President William Ruto shares a light moment with Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga when he visited Siaya County on January 14, 2023.
President William Ruto has adopted a cautious approach as his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) navigates the rough waters of coalition-making ahead of the 2027 General Election.
A fresh demand by the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) to claim the Deputy President’s seat has intensified the political puzzle, forcing Dr Ruto to juggle the interests of his Mt Kenya East base, woo unsettled Mt Kenya West leaders, and keep other regional blocs intact.
In an exclusive interview with the Daily Nation, ODM interim leader Dr Oburu Oginga stated that his party will not settle for anything less than the DP’s position in any coalition arrangement — whether aligned with Dr Ruto’s UDA or the opposition.
“If we have to go for a lower position, it must not be lower than number two (Deputy President) in any formation. That is my take. We should not take less than that,” Dr Oginga declared.
For President Ruto, the timing could not be trickier. Barely a year after his public clash with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua — which culminated in the latter’s impeachment in October last year — signs of friction are now emerging with Mt Kenya East leaders expressing their reservations with any attempts to replace Prof Kindiki.
ODM Party leader Oburu Oginga campaigns for their party candidate in the November 27 Magarini by-election Harrison Kombe, on November 2 2025.
UDA Deputy Secretary-General Omboko Milemba said coalition discussions are fundamentally about negotiation and compromise. He said that ODM is within its rights to assert its preferred position.
“In a coalition, matters are put on the table,” Mr Milemba said. “It is okay for ODM to take a position — but of course, at a later date, we shall meet and look at their proposal.”
“The final harmonised product is what we shall abide by. So, at the moment, we cannot stop them from raising what they believe is their position. But there will be a sitting that will harmonise all other positions,” said Mr Milemba.
UDA Organizing Secretary Vincent Kawaya said ODM’s declaration that it will not settle for anything less than the number two position should not cause alarm, adding that all parties have a right to fight for their space ahead of any coalition agreement.
“The statement by ODM is okay. What happens is that for every election, everybody must fight for their space, raise their stakes, and make demands,” Mr Kawaya said.
He added that negotiations will determine how positions are shared once coalition talks formally begin.
“It’s only at that point that we get to settle and agree on who gets what,” he said.
Mr Kawaya noted that ODM remains a key partner with a significant voter base and deserves to be heard.
“ODM is a major partner with a larger control of the voters, and it’s not wrong for them to make any demands,” he said, adding that only the presidency is guaranteed to UDA as talks on a joint ticket take shape.
The situation presents President Ruto with a political conundrum. On one hand, he must reassure Mt Kenya East leaders — who are adamant that Prof Kindiki should remain on the 2027 ticket — that their support remains a priority.
On the other hand, he is eyeing a wider coalition that includes ODM, a party whose growing demand for the deputy presidency could upset established regional arrangements.
But even as Mr Milemba remained cautious on the subject, a group of UDA Members of Parliament from Prof Kindiki’s Mt Kenya East backyard has dismissed ODM’s demands. They warned Dr Ruto against dropping the DP from the 2027 ticket.
UDA Deputy Secretary-General Omboko Milemba.
“Our message to the president is clear — Mt Kenya East stands firmly behind him, but our loyalty is tied to Kindiki’s place in the leadership structure,” said Buuri MP Mugambi Rindikiri.
“For decades, our region has supported others to rise to national leadership. Now that one of our own holds a top position, no one should attempt to take it away. ODM should forget about that seat because it is not up for grabs,” he added.
Speaking during a grassroots leaders’ consultative meeting on Monday, MPs Rindikiri, Mpuru Aburi (Tigania East), George Mutunga (Tigania West), Dan Kiili (Igembe Central), Julius Taitumu (Igembe North), Shadrack Mwiti (South Imenti), Nominated MP Dorothy Muthoni, and Meru Woman Representative Karambu Kailemia — cautioned that any attempt to replace Prof Kindiki would be “political suicide” for the president.
They accused ODM of trying to arm-twist President Ruto into ceding the DP’s position as part of a new power-sharing deal.
“Our brothers from the lake region must understand that this position belongs to Mt Kenya East,” said Mr Aburi. “We are ready to defend it in 2027 and beyond. We have waited too long to be recognised, and we will not allow this opportunity to slip away.”
Their warning underscores growing unease in Dr Ruto’s inner circle — especially in Mt Kenya East — over reports that ODM is demanding a top seat in any 2027 coalition arrangement with Kenya Kwanza.
The MPs said that the DP position is non-negotiable. “We will not entertain any plot to remove Kindiki,” said Mr Mutunga. “The president should ignore power-hungry voices pushing for that. We have the votes and the unity to bargain with anyone who respects our position.”
The latest rebellion puts President Ruto in a delicate bind. Having lost Mr Gachagua — once his strongest Mt Kenya defender — the president now faces another storm from the Mountain that powered his 2022 triumph.
Mr Gachagua’s ouster last October left Dr Ruto scrambling to consolidate his support base in the region.
The elevation of Prof Kindiki, a respected law scholar and former Tharaka-Nithi senator, was widely seen as a move to pacify Mt Kenya East and prevent the larger Mt Kenya bloc from fracturing.
Deputy President Prof. Kithure Kindiki.
But ODM’s sudden declaration that it will not accept “a lesser position than Deputy President” has reopened old wounds, with Mt Kenya leaders interpreting it as a direct challenge to their newfound political prominence.
The uproar was triggered by Dr Oginga, who is expected to be confirmed as ODM leader by the National Governing Council on November 13 to replace his brother, Raila Odinga, who died in India on October 15 while undergoing treatment.
Dr Oginga, who is also the Siaya senator, said that the party is preparing for 2027 with a clear strategy — to stay in government and negotiate from strength, not sympathy.
“ODM is done being in the opposition,” Dr Oginga said. “In 2027, we will either field our own presidential candidate or produce the running mate in any coalition.”
His remarks — the strongest yet from the ODM hierarchy since Raila’s death — are reshaping the succession conversation both within party and across the ruling coalition.
Political observers say Dr Oginga’s comments could upset Dr Ruto’s delicate coalition calculus, especially after months of carefully nurturing the broad-based government that now includes key ODM figures in the Cabinet, such as John Mbadi (Treasury), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), Hassan Joho (Mining), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives) and Beatrice Askul (EAC).
“Ruto has spent the last year trying to stabilise his administration by absorbing opposition figures. But this new demand from ODM puts him in a political trap — he must either appease ODM and risk alienating Mt Kenya, or defend Mt Kenya and risk losing ODM’s growing support,” says advocate Chris Omore.
Indeed, the Mt Kenya East rebellion mirrors the tension that built up last year before Gachagua’s impeachment. Then, too, local leaders warned that the President risked alienating his base through perceived betrayal and over-centralization of power in Nairobi.
This time, the script feels eerily familiar.
“The President should not repeat the mistake of underestimating the mountain,” said Ms Muthoni, the nominated MP. “We will fully support him for a second term, but when his time is done, our eyes will be on Kindiki for the top seat.”
She added that since independence, Mt Kenya East has never produced a president — and 2032 will be their turn.
Dr Oginga’s push for the deputy presidency also signals a deeper recalibration within ODM following Odinga’s death. The Siaya senator insists that ODM’s participation in Ruto’s government is guided by a 10-point memorandum of understanding signed with UDA on March 8, 2025 — focusing on governance, inclusion, and implementation of the NADCO report, not 2027 succession politics.
“This participation does not talk about 2027. It is about implementing people-oriented issues. Once those are fully implemented, 2027 will take care of itself,” he said.
He, however, added that ODM remains free to explore other alliances if the partnership fails. “We are not tied. If we feel shortchanged, we are free to talk to anyone else. But if this partnership works, nothing prevents us from working together again.”
For Mt Kenya East, Prof Kindiki’s position has become more than a political appointment — it’s a symbol of recognition for a region that often felt overshadowed by its western counterpart. His elevation to deputy president after Gachagua’s impeachment was celebrated as a long-overdue moment of political redemption.
“Our unity around Kindiki is not just about power-sharing — it’s about fairness and recognition,” said Dan Kiili. “He has worked hard, remained loyal, and represents the aspirations of our people.”
Any move to replace him, they warn, would be interpreted as betrayal and could trigger another round of political instability for the President — this time from his own side.
Within ODM, Dr Oginga’s statements have also sparked debate. Some leaders, such as Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, have maintained that the party has yet to make a decision about 2027, while others — including Mbadi and Wandayi — continue to work closely with Ruto’s administration.
Dr Oginga downplayed these contradictions. “Those in government can speak for themselves, but not for the party,” he said. “Our emphasis is on building ODM so that it can negotiate from a position of strength. Nobody takes a weak party seriously.”
He added that the late Odinga’s decision to work with Dr Ruto was a deliberate attempt to stabilise the country after months of deadly protests. “Raila saw that the demonstrations were pushing the country towards instability. He told us joining hands with Ruto was the only way to avert chaos. And he was right.”
With both ODM and Mt Kenya East staking claims on the deputy presidency, the stage is now set for a high-stakes political duel that could redefine the alliances leading to 2027.
For President Ruto, whose approval ratings in parts of Mt Kenya have already taken a hit due to economic pressures and perceptions of betrayal, balancing the competing demands from ODM and the mountain may prove his toughest test yet.
“Ruto cannot afford to lose the mountain twice ahead of the next poll,” adds Mr Omore. “The first time was Gachagua — and it cost him credibility. If Kindiki feels undermined, or Mt Kenya East feels shortchanged, it could fracture the vote base he needs for re-election in 2027.”
As Kenya inches closer to another election cycle, both sides appear to be positioning themselves early. ODM is signalling that it will not play second fiddle again, while UDA’s Mt Kenya East wing is warning that power-sharing must not come at their expense.
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