Tawe, the 'No' or 'Reject' political movement of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, faces a litmus test in 2025 as the county boss looks to amass a following, to rival that of Ford Kenya and its leader Moses Wetang'ula as he eyes national politics.
Mr Wetang’ula, the National Assembly Speaker, has not hidden his quest to be the region’s kingpin, but Governor Natembeya sees the Ford Kenya leader and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi as old guards, who according to him, have contributed nothing to the region, either politically or development-wise.
Since the August 2022 elections, Speaker Wetang’ula has been positioning himself as the de facto political leader of Western, owing to the performance of President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Alliance in the region.
In the 2022 elections, Ford Kenya garnered only five parliamentary seats as opposed to 17 in 2013 and 24, when the party was headed by the late vice president Kijana Wamalwa.
“Tawe is a Luhya word that translates to ‘no.’ In the context of our emerging movement, it embodies a rejection of bad governance and a rallying call for fresh ideas in our political landscape. We refuse to accept the status quo marred by issues such as rampant corruption, partisan gridlock, obstructionism, lack of transparency, and negative campaigning,” the Trans Nzoia Governor declares.
He said earlier this year: “Today, if Kalonzo Musyoka coughs, the entire Kamba nation will get cold. The same with Raila Odinga but what about the Luhyas? If the president wants to talk to the Luhya nation, he will go through Mr Odinga, because he (Mr Odinga) has got 20 MPS in Western.”
Ford Kenya has enjoyed stranglehold on Trans Nzoia governorship with ex-Governor Patrick Khaemba holding forte for 10 years, before Mr Natembeya’s wave swept aside Ford Kenya in 2022.
Not seeing eye-to-eye after the last polls, the two leaders engaged in heated political confrontations as they battled for the soul of the more than two million voters in the restive region. The political tension between him and Mr Wetang'ula escalated dramatically, when their supporters clashed during a funeral in Goseta, Trans Nzoia County, on March 22 during the burial of Mr Wetang’ula’s relative.
“Soon you will face harsh judgment from the electorate. You will realise your irrelevance in society,” Mr Wetang’ula warned following the ugly clash.
By June, the Western region had experienced a turn of political events as Governor Natembeya moved to popularise his Tawe movement, through his ‘meet the people’ tours in Kakamega, Vihiga and Busia counties.
Governor Natembeya has maintained that the Tawe message resonates with the challenges of the region and the movement will have a great influence on the political landscape in the region in the 2027 General Election, if the recent political development is anything to go by.
He has been committed to his political push and pundits note that he will be a key political player and decision-maker in the Mulembe nation, a move that has made him brush shoulders with senior political players in the region.
Among the leaders in the region who have accepted the Tawe gospel are outspoken Saboti MP Caleb Amisi (ODM), Roots Party leader George Wajackoyah former UDA secretary General Cleophas Malala.
Although the Tawe movement's momentum has waned, Mr Natembeya insists that its full impact will only be realised through political power capture.
“This movement is not just for the Western region; it must now spread across the country because it is a wake-up call targeting a change in the status quo,” Mr Natembeya stated.
In a recent interview with the Nation, he maintained the movement has only just begun, warning those who dismiss it as mere political posturing that they will be in for a rude awakening.
“This movement has awakened the voters in this region. We have spread the message, and now I must focus on delivering the mandate for the people of Trans Nzoia,” he said.
He clarified that his political fight with Mr Wetang'ula and Mr Mudavadi is not personal, but a call for accountability as long-time stewards of what he deems as bad politics in the region.
Mr Natembeya expressed his disappointment that Luhyas, the second-largest community in the country, has seen their political influence undermined by Mr Wetang'ula and Mr Mudavadi, alleging they have prioritised their personal gains.
"We need to end this pattern where the community’s numerical strength is not reflected in its socio-economic progress," he said in the interview.
The governor stated that he remains unaffected by criticism from certain leaders who have labelled him a tribal leader, for advocating for the socio-economic advancement of his community.
The Tawe movement leader noted that President Ruto's recent choice of the younger Prof Kithure Kindiki as his deputy indicates his intention to pass the baton to him and has no Luhya candidate in his succession plans.
"By 2032, Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula will be older, which will hinder their ability to compete with younger, more energised candidates and this means we must take a paradigm shift as a community and plan for our future political direction,” noted Mr Natembeya.
But Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale said the Tawe Movement was an idea which tried to run before it could even learn to crawl.
“Natembeya is very junior. Why he looks like a force is because of social media that gave him such a perception, but when it comes to where the rubber meets the road, he still has a lot to do,” said Mr Khalwale.
Likuyani MP Innocent Mugabe agrees, saying Governor Natembeya’s influence does not go beyond Trans Nzoia and even in the county, he is still at loggerheads with some MPs from his DAP-K party.
Political pundits from the region aver that Mr Natembeya’s sentiments should not be taken lightly in regard to the next polls.
Political analyst Herman Manyora agrees that the Luhya community is unlikely to secure the presidency shortly if it continues to rely on the Mudavadi-Wetang’ula alliance to take them to the house on the hill.
“The current political dynamics show that voters are favouring younger leaders over older ones, complicating the prospects for Mr Mudavadi, who will be in his late 60s in 2032,” argues Mr Manyora.
However, Dr Alutalala Mukhwana, a political analyst argues that Mr Mudavadi should not be dismissed solely based on his age, as other politically significant factors must also be considered.
“In 2032, Mr Mudavadi will be 67, and I don’t believe that, in political terms, this age is too old to suggest that his political career will be dismissed,” notes Dr Alutalala in an interview with Nation. Africa.
The two DAP-K MPs are Kakai Bisau of Kiminini and his Cherang’any counterpart Patrick Simiyu, who are coalescing around Speaker Wetang’ula.
“Which sitting MP supports Natembeya? He might have some following in the county but in terms of leadership, he has to prove himself in 2027 to be considered as a force. For now, it is just speculation that he can pull numbers. It has not been tested,” said Mr Mugabe.
“Even if the movement luckily becomes a third force, it will be a very weak one because the problem is that the movement demeans other leaders already in the political space instead of working together with them,” he added.
"Mudavadi's political stature and brand have established him as a key figure in President Ruto's political landscape, despite delivering fewer votes in 2022, therefore, it's premature to write him off," he observed.
