Grand re-union of ODM Pentagon without Raila and Nyagah

It will be part of the ODM party’s four-day anniversary celebrations, coming barely a month after Odinga’s death on October 15, 2025, with Nyagah having passed on in December 2020.

The ODM Pentagon, an invention of Odinga’s political machine, was a campaign juggernaut that grew out of the 2005 referendum battle.

Odinga, then a Cabinet Minister, led the Orange camp (No side) against then President Mwai Kibaki’s Banana side (Yes side) in full defiance of his boss, rallying a coalition of political heavyweights into what became the most visible opposition formation of the era.

The Orange side triumphed, handing Kibaki a political defeat and setting the stage for Odinga’s second presidential bid in 2007.

To market the ODM as a national movement and counter the perception that it was a Luo-led outfit, Odinga unveiled the “Pentagon,” a star-studded team of five regional kingpins: himself (Nyanza), Dr Ruto (Rift Valley), Mr Mudavadi (Western), the late Joe Nyaga (Mt Kenya) and Najib Balala (Coast).

Later, Charity Ngilu was roped in to add gender balance and broaden ODM’s national appeal after Kalonzo Musyoka broke ranks with Mr Odinga.

Mr Balala and Ms Ngilu, in a recent television interview, recalled Odinga’s legacy in putting the team together.

“During the formative years of the ODM party and the ODM Pentagon, I had the honour of serving alongside him as a founding member. I witnessed first-hand his rare ability to identify and empower young, visionary leaders, and his constant pursuit of a united and prosperous Kenya,” Mr Balala said.

“If you speak of ODM, you cannot write me off,” Mr Balala quipped, suggesting his readiness to attend the upcoming ODM jamboree.

For Ms Ngilu: “It will not be easy to get a leader of Raila’s calibre.”

In 2007, the Pentagon electrified the campaigns, traversing the country with a message of change.

ODM nearly toppled President Kibaki, and the disputed election results plunged Kenya into post-election violence, leading to indiscriminate loss of lives, the displacement of more than 600,000 people and massive destruction of property.

Yet beneath the surface, mistrust and suspicion festered.

By the time of the 2013 elections, the Pentagon had fractured.

Dr Ruto joined hands with former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who also campaigned for the “No” side in the 2005 referendum.

Mr Mudavadi briefly attempted a “third force” in the 2013 poll, while Odinga carried ODM into Cord.

Mr Balala drifted into the victorious UhuRuto Jubilee coalition camp before fading from the national limelight.

Today, history has circled back.

President Ruto, Mr Mudavadi and Odinga’s ODM party, once comrades-turned-rivals, are again aligned, this time in the broad-based government that Dr Ruto is crafting in the wake of his “handshake-style” rapprochement with the ODM wing of the opposition.

Read: 'Nusu mkeka': The day Raila lost his cool

ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga terms the re-union a classic case of “what goes around comes around.”

“Or perhaps, as they say, mountains don’t meet but people eventually do. Whether it’s Najib Balala, whom I haven’t seen in a while, though I hope he will attend the celebrations (ODM@20 celebrations), or Musalia Mudavadi or the others, the Pentagon members have truly made good for themselves in this country,” Ms Wanga told the Nation in an interview.

She went on: “As we mark 20 years of ODM, we can only look to the future and what it holds, even as we reflect on how far the party has come and the leaders who shaped its journey.”

Mr Mudavadi, long in Dr Ruto’s camp, sits at the heart of government as Prime Cabinet Secretary, while Odinga, who passed on last month, effectively thawed decades of hostility with the President.

“Their re-union within ODM underscores the fluid nature of Kenya’s politics, where yesterday’s rivals become today’s allies in the endless dance for survival and influence. For Raila, who has since departed but left his ODM party in government, he spent decades in opposition, but his détente with Ruto before he passed on was both a tactical retreat and a statesman’s pivot. For Mudavadi, it is vindication of his quiet, pragmatic approach to politics. And for Ruto, it demonstrates his knack for co-opting former opponents to consolidate power,” argues political analyst Dismas Mokua.

Mr Nyaga passed on in 2020, and Ms Ngilu, who was part of the Pentagon’s expanded team, remains on the political periphery after a bruising exit from Ukambani politics in the last election.

“As Kenya grapples with economic strain, political realignments, and the search for stability, the reassembly of the Pentagon — albeit in a different form — signals how Kenya’s political elite continually recycle alliances. The same leaders who once shook the country with their ‘Pentagon rallies’ are again scripting its future, this time from within the walls of government,” says Advocate Chris Omore.

Former ODM Executive Director Magerer Lang’at recalls that the Pentagon had banked on steering the party to power in 2007, only for the dream to collapse following the disputed elections.

“People had already shared opportunities in anticipation, and when it didn’t happen, it became a real challenge for the movement. In the run-up to the Grand Coalition, ODM and PNU agreed to work together to form what many called the ‘nusu mkate’ government (Grand Coalition Government). To me, that arrangement worked very well. I was glad to serve in it as an Assistant Minister in the Ministry of Energy, courtesy of ODM.”

Mr Lang’at, however, recalled that emerging differences within ODM ranks in the run-up to the 2013 elections killed the Pentagon dream.

“The differences that later emerged were sharp. Then Prime Minister Raila Odinga on one side and William Ruto on the other became the biggest protagonists in charting the next course of action. That disagreement, fuelled by ambitions over the presidency, is what ultimately led to the fallout.”

“We are, however, glad that the three leaders’ camps, President Ruto, Odinga’s ODM and Musalia Mudavadi, are back together, and Kenyans can only hope for the best,” he told the Nation in an interview in Kericho.

President Ruto has since signalled a possible coalition with ODM following their Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) inked on March 7 this year that could lead to a rebirth of their 2007 Pentagon ahead of the 2027 election campaign trail.

The Head of State has stated that his broad-based government, which has seen former ODM party officials appointed to the Cabinet, is not a short-term venture, raising stakes on a possible working arrangement with the opposition outfit.

“I assure ODM members that we will support them, because Baba believed in the multiplicity of parties. The strength of ODM matters to me because it is how we are going to have a strong democracy,” President Ruto said during Odinga’s funeral service in Bondo on Sunday, October 19.

Western votes 

ODM, he insisted, “will either form the next government or be part of the next government. What I will not accept, in honour of Odinga, is people playing with ODM to make it an alienated opposition party.”

Political analyst Martin Oloo argues that President Ruto, knowing that Central Kenya may not vote for him to the last man in the 2027 elections, was looking to Western and Nyanza regions to shore up his support.

“By standing by Baba (Odinga) and dispatching him to the AU in February, his chances in Nyanza will be okay,” Mr Oloo said before the ODM leader’s death.

Mr Mudavadi agreed that “the Kenyan political landscape is constantly evolving,” but added that the focus at the moment should be on addressing the immediate challenges facing the nation.

“The Pentagon was a product of specific circumstances in 2007. Kenya has moved on and so have we. We believe that Kenyans are looking for leaders focused on delivering concrete results, not rehashing past political alignments. Our focus is entirely on implementing our economic agenda and ensuring a brighter future for all Kenyans,” Mr Mudavadi told the Nation in a recent interview.

But in a sign of a possible working arrangement, Mr Mudavadi, the founder of the now-defunct Amani National Congress (ANC) party, committed the outfit to a merger with UDA.

National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed, a close ally of the late Odinga, has constantly called for reconciliation between the two political formations (ODM and UDA), citing bitter exchanges during the 2022 election campaigns.

“Let’s forgive each other on the 2022 campaign utterances and support an end to the politics of exclusion,” said Mr Mohamed.

ODM is already enjoying the fruits of the Ruto–Raila camaraderie, with some of its former top leaders appointed to the Cabinet while other close figures have been named to various key presidential advisory roles.

Some of the ODM leaders named in the broad-based Cabinet include former ODM deputy party leaders Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), former ODM national chairman John Mbadi (Treasury) and former Secretary for Political Affairs Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), as well as former member of the party's elections board Beatrice Askul (EAC).

Prior to his death, Odinga made one of his clearest public hints yet that he could back President Ruto’s re-election bid.

He publicly asked critics of the broad-based government to give the administration space to deliver, promising that Kenyans would judge the arrangement in 2027.

“To the naysayers, give us space and judge us in 2027. This is going to last till 2027; after that, we’ll see where we go,” he said during the burial of former Karachuonyo MP Dr Phoebe Asiyo in Homa Bay on July 5.

Already, the President has moved to meet some of Odinga’s demands in the ODM–UDA ten-point agenda signed on March 8, including launching a State-backed framework to compensate victims of protests and demonstrations dating back to 2017.

The concession is not merely a human rights milestone for ODM; analysts say it is also a tangible sign that Dr Ruto is prepared to honour the ten-point Memorandum of Understanding signed on March 7.

Siaya Senator and Odinga’s elder brother, Dr Oburu Oginga, who was confirmed as ODM party leader on Friday, has made it clear that ODM’s dalliance with the broad-based government is not a temporary flirtation.

“We are in this broad-based government to stay,” Dr Oginga recently said.

“We are in it until 2027, and we are sure we are going to build bridges and bricks. I’m confident we will succeed in our mission. This time round, ODM will either form the government or be in government, not in the opposition trenches.”

Ms Wanga echoed the sentiment, warning party members against undermining the decision to work with the President.

“You cannot tell us to leave the broad-based government when the decision was made by the party. If you truly speak for the party, you must follow its agenda. We can’t get into the Wamunyoro [Rigathi Gachagua’s] issue because he said he had set a trap for Baba [Odinga]).”

UDA leaders appear confident the partnership will outlive the next election.

Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei told the Nation that the cooperation between Kenya Kwanza and ODM “is working very well” and will continue beyond 2027 “for the benefit of the country.”

Sources in both State House and ODM say the growing synergy between Dr Ruto and ODM has parallels to the 2007 ODM Pentagon — a regional power-sharing alliance that brought together Odinga, Dr Ruto, Mr Mudavadi, Mr Balala, the late Joe Nyagah, and later incorporated Ms Ngilu.

“The reincarnation of the Pentagon ahead of the 2027 general elections is a known unknown. The pattern is forming towards a Pentagon that may admit two additional members to replace Joe Nyagah and Najib Balala. The Pentagon may end up as one of the key determinants of the 2027 presidential race,” says Mr Mokua, a political analyst.

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