How Gachagua walked himself into Ruto trap in Mbeere North

While President Ruto kept off the ground assault, instead dispatching a team led by his Deputy, Prof Kithure Kindiki, ruling party United Democratic Alliance (UDA) chair Ms Cecily Mbarire and Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku, Mr Gachagua had in his corner former Attorney-General Justin Muturi and former Embu County Senator Lenny Kivuti.

In the mini-poll, President Ruto's candidate Leonard Muthende trounced Mr Gachagua's candidate Newton Kariuki with a margin of 494 votes. While Mr Muthende garnered 15,802 votes, Mr Kariuki got 15,308 votes.

Pundits expected the vote to be a protest vote against President Ruto, who amassed 87 per cent of the vote in the 2022 General Election in Mt Kenya, but which was expected to have dipped following the impeachment of Mr Gachagua.

Mr Muthende's acceptance speech did not leave doubt that President Ruto was his driving force.

“My gratitude also goes to Dr Ruto, whose solidarity and encouragement greatly contributed to this victory,” he said.

Trap? 

Mt Kenya–based political analyst Samuel Wang’ombe said Mr Gachagua was most likely played into a trap.

“President Ruto appears to have thrown a bait at Mr Gachagua, who proceeded to swallow it whole. The win has now most likely given Dr Ruto an idea of how to control the Mountain as Gachagua goes around singing a disharmonised song of Wantam,” said Mr Wang’ombe.

Mr Wang'ombe said President Ruto has taught Gachagua that “it takes more than a mouth to win an election.”

“Gachagua was even played to drop his strong DCP candidate Duncan Mbui in favour of Mr Kariuki of DP… not realising that the government intended to creep behind his back and sponsor Mr Mbui to contest on Chama Cha Kazi, which is an affiliate party of the ruling coalition,” Mr Wang’ombe argues.

Mr Mbui ended up garnering 2,480 votes, which served to make the contest more gruelling.

Embu County political analyst Malila Munywoki says the loss has thrown Mr Gachagua back to the drawing board.

“Even leaders who intended to walk away from Ruto on grounds of Gachagua momentum will hold back, rethink, and then decide where best their relevance lies,” he said.

Another reason for Gachagua’s loss has been cited as the choice between development and rhetoric.

In a public debate that Inooro TV hosted on November 23, 2025, for the aspirants, seven out of the nine candidates who showed up agreed that Mbeere North’s majority voters were yearning for a legislator to bail them out of poverty.

Issues raised as affecting the people of Mbeere included water, roads and electricity connectivity, lack of title deeds, low income from agriculture, school dropouts, poor education infrastructure, and police corruption that aggravates insecurity, among others.

“President Ruto’s allies mapped exactly what ailed the area and prioritised promising immediate redress,” said Mr Ruku on Friday morning.

He went on: “We took advantage of the government's desire to win the seat and the goodwill of government departments to unlock perennial problems of water, electricity and roads, and work has since started.”

Pitched camp 

For the period that the campaigns lasted, Mbeere North became a second home for the government as nearly all departments pitched camp in the constituency, listening to problems that needed to be addressed.

“We sold development while our competitors sold promise. We delivered what the voters listed. We are now clear in our minds that what these voters need are services, not slogans,” said Ms Mbarire.

Mr Gachagua has adamantly refused to accept that the loss was fair and square, insisting that the government used handouts, hooliganism and manipulation to carry the day.

“The government resorted to use of goons and heavily armed police in civilian clothes to overturn the will of the people… This sets the stage for serious acrimony ahead of the 2027 General Elections,” Mr Gachagua said.

Another aspect linked to the Muthende win is what Reverend Isaac Muringi, who contested the seat on the United Progressive Party, said that the Gachagua brigade painted the campaigns as a contest between bruised egos, lies, hypocrisy and propagation of enmity.

Prof Kindiki has since moved past the campaigns and the results, saying in his brief speech when he witnessed Mr Muthende being crowned that he was congratulating all winners in the by-elections “after gruelling and incredibly intense campaigns.”

Taking the line of development, Prof Kindiki said: “The winners now assume the crucial role of rallying communities to unite for the collective good, and the heavy lifting to expedite the development agenda of their respective constituents.”

Prof Kindiki, who had promised to help Mr Kariuki get a state job if he lost to Mr Muthende, said: “Those who did not win, you are still leaders in your own right, and your ideas and input are still required in shaping the future of our country.”

Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri, who coordinates a working group lobbying President Ruto to retain Mt Kenya as a 2027 running mate partner, believes Mr Gachagua lost the seat when he premised it as a launching pad for his presidential run.

“Gachagua was telling Mbeere voters to accept unseating Prof Kindiki from the deputy presidency so as to trust the opposition to pursue the same seat in 2027… We have a saying in our region that clearly states a crown is only useful when worn, but the moment it falls, it is scrap metal,” says Mr Kiunjuri.

He went on: “The Gachagua approach was technically flawed, since he was lobbying Mbeere people to make the crown on Prof Kindiki fall so that the region remained as a bidder of scrap metal with a hope of changing it back in 2027… the voters decided to utilise the available crown for now.”

He added that “it now remains to be seen how Mr Gachagua will face the people of Mt Kenya and ask himself whether his politics relate with the aspirations of voters whose essence of living is pursuing a better quality of life.”

Mukurwe-ini MP John Kaguchia, a Gachagua ally, insisted that “the results do not reflect the will of Mbeere North people; it was a fraudulent win delivered through corruption, violence and outright lies.”

Mr Simon Waiharo, who contested on the Umoja na Maendeleo Party, insisted that “both the government and the opposition formations were engaging in voter bribery.”

Mr Munywoki says the campaign script led Mr Gachagua to his fall “since he was allowed to portray himself as a bully who had no cash and no development to offer, hence a noisemaker.”

He says that while the government side was tactical enough to bring in a fresher aspirant, Mr Gachagua went for a third-term MCA who was widely seen as part of the build-up of the problems bedevilling the region.

“The government took eight aspirants who were opposing Mr Muthende in the nominations and gave them jobs… Mr Gachagua went into it facing internal opposition,” he said.

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