Inside Ruto's plan to win over Raila's turf ahead of 2027 re-election bid

President William Ruto’s latest visit to Luo Nyanza continues his forays into opposition leader Raila Odinga’s traditional political bastions with an eye on 2027 polls.

The President’s four-day working tour is part of his unrelenting push to eat into Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition-leaning zones.

The political assault adopted by the United Democratic Alliance leader involves targeted development projects in Azimio strongholds, doling out government appointments to politicians and influential figures from Opposition regions, as well as working with Azimio rebels and losers in the August 9 polls.

Additionally, the President has also been keen on popularising his UDA party in the region as he seeks to rival the popularity of ODM.

This has seen the Head of State also open a county office for the ruling party after similar offices in Siaya and Kisumu Counties.

Defiance by seven ODM lawmakers against Mr Odinga has emboldened the President, with hopes that his new found foot soldiers would help him consolidate support in the region.

Following a narrow victory over the former prime minister in last year’s presidential election, President Ruto has not been resting on his laurels as he seeks to penetrate regions that voted Mr Odinga almost to the last man.

President Ruto was declared the fifth Commander-in-Chief in the first round after receiving 7,176,141 votes against Mr Odinga’s 6,942,930 votes, giving a margin of 233,211 votes.

However, the majority of the votes (4.54 million) were from the 10 Mt Kenya counties, and seven North Rift counterparts which contributed 2,938, 309 votes and 1.6 million votes, respectively.

With Mr Odinga mum on whether or not he will make a sixth stab at the presidency in 2027, the Head of State has been increasingly targeting Opposition strongholds in a bid to get a head start against the veteran politician.

The former PM, who unsuccessfully contested for the presidency in 1997, 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022, has indicated that he will soon provide political direction to his supporters.

Nonetheless, the defeats have been very close save for 1997 when the former Lang’ata MP made a debut in the presidential contest.

Last month, reports emerged of a secret push to have Mr Odinga make another stab at the presidency come 2027.

Mr Odinga has remained active in politics taking the Kenya Kwanza government head on over high cost of living and increased taxations, among other issues.

The former premier also told his supporters last year that he is not politically tired despite failing to clinch the presidency for the fifth time during the August 2022 elections.  

“I’m not tired; do you see me giving up? Do you want me to continue? When the time is right, I will tell you what to follow,” the 77-year old told his supporters during a tour of Western region.

Alive to the ongoing, President Ruto has launched a multi-pronged approach to chip away Azimio support base.

The President received a paltry one percent of Luo Nyanza’s 2.1 million votes but had a good showing in Nyamira and Kisii counties where he received more than 200,000 votes, representing an average of 35 percent of cast votes.

Political commentator Prof David Monda, a lecturer at City University of New York, said the President is seeking to make inroads into Mr Odinga’s strongholds while also discharging his duties.

He said Dr Ruto is using his office as a bully pulpit not only to advance his developmental agenda on one hand, but to advance his electoral agenda on the other.

Prof Monda pointed out that having consolidated his strongholds in Mt Kenya and Rift Valley, the President is now keen on making forays into Mr Odinga's turf to try and win a larger percentage of the vote from these regions to further strengthen his hand looking to his incumbency bid for re-election in 2027.

“The office of the President garners intense media coverage. Any activity the president engages in as chief executive also bears dividends for him as campaigner in chief for the KK alliance,” said Dr Monda.

“In another sense, these forays into Mr Odinga strongholds can also be seen as a politically offensive strategy,” he added.

In his political tour of Mt Kenya region in August, the President said Mr Odinga is still his main rival in his re-election bid.

The President has been to Nyanza at least six times since he was elected into office starting with October and December last year. This year, he has been in the region in January, March, July, August and is set for another tour starting this Friday.

In January, for instance, President Ruto commissioned Sh3.2 billion worth of projects in road, affordable housing, water and irrigation projects in Homa Bay County.

During the tour, the Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua let slip the plan, saying the projects the Kenya Kwanza government intends to implement in Nyanza have an expected return on investment.

The DP said what the government is doing in Nyanza is meant to build a friendship with voters “as we prepare for the next election”.

“We need to develop a friendship. I am sure you will vote for us,” Mr Gachagua said. 

The Head of State has also been using ICT cabinet secretary Eliud Owalo to traverse the region with development goodies.

Nevertheless, several Luo Nyanza political leaders have poured cold water on the President’s development tours, saying the numerous visits will amount to nothing politically.

National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi downplayed the political influence of the visits by the President. Mr Wandayi said the region cannot be easily swayed by mere visits by the President.

“Luo Nyanza is part and parcel of the Republic of Kenya. He's therefore free to visit it anytime. Moreover, the Luo people are renowned for their hospitality. We love visitors,” said the Ugunja lawmaker.

He added, “However, visitors don't easily change our perception and attitudes since we're fiercely principled people.”

Homa Bay Senator Moses Kajwang’ said the region had presented the President with a detailed development memorandum during his previous visit and expect him to update locals on progress made in implementing them.

“We don't expect new promises and we also won't present a new memorandum. We expect him to update residents on progress made in fulfilling the promises,” said Mr Kajwang’.

“On politics, we will continue to disagree until the bipartisan talks produce a workable plan to reduce the cost of living and to address injustices perpetrated by state organs. The people of Nyanza will welcome him not as beggars but as stakeholders in the republic,” he added.

But Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo, one of the rebel MPs, said the visit is part of the President agenda to build a unified nation. He said his constituents are excited with the visit since it will come with development projects for the locals.

“As a president his first prerogative is to accelerate development across Kenya Nyanza included, so we welcome his visit with both arms and to build a unified nation. I can tell you there is a lot of excitement on the ground,” said Mr Odhiambo.

The bag of goodies has also been extended to Western and the Coast regions, political strongholds of Mr Odinga.

President Ruto has pledged to fast track the completion of the Sh39 billion Dongo Kundu Special Economic Zone, addressing historical land injustices at the Coast by dealing with absentee landlords as well as reversing legal and administrative changes over the use of the standard gauge railway ensuring the return to Mombasa of major operations that had been shifted to Naivasha and Nairobi.

Dr Ruto saw his tally shoot up at the Coast from the 287,066 they recorded in 2017 to 324,353 as Mr Odinga’s tally in the region dropped from 801,031 in 2017 to 648,834.

President Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Alliance also won governorships in Kwale (Fatuma Achani) and Lamu (Issa Timamy).

The President’s forays have also been extended to the Western region where he has also made at least seven visits since assuming office launching development projects in the company of his deputy, and a host of leaders from the region including Moses Wetangula, and Musalia Mudavadi, who ditched Mr Odinga ahead of last year’s polls.

Disguised as development tours, politics have, however, taken center stage with DP Gachagua claiming that 2027 elections will be a walk in the park for Ruto who will be eyeing a second term.

Different political pundits believe the many visits by the President are meant to ring-fence his support in the region ahead of the 2027 duel as a fallback plan in case Central Kenya will not support his re-election.

The Head of State has been to Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, and Vihiga with a bag of goodies running into billions after a favourable showing in the 2022 elections.

In Western, Dr Ruto garnered 629,552 votes, close to three times the 242,000 votes UhuRuto had in 2017, in a region where Mr Odinga has enjoyed massive support in his past presidential bids.

The UDA boss has also been using State appointments to wrestle the vote bloc from the opposition.

Former Malindi MP Aisha Jumwa was appointed as Public Service Cabinet Secretary while Dr Ruto pushed for ex-Mombasa senator Omar Hassan as MP at the Arusha-based East African Legislative Assembly.

Former governors Amason Kingi (Kilifi) and Salim Mvurya (Kwale), who were made principals in Kenya Kwanza Alliance to counter Mr Odinga’s stranglehold of the Coast, landed plum government appointments as Senate Speaker and Blue Economy Cabinet Secretaries, respectively. 

There have also been appointments of individuals from the region in State agencies and parastatals with former Chief of Defence Forces Samson Mwathethe appointed as Non-Executive Chairperson of the Kenya Forestry Research Institute.

During a five-day agricultural show in Mombasa in November last year, DP Gachagua lifted the lid on their intention to wrestle some of Mr Odinga’s strongholds in preparations for 2027.

“We are hopeful that you will abandon the person you have been supporting because we have good plans for this region,” Mr Gachagua told residents.

“We have given you cabinet secretaries – Salim Mvurya (Mining) and Aisha Jumwa (Public Service) – principal secretaries, Senate Speaker (Amason Kingi) and we are still going to give you more,” said the DP.

Similar appointments have also been extended to the Western region with President Ruto appointing Renson Mulele Ingonga, a son of Western Kenya, as the new Director of Public Prosecutions.

Dr Ruto also picked Andrew Mukite Musangi, another Western Kenya native, as Chairman of the Central Bank of Kenya.

The appointments of Mr Ingonga and Musangi are part of similar appointments by the President in the Western region.

Nyanza region has also benefited from similar appointments with CS Owalo and Principal Secretaries Alfred K’Ombundo (Trade), Dr Raymond Omollo (Interior) and Joseph Mutari (Social Protection) topping the lot.

Dr Ruto, a week ago appointed former National Police Service (NPS) Spokesperson Charles Owino as the new Chairperson of the Kenya Institute of Mass Communication (KIMC) Council.

At the same time, the President has also launched political overtures other regions seen as battlegrounds by wooing leaders who worked with Mr Odinga in the 2022 polls.

A majority of North Eastern leaders led by Senator Ali Roba have also ditched Mr Odinga after he lost the presidency.

The advances have also seen several leaders ditch Azimio to work with the Kenya Kwanza government including former Kisii governor Evans Ongwae, who has been Mr Odinga’s point man in Nyanza and was his chief campaigner in the region in the August 9 presidential campaigns.

Several leaders elected on ODM ticket have also publicly been working with the government including Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda, Shakeel Shabir (Kisumu Town East) and Caroli Omondi (Suba South).

Others are Odhiambo (Gem), Gideon Ochanda (Bondo), Phelix Odiwour aka Jalang’o (Lang’ata) and Mark Nyamita (Uriri).

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