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Is Raila a double agent in Gachagua's Nyanza tour popularity?

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Gladys Wanga, Homabay Governor (Left) and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in a dance at Magunga in Homabay County on August 29, 2024.

Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo| Nation Media Group

For a man who had for the past two years been dismissed by his detractors as lacking relevance outside his Mt Kenya base, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has stirred political waters by making a strong show in the Nyanza region.

Accompanying his boss, President William Ruto on a tour that spanned seven days (three in Kisii and four in Luo Nyanza), Gachagua appeared to win unconditional warmth from residents of the region that has overwhelmingly backed opposition leader Raila Odinga.

According to President Ruto's inner circle, the move has presented a political problem as to how the man, who three months ago was fighting off a plot to impeach him, had transformed his political fortunes.

Trans Nzoia Governor Mr George Natembeya on Saturday told Nation.Africa that "there is a wave of maturity that is sweeping across voters; only leaving politicians as agents of political bad manners".

"Mr Gachagua as a national leader as per definition of the constitution needs to be spared those tirades thrown his way now and then by his fellow government colleagues," he said.

"Mr Odinga will never sponsor bad reception to anyone carrying the tag of authority, his loyalists are also quick to read the national mood of politics and will always behave accordingly."

But others say the Deputy President has won his way into the masses through persuasion and character development.

"It might be something to do with his revamped political behaviour. Give it to him, Gachagua has undergone a 180 degree political character development and the good thing about it is his foresight of sharing his reformation with the masses," says political analyst Gasper Odhiambo.

"The DP was first rated as a political fool, but every dawn he has continued to present himself as a master of comebacks, presenting new and dynamic problems to the president's men who have been stalking him to 'slay' him," Odhiambo said.

"For the past three months we have wrestled in the public court with the president's schemers who have been trying to paint our boss as a tribal bigot befitting impeachment and possible jail term if not the hangman's noose," said an insider in DP Gachagua's camp.

He said that from attempting to link the second in command to treason by allegedly using Gen Z protests to overthrow the president, staging an impeachment scheme, punishing him with budgetary cuts, and branding him an isolationist, the reception he has been accorded by audiences in opposition zones have surprised many.

He claimed the National Assembly Majority Leader, Kimani Ichung'wa, sought to try and steal the thunder from the Deputy President.

"That is how on day three of the Luo Nyanza visit, Mr Ichung'wa commenced attacks against the DP by portraying him as a disgruntled crybaby, who even after Mt Kenya had been given eight cabinet slots, was still blackmailing the president for more benefits," claimed the source.

Mr Ichung'wa even delivered a deft speech in Nyanza about "a man who would end up getting snared by the traps he had set up for Raila Odinga".

Mr Gachagua had in the early days of the Kenya Kwanza government publicly declared that he had set traps in State House to stop Mr Odinga and his loyalists from getting to the proximity of power. 

With President Ruto having since embraced Mr Odinga and handed him six slots in his cabinet, it was highly anticipated that Mr Gachagua would get a negative reception, especially from Luo Nyanza.

But it was not the case with Jubilee Party Secretary General Mr Jeremiah Kioni saying that "anyone competing with President Ruto for ground popularity will emerge the winner regardless of who that person is."

"The earlier three-day tour of the mountain where they visited Embu, Kirinyaga, and Murang'a counties brought out a picture of his diminished popularity," Kioni said.

However, former Gatanga MP Mr Nduati Ngugi said "Mr Odinga could not have afforded to portray his region as intolerant at a time he is bidding for the African Union Commission seat".

"Mr Odinga being a suave politician knows 2027 might present new dynamics that might see his bedrock need Mt Kenya region as a coalition partner given that our collective Azimio la Umoja one Kenya coalition party chairman is former President Uhuru Kenyatta," said Ngugi.

To that end, Mr Ngugi believes that Mr Gachagua was a beneficiary of political good manners demanded by circumstances "and a perception that he is more people-centric than his boss who had dismissed Gen Z protestors as criminals".

In the protests that saw the president drop Finance Bill 2024, dissolve the cabinet, and order investigations into those he branded as criminals out to execute a treasonous plot, Mr Gachagua maintained that "these are our children expressing a genuine concern occasioned by our lack of inclusivity being framed to look like criminals".

Former Bahati MP Kimani Ngunjiri argued Mr Gachagua is not a political pushover and has raw instincts.

"It was not by accident that he ended up being a running mate. Unless there are people in his political life who want to pretend that what they had seen in him can easily be fought and trashed,” he added.

Maragua MP Mary wa Maua told Nation Africa that part of the warm reception that Mr Gachagua was accorded must be bred from his remorsefulness. 

"Mr Gachagua went to Odinga's bedrock having publicly said sorry to Uhuru Kenyatta, supported the broad-based cabinet, endorsed Odinga's candidature for AUC, and was even dancing to their music. There was practically no reason for Mr Odinga loyalists to resent the DP," the lawmaker added.

Laikipia East MP Mr Mwangi Kiunjuri told Nation.Africa on Sunday that "Mr Gachagua is now getting back on track by admitting that Mt Kenya region is in government and supporting its core agenda".

Kiunjuri said the alternative to that is being in opposition and fighting the government.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino told Nation.Africa that "Odinga disciples are a reasonable and only riot when there is a clear case of provocation and will never deliberately do what baba does not stand for".