Fears and anxiety of possible major political shifts are swelling ahead of the start of proposed negotiations initiated by President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga to end the 2022 post-election crisis with behind-the-scenes attempts to scuttle any truce, exposing the hidden agenda from each side.
It has emerged that some key political players in both the ruling Kenya Kwanza Alliance and the Opposition Azimio la Umoja Coalition are pulling strings to frustrate the talks over fears that they could become victims in the event of a rapprochement between the two top leaders.
Even though a “Handshake” has been ruled out, their fears seem to stem from the aftermath of Mr Odinga and former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s 2018 deal that left a trail of political casualties after some power brokers were edged out of the running of government and new ones ushered into the core of the administration.
Under the deal, Mr Odinga ended up carrying the baggage of Jubilee administration’s failures, a phenomenon his close allies say made him lose to President Ruto in the 2022 presidential race — and which is still a real fear now should the talks succeed.
In the run up to the last polls, Dr Ruto turned Mr Odinga into a punching bag, heaping all the blame of Jubilee’s unfulfilled promises on the opposition leader.
The dialogue team is likely to hold its first joint meeting on Thursday after the Kenya Kwanza team leader and National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah requested for the new date following a Monday proposal by Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, the opposition’s lead negotiator.
Interviews with some of Mr Odinga’s allies also reveal jitters in his camp that the deal could blow up the support base he has built around agitation for the government to bring down the skyrocketing cost of living.
Some Kenyans – including those who voted the current regime to power – have identified with the opposition over its position on the high cost of living that has made life unbearable to the majority of hustlers, who swept President Ruto and his deputy Rigathi Gachagua to power.
Politicians in Kenya Kwanza also believe that the demands by the former Prime Minister are just but a decoy for him to join the government through the backdoor or gain momentum ahead of the next polls.
Mr Gachagua and some of his close allies, especially from Mt Kenya, seem to have taken hardline positions against the talks for fear of losing their clout and influence in the current administration should Mr Odinga find any form of working relationship with the President.
“As agreed, there shall be no discussions of whatever nature on matters handshake or nusu mkate,” said Mr Ichung’wah, a message drummed up during Dr Ruto’s five-day tour of the Mt Kenya region. In his letter to Mr Musyoka on the first joint meeting of the team, Mr Ichung’wah maintained that “we will not participate in any manner on any issue that undermines any arm of government or undermines our laws and the constitution”.
Jitters in Mt Kenya, which overwhelmingly voted for Dr Ruto, are said to have informed his five-day tour to give assurance over their stake in the Kenya Kwanza administration.
With still a second term to fight for in the 2027 elections, President Ruto is not willing to trigger discontent in his base. Influence of Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi is also at stake in the event of a deal similar to the famous “Handshake”.
In the 2018 deal that had no formal role for Mr Odinga, Dr Ruto, who was then serving as deputy president, turned out to be the main casualty.
He remained in government to the end of his term but he and his allies lost influence in the running of the Jubilee administration. But Mr Odinga has repeatedly indicated that he is not interested in a handshake with Dr Ruto.
Similar fears of being edged out have also hit ODM rebels and government officials, especially from Luo Nyanza, who are scared of losing relevance. The Sunday Nation has learnt that some of the individuals sought for assurance that they would not be relegated.
MPs Gideon Ochanda (Bondo), Caroli Omondi (Suba South), Elisha Odhiambo (Gem) Mark Nyamita (Uriri), Paul Abuor (Rongo), Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda and Lang'ata MP Felix Odiwuor alias Jalang'o severed links with Mr Odinga to work with Dr Ruto. Information, Communication and the Digital Economy Cabinet Secretary Eliud Owalo and Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo are some of the senior government officials from Mr Odinga’s backyard.
The Sunday Nation has learnt that there are plans by those in government in the region to go around and discredit the talks.
“There is a reason for concern given the past, because Raila is looking for a handshake. That handshake would mean some power to him. He wants power and how he gets it does not matter. In 2018, when he came in, Ruto lost,” says Macharia Munene, a professor of history and international relations.
Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei says they have worked with Mr Odinga long enough to understand his tricks.
“We have made it clear that we are not going to entertain nusu mkate (government of national unity) in any format. Historically, Tinga (Raila) has been using this kind of trick to join the government. He did with Daniel arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta,” says Mr Cherargei.
He claims that Mr Odinga was using some African presidents and the international community to arm-twist President Ruto to accommodate him. “The opposition is trying to create a crisis out of nothing to achieve personal interests,” says Mr Cherargei.
The Kenya Kwanza team has indicated that it will stick to the reconstitution of Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), implementation of two-thirds gender rule, entrenchment of the National Government Constituency Development Fund in the constitution, and entrenchment of the Office of the Leader of Opposition and Prime Cabinet Secretary in the Constitution.
But ODM deputy party leader Wycliffe Oparanya maintained that their focus remains on lowering the high cost of living. He says those frustrating the talks should provide an alternative approach to resolve the issues facing the country.
“We are not going for a handshake with this government. We have in the past learnt the hard way,” says Mr Oparanya.
Although he declined to give details of how ODM became a victim of the March 2018 “Handshake”, some opposition officials have indicated that the deal made Mr Odinga lose some of his supporters and credentials as he was made to defend the Uhuru administration.
Some of the opposition MPs who spoke to the Sunday Nation in confidence, expressed their displeasure with the talks, saying they risked losing the ‘hustlers’ they had already started grabbing from President Ruto. The said the talks would favour Kenya Kwanza rather than the opposition, since the government would take all the credit.
Mr Odinga’s anti-government protests were a major headache to Dr Ruto administration. The government lost revenue running into billions of shillings. The protests were also a threat to investors.
Nominated MP John Mbadi termed the talks a waste of time, saying President Ruto was not committed to the talks.
“I don’t see any seriousness on the side of Kenya Kwanza. I am not optimistic of any positive outcome. The choice of hardliners like Ichung’wa and Aaron Cheruiyot is an indication that Ruto is not committed to these talks,” he said.
He, however, indicated that Azimio had not abandoned their supporters, saying the cost of living remained top of the list of issues to be discussed. “Our people were not killed on the streets because of entrenchment of CDF in the Constitution or entrenchment of the position of PCS, these are mundane issues,” Mr Mbadi said.
Wajir West MP Yusuf Farah also said entrenchment of CDF and embedment of the Office of PCS in the Constitution are not a priority to Kenyans.
At the same time, some Azimio MPs feel that Mr Musyoka, a top diplomat internationally, is too senior for the talks based on the team fronted by Kenya Kwanza.
