President William Ruto is facing a determined opposition and an increasingly restless and angry voter base as he lays the groundwork for his 2027 re-election bid.
Unless he crafts a winning formula to counter rising resistance, he risks becoming the first sitting President to lose a re-election attempt. In the 2022 General Election, he narrowly defeated Mr Raila Odinga by garnering 7,176,141 votes (50.49 per cent) against Mr Odinga’s 6,942,930 votes (48.85 per cent).
Now, as he seeks a second term, he confronts multiple headwinds that, at face value, position him as an underdog—unless he can pull off a political master-stroke.
1. Mt Kenya loyalty flight
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and his allies during a church service at PCEA Emmanuel Matanya Church in Laikipia County on January 19, 2025.
Photo credit: Joseph Kanyi | Nation Media Group
President Ruto has openly acknowledged Mt Kenya’s pivotal role in his 2022 victory, famously saying: “I'm not a fool, drunk or mad not to acknowledge that Mt Kenya made me President.”
After forcing Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua out of office last October, however, the region has grown increasingly disgruntled, culminating in an open rebellion.
Mt Kenya accounted for roughly 47 per cent of his support. Losing the region could cost him more than three million votes, leaving his base severely weakened.
2. Raila Odinga’s 2027 plan
After side-lining Mr Gachagua, President Ruto turned to Mr Odinga as part of efforts stabilise his shaky administration.
ODM party leader Raila Odinga (second left), secretary general Edwin Sifuna (second right) and other top officials after attending the party's Central Committee meeting in Karen, Nairobi on July 29, 2025.
Protesters picket along Kenyatta Avenue in Nairobi on June 25, 2025 during the commemoration of the 2024 Gen-Z protests.
Photo credit: Billy Ogada | Nation Media Group
President Ruto’s administration has increasingly found itself at odds with Gen Z voters, a growing and vocal voting bloc that may prove decisive in 2027. Currently cozying up to the Opposition, this segment—if it mobilises to register and vote—could flip the outcome, making a one-term presidency a real possibility.
The Ruto administration has come under fire for abductions, extra-judicial killings , enforced disappearances and repression of dissent. Mr Odinga and other opposition figures have made this a central campaign issue, demanding justice and compensation for victims.
“If there is one issue that can collapse this regime, it is the State’s notoriety in dealing ruthlessly with dissent,” argues political analyst Peter Kagwanja.
President Ruto has acknowledged making lofty campaign promises in 2022 , saying he was merely trying to inspire ambition. But critics—including Anglican Archbishop Jackson Ole Sapit—have urged him to admit to over-promising and focus on delivering critical priorities. With less than two productive years left before the 2027 campaign heats up, his administration is haunted by a struggling economy, a high cost of living, and unmet basic needs.
According to Kirinyaga Woman Rep Njeri Maina, the administration often inflicts more damage on itself than the opposition ever could.
“Just when the noise around abductions starts to die down, security officers kill another citizen like Albert Ojwang’," she says.
Naivasha MP Jane Kihara adds: “As if that’s not enough, the government keeps stumbling with missteps in education, taxation, and healthcare.”
Mwea MP Mary Maingi observes that the administration has failed to communicate its successes, especially in Mt Kenya.
7. Rethinking the 2027 ticket
With Mt Kenya appearing increasingly hostile, President Ruto may need to reconsider his 2027 running mate. Insiders suggest the President might pick a candidate from Nyanza, Lower Eastern, or Western regions.
“These hints suggest the President is seriously considering reshuffling his alliance to secure re-election,” analyst Herman Manyora told Nation.
8. Rising political tensions
Online platforms have been flooded with videos of some pro-government figures issuing threats of violence—echoing the 2007/08 post-election crisis.
“It’s dangerous and irresponsible. We must remain committed to peace, no matter our political differences,” warns Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo added: “All presidential aspirants, starting with the incumbent, must uphold fair, peaceful electoral processes.”
9. If defeat looms, find a protector
Political analyst Gasper Odhiambo suggests that, if re-election seems unattainable, Dr Ruto should consider backing a different candidate who can protect his and his allies’ interests.
“He should retreat, sponsor a different winnable candidate who can protect his and cronies' interests," Mr Odhiambo states.
10. Preparing for handover
Despite once saying he wouldn’t hand over to “a clueless opposition ,” President Ruto has also made comments suggesting he would accept defeat. Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi recently warned that handing over could mean “surrendering ourselves to jail.” Still, the president has said, “If I get it, I continue. If not, I go back to farming… where’s the problem?”
Ruto: I won’t hand over power to ‘bitter, planless’ Opposition
That statement, at least, offers hope that Kenya’s democracy will hold—whatever the outcome of the 2027 presidential election.
