vote basket in the country that was considered up for grabs in the absence of a successor to President Uhuru Kenyatta from his home region.
By the time Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga unveiled their respective nominees within a day of each other in the middle of May, the former was already seen to be running away with the huge Central Kenya vote though President Kenyatta had abandoned him and instead thrown his weight behind the veteran opposition chief Odinga.
While Mr Odinga’s selection of Ms Karua was widely hailed as it caused ripples across the political landscape, Dr Ruto’s naming of Mr Gachagua elicited a collective groan, even from within Kenya Kwanza, where he had trailed in a number of internal polls.
Ms Karua ticked many boxes: the first woman on a major party ticket; reform credentials with a record in the trenches alongside Mr Odinga during the multi-party campaign in the 1990s; reputation as a clean politician during decades as MP for Gichugu and minister; and tough as nails, often referred to as the ‘Iron Lady’ or ‘The only man’ in President Kibaki’s government.
Dr Ruto’s choice, by contrast, came only with two major credits – his mobilisation skills and reputation for spending generously in the search for votes. The former district officer, who handily won the Mathira parliamentary seat in his first attempt in 2017, was also recognised for his experience in government administration, and his tough no-holds-barred approach, especially when taking the fight to President Kenyatta’s doorsteps in central Kenya. It is also presumed that he knows where many of the skeletons lie hidden given a long stint as Mr Kenyatta’s personal assistant.
While the principal duel for the State House is between Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga, what cannot be overlooked is the race to fill the Central Kenya void after President Kenyatta’s exit.
The debate between Mr Gachagua and Ms Karua might help provide clarity, because in many ways it will be about the presidential prospects of the two.
Ms Karua generated excitement that no doubt boosted Mr Odinga’s campaign, though it remains to be seen just how much she brought in actual votes, especially from Central Kenya.
Recent opinion polls show that in actual numbers, she brought little to the Odinga basket, either in boosting his Mt Kenya support or winning him the women’s vote. While Mr Gachagua is still acknowledged as a great mobiliser, it is also apparent that he brought little of a Mt Kenya vote with him as Dr Ruto had already captured that without needing his help.
A face-off will be an intriguing contest between two tough and strong-willed politicians, both armed with sharp-tongues not used to taking prisoners.
Sharp and articulate, Ms Karua on the campaign platform speaks in measured and careful tones, often sounding like a schoolteacher trying to explain a point to slow students.
Mr Gachagua, by contrast, is the rough-hewn, garrulous performer with a penchant for verbal gaffes that often has Dr Ruto wincing.
It is no accident that while the Azimio campaign has gone out of its way to feature Ms Karua alongside Mr Odinga on billboards and in TV advertisements, Kenya Kwanza prefers to showcase Mr Gachagua only in safe territory.
A debate will be the perfect opportunity for him to prove the sceptics wrong, if he can hold his own and show that he was not a terrible mistake that called into question Dr Ruto’s judgment.
And for Ms Karua, a good performance will prove that the hype around her was indeed justified, and also place her in a strong position to fill the vacuum left by President Kenyatta, with an eye on 2027.
The debate is sure to be a clash of personalities as it will be about the competing platforms, and it will likely also be a proxy fight in advance of the Ruto-Raila showdown.
Ms Karua will probably be keen to highlight her reform credentials dating back to her role in the campaign for a multi-party system when Mr Gachagua was serving as a government administrator in the one-party regime.
She might also want to showcase her relatively untainted reputation against Mr Gachagua’s basketful of ethical questions.
In response, Mr Gachagua will move to shift focus to the captivating Kenya Kwanza campaign platform around the ‘bottom up’ economic policy proposals that have helped Dr Ruto steal Mr Odinga’s usual platform as champion of the oppressed, downtrodden and marginalised.
He will also want to point the finger at Mr Odinga as an apologist for the Jubilee government’s failures in the areas of a tanking economy and prices of fuel, maize meal, cooking oil and other essentials hitting the roof.
While Ms Karua will trumpet Azimio’s commitment to the fight against corruption, it can be expected that Mr Gachagua will trot out the Kenya Kwanza refrain that Mr Odinga is complicit in the Kenyatta regime graft.
The debate could be hard and brutal, making the Gachagua-Karua face-off a must-see.
A big question is whether personalised exchanges will eclipse the conversation on the competing policy platforms by which the two campaigns must ultimately be judged, especially around the viability and cost of the myriad campaign promises that mostly include just throwing money at every interest group completely oblivious of the fact that the national budget is not elastic.
Worth watching will be which of the two loses their cool. On the campaign platform Mr Karua is calm and composed, while Mr Gachagua comes across as angry, with a penchant for foot-in-mouth outbursts.
