The June 8 judgment on former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment has emerged as a crucial factor in the 2027 elections.
According to analysts and observers, it will have implications for President William Ruto’s re-election bid and the aspirations of Wiper Patriotic Front boss Kalonzo Musyoka and Jubilee deputy party leader Fred Matiang’i, the two United Opposition presidential hopefuls.
The High Court will deliver judgment in consolidated petitions challenging Mr Gachagua’s October 2024 impeachment.
The petitions challenged the constitutionality and legality of his removal from office by the National Assembly and the Senate.
He is seeking, among other reliefs, compensation equivalent to the salary and benefits he would have earned had he completed his five-year term and a declaration that his impeachment was unconstitutional and unlawful.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at Milimani Law Courts on May 13, 2026 for the hearing of his legal challenge against his 2024 impeachment.
Photo credit: Billy Ogada| Nation Media Group
Mr Gachagua’s legal team maintains that the impeachment was marred by flaws, including “a denial of fair hearing and a hurried process”.
The judgment, analysts say, could trigger a new round of political realignments, with implications stretching far beyond his political future.
Mr Dismas Mokua, a pundit, says Mr Gachagua has succeeded in transforming his political troubles into an asset.
He says the former DP has cultivated political capital that is likely to shape Kenya’s electoral landscape, whether he seeks the presidency or not.
“He has converted a crisis into an opportunity and has become a major factor in the 2027 equation,” Mr Mokua said yesterday.
The analyst argues that several opposition figures are increasingly looking at Mr Gachagua as a kingmaker, banking on his endorsement to strengthen their chances against Dr Ruto.
His influence, particularly in parts of Mt Kenya, has made him a valuable ally whose support could prove decisive.
However, Mr Mokua cautions that a Gachagua presidential bid, if cleared by the court, could benefit President Ruto.
He says a crowded opposition field would split anti-government votes and make it easier for the incumbent to secure a second term.
That possibility places Mr Musyoka in a difficult position. Having waited for decades while backing opposition causes and supporting Raila Odinga in previous elections, the Wiper leader is seen as determined to pursue his own presidential ambitions in 2027.
Mr Mokua says asking Mr Musyoka to step aside for Mr Gachagua would be politically costly and potentially career-defining.
“Mr Musyoka’s core base will look for a new leader if he abandons his presidential interests,” Mr Mokua said.
Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
That, too, applies to Dr Matiang’i. While the former Interior Cabinet Secretary has emerged as a possible opposition contender, his political philosophy and long-term ambitions, according to Mr Mokua, may make it difficult for him to back Mr Gachagua.
Some observers say he is more likely to seek his own path as he attempts to offer voters an alternative vision.
Dr Matiang’i says he will only support a scientifically proven method of picking a presidential candidate for the opposition and not a boardroom decision.
Political commentator Herman Manyora says government and opposition camps face challenges as the General Election approaches.
For President Ruto, the university don argues, the first task is acknowledging the political and economic frustrations facing most Kenyans.
“The President has to admit that things are not easy,” Prof Manyora said.
At the same time, he warns that opposition leaders should not assume that the popular “Wantam” (one term) slogan alone can deliver victory.
According to the analyst, the opposition must move beyond rhetoric and quickly agree on a single candidate capable of mounting a credible challenge against the incumbent president.
Prof Manyora also questions the opposition’s strategy of delaying the selection of its presidential flagbearer.
As a result, the High Court’s decision on Mr Gachagua may not only determine his political future but also influence the delicate calculations shaping the country’s next presidential contest.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna addresses the media at Karen Hospital following the discharge of Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi on April 11, 2026.
Photo credit: Wilfred Nyangaresi | Nation Media Group
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who has also emerged as an important figure in the 2027 succession race following the launch of his Linda Mwananchi Movement, maintains that the only way to dislodge President Ruto from power is through a united front.
“We as Linda Mwananchi have resolved that we will not be used to make Ruto to secure a second term. We are convinced that there is no other formula apart from a united ticket against William Ruto,” the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) secretary-general has been quoted as saying.
According to United Opposition spokesperson Mukhisa Kituyi, Kenya’s next election “must be a contest of ideas, not egos.
Dr Kituyi has called for a structured process that prioritises a hopeful’s competence, reform credentials and economic recovery programmes.
