For Deputy President William Ruto, getting the endorsement of United Democratic Alliance (UDA) to be the party’s presidential candidate in the August 9 elections was the first in a long line of hurdles, the most notable of which must be picking a running mate.
Pundits have likened the running mate conundrum to a political headache that cannot be managed with painkillers — only with surgery.
Top on his list of worries is how to relate with fringe parties, especially those in Rift Valley, Mt Kenya and Western regions, whose votes he is banking on, but which he is on record dismissing as “village parties.”
The parties have refused to dissolve and join UDA, insisting that they have no problem supporting Dr Ruto as their presidential flag-bearer, but must field candidates in the other five seats — governor, senator, woman representative, MP and county assembly member.
In a recent TV interview, Dr Ruto said some of those parties were pushing for “zoning”, where parties perceived to be strong in certain counties would be allowed to exclusively field candidates on behalf of the umbrella Kenya Kwanza Alliance.
Such an arrangement, said UDA secretary-general Veronica Maina, is unacceptable because it undermines the outfit’s image as a national party.
She said UDA would continue to engage with the parties, though time is not on their side, as nominations are underway and all UDA affiliate parties have collected nomination fees from aspirants. On relations with fringe parties, Kiambu County is a case study of Dr Ruto’s dilemma. Senator Kimani Wamatangi, former governor Ferdinand Waititu and Thika Town MP Wainaina wa Jungle are all eyeing the UDA ticket in the gubernatorial race. They are to face off with Gatundu MP Moses Kuria (Chama Cha Kazi) and former governor William Kabogo of Tujibebe Wakenya Party.
“Whoever gets the UDA ticket has to face off with rivals in affiliate parties, this defines poor strategy. Dr Ruto’s main competition is supposed to be the Azimio la Umoja Movement candidate, who in Kiambu is supposed to be Governor James Nyoro,” says political analyst Harman Manyora.
“If UDA competes with itself, chances are that Azimio la Umoja will gain a huge mathematical advantage. That is Dr Ruto’s first headache.”
The Service Party of former Cabinet Secretary Mwangi Kiunjuri is also waiting in the wings in Mt Kenya, while in the Rift Valley there is another affiliate party, Chama Cha Mashinani led by former Bomet governor Isaac Ruto, who is seeking to recapture the seat.
And that headache is preceded by the problem of carrying out transparent UDA primaries, given that Registrar of Political Parties Anne Nderitu has said that those who feel aggrieved can contest as independent candidates.
“The Deputy President post belongs to Mudavadi for reasons of founding a strong and cohesive contest ticket in the Kenya Kwanza alliance,” said Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala. “Western adds a lot of value to the Kenya Kwanza Alliance and Dr Ruto stands a better chance [of winning] with Mudavadi as running mate.”
On his part, Murang'a Senator Irungu Kang’ata said the running mate slot belongs to Mt Kenya and Murang’a County in particular.
“In fact, we have endorsed Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro and Kandara MP Alice Wahome to be our preferred nominees for the position of Deputy President. But, generally speaking, the position belongs to us and we are busy cementing our support for UDA on that foundation,” he said.
Others being mentioned as potential running mates in Mt Kenya are Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, Tharaka-Nithi Senator Kithure Kindiki and National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi, who is campaigning for the presidency on a Democratic Party ticket. While these names already present a headache, the other hurdle for Dr Ruto is that Tujibebe Wakenya’s Mr Kabogo has declared that he is the one to replace President Kenyatta as the Mt Kenya kingpin.
“[Mr Kenyatta] is my friend and, as he is retiring [as President], he should also step down as Mt Kenya spokesman and give way to me,” Mr Kabogo said, adding: “I have what it takes and was born with the same, if not more, leadership qualities as his. I will be the one to take over.”
With such hardline declarations, Dr Ruto will likely struggle for cut and dried answers.
“Mr Mudavadi is important in Kenya Kwanza because he can bring in the votes that might make the difference between Dr Ruto and Raila Odinga....he might bring in 300,000 votes at most since he cannot beat Mr Odinga in Western,” said career administrator Joseph Kaguthi.
“Mt Kenya has the potential to give Dr Ruto about 10 times more votes than Mudavadi can deliver. That tells you where the deputy presidency belongs.”
Mr Kaguthi said his long career in administration and government has taught him that the best applicable definition of politics is a “game of banging up numbers to gain an edge in a contest”.
He said analysts appear unanimous in their opinion that Dr Ruto’s chances of winning lie first in uniting the Rift Valley and Mt Kenya regions then moving out to seek extra votes from the other regions.
In the Rift Valley, besides the challenge presented by former Governor Ruto’s CCM, Dr Ruto faces opposition from Baringo Senator Gideon Moi, who is in Mr Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja coalition.
“Our plan is to debunk the notion that Dr Ruto has bagged the Rift Valley region. At best, we want the area to split into two —have him bag 40 per cent and Azimio la Umoja bag the majority. It might sound over-ambitious but that is deliverable,”said former Molo MP Njenga Mungai.
And that arithmetic ushers in another of Dr Ruto’s headaches in the form of an incumbent President Kenyatta who is on the political warpath with him.
Dr Ruto seems to have acknowledged the dilemma of spreading himself too thin and opening too many battlefronts at the same time, which explains his latest public pronouncements that the President should stop taking sides and allow him to compete with Mr Odinga.
The President has declared Dr Ruto unfit to succeed him, saying the most ideal candidate is Mr Odinga. Jubilee secretary-general Jeremiah Kioni has said that “it is not a game of deceit in the President’s expressed desire to block Dr Ruto from succeeding him”.
The President and his loyalists, he said, have identified serious flaws in Dr Ruto to the point that entrusting him with the country’s leadership is tantamount to condemning to the dogs the country and her people.
“We are determined to block him and deliver the country to its deserved safe hands,” he said.
Mr Gachagua, the Mathira MP, said Mr Kioni’s words, taken in the right context, define a plan in Azimio that seeks to use state resources, state agencies and crooks to sabotage Dr Ruto.
“Mr Kioni is a good man who has been recruited into a dirty scheme of blowing off Dr Ruto’s presidential candle. He is a junior person to Dr Ruto but emboldened by the deep state behind him [that is] manipulating his thoughts to make him speak as he does,” Mr Gachagua said.
Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung'wa said: “We are prepared for them...Uhuru is making a grave mistake of believing he is a community deity to be worshipped...and misleading even himself that he [can sway] Mt Kenya regarding the succession battle”
Mr Gachagua said: “They are planning to intimidate our aspirants using security and tax agencies. They are also planning to use the administration officers to rig the vote. But the beauty of it is that being forewarned is being forearmed...we will give them zero chance of succeeding.”
He said Dr Ruto will isolate the President in Mt Kenya, encircle Mr Odinga in all other regions and defeat their alleged scheme.
